Toward the end of the Penguins' training camp this past fall, it was fair to wonder if P.O Joseph had a solid enough foundation to be an everyday NHLer. His career had reached a chokepoint, and it was time for the cards to fall one way or the other. Several months later, Joseph has established that he belongs.
To what extent remains to be seen, but make no mistake: Joseph's floor is comfortably that of a No. 6 defenseman.
As Joseph was emerging earlier in the season, Mike Sullivan made note of Joseph's willingness to take what the game gives him rather than trying to do too much as a big factor. As time went on, it became even more clear that Joseph was no longer trying to prove that he belonged, but simply going out there and playing his game. He started to command the puck with authority versus playing hot potato as he had in his first stint. He coolly evaded pressure before skating the puck out of the defensive zone himself or springing the forwards with stretch passes that are on the money far more than you could hope from a defenseman that low on the depth chart.
Think Ron Hextall's relieved there weren't any general managers out there who took Joseph off his hands before the season began?
Even if Joseph isn't in the Penguins' long-term plans (which is a discussion for another time), his value has to be considerably higher now than it was then.
Although Brian Dumoulin's been playing better -- not exactly a high bar to clear -- in recent weeks, you've probably asked yourself why his role hasn't been diminished to give Joseph more ice time. It's a question I've pondered myself.
With both Kris Letang and Jeff Petry healthy, Joseph doesn't see action on either power-play unit, and he hardly ever gets sent out on the penalty-kill. Dumoulin will inherently get more ice time than Joseph on special teams since he's the team's most frequently-used penalty-killer, but what about during even-strength play? Well, Dumoulin still sees the ice quite a bit more.
Here's a look at their game-by-game ice time at even-strength:
Joseph's averaging a little more than 13.5 minutes at even-strength. Dumoulin, averaging just shy of 17 even-strength minutes per game, has only four games all season in which he played less at evens than Joseph's average. That ... really doesn't add up from a deployment standpoint. At least not on the surface.
As much as Sullivan and Co. might want to force it or hold out hope that Dumoulin's play will somehow revert to the reliability he displayed for many seasons, the odds of that happening are about as good as the odds of Mika Zibanejad winning a board battle against Sidney Crosby: Really, really low.
Not that I necessarily do or don't agree with the rationale, but my understanding of Joseph not being given an increased role is that his defensive work has been a bit of an issue. That sounds funny considering the liability Dumoulin has been in his own end, but that doesn't make it untrue.
Of the team's regular defensemen this season, the rate at which Joseph is on the ice for expected goals against (2.84 per hour) during 5-on-5 play is second-worst on the team. The same goes for the rate at which he's on the ice for shots against (33.5 per hour). Among all NHL defensemen, Joseph's isolated impact toward his team's ability to limit quality chances against at even-strength ranks in the 9th percentile -- well below replacement-level.
OK, so that's something. What makes it more interesting is that the quality of competition Joseph has faced isn't all that high, meaning middle-of-the-lineup and depth players are generating much of what the Penguins allow with Joseph out there.
Thanks to HockeyViz, we can see where and how frequently opponents are shooting during Joseph's 5-on-5 ice time:
HockeyViz.com
That giant red blob at the net-front isn't a great sign for Joseph's defense around the crease. His size was always a knock before he broke into the league and, while I think he's done a good job of adjusting to physicality at the NHL level, he's definitely outmatched in that area.
His in-zone coverage can also leave a bit to be desired:
Recently against the Ducks, Joseph engaged physically with Ryan Strome in the defensive zone, but soon got knocked off balance and lost his footing as he fell. It created a complete breakdown in the defensive coverage, and Joseph's recovery was just as poor as his initial screw-up. Chad Ruhwedel was flush to the ice attempting to take away a backdoor pass. Evgeni Malkin had the skater on the backdoor marked, but Joseph tried rushing back to his own net instead of reading the situation and picking up a man.
He was more concerned with getting back to a hypothetical spot where he thought he should be. It proved costly, as the eventual scorer's time and space could have been taken away by Joseph had he made a better read.
Now, I don't want to be overly harsh here about Joseph falling, but it's not a nothing-burger. It's fair to assume his size will prevent those plays from disappearing from his game entirely.
Joseph's poor defensive impacts aren't entirely limited to his in-zone defensive work. Sometimes it's been loose transition defense, too:
This one's frustrating because Joseph was trying to play it safe, but for no good reason. He wanted to make sure he was back upon the Canucks gaining possession, but Vancouver already had one forward out of the zone and up the ice, and they were marked by Ruhwedel. It was a perfect opportunity for Joseph to gap up and apply pressure before the Canucks could exit the zone, but he instead took a putrid angle that allowed them to waltz out with ease.
That putrid angle set the stage for the rest of the sequence. Because of it, Joseph's gap was also far too loose as the Canucks reached the red line. By then, a quick move to the inside got Joseph to cross his feet over, at which point the carrier immediately went back the other way and burned him to the outside as they raced down and scored.
This is what it looks like when Joseph takes an efficient angle on the puck carrier to keep them to the outside before trying to seal them off along the wall:
It wasn't all that pretty, but Joseph's capable of getting the job done. It's just about doing it on a consistent basis. Transition defense is the one area he'll really want to shore up if his in-zone work isn't going to get considerably better.
It's only fair to mention that while he's been pretty poor defensively, he's making up for all of it and then some with his offensive impact. This isn't a case where his defense is crushing the overall process or results, just limiting them.
The reality is that the Penguins probably aren't going on a deep playoff run if Dumoulin is playing in a top-four role. Crazier things have happened, but it seems overwhelmingly unlikely. So even though Joseph's defense is a blemish on his candidacy for more minutes, it would behoove the Penguins to get creative and give Joseph some more rope while they still have the opportunity to experiment.
