It's probably safe for the Pirates' fringe roster players to take a sigh of relief, albeit for a brief moment.
This winter has certainly been one of the most active for the Pirates in some time. Andrew McCutchen, Rich Hill, Austin Hedges, Vince Velasquez, Ji-Man Choi, Carlos Santana, Jarlín García, Dauri Moreta... if you wanted some roster overhaul after a 100-loss season, you got it. The roster looks significantly better than it did a year ago, and it should get better as the year goes on and more prospects are promoted.
For now, though, it looks like the 40 man roster moves are done. It seems very unlikely that a Bryan Reynolds trade materializes anytime soon, and while the Pirates are still looking at the free agent market, their focus is more on minor-league deals.
“We’d still like to add, maybe more likely non-roster at this point," Ben Cherington said Friday. "It’s just looking to add some depth in different areas. We are engaged with some players on non-roster deals. We’ll see if we can still do some things there between now and [then]. You never say never, but if we add more, it may be at the non-roster level."
For a couple players on the Pirates' roster, that is some good news. It should give them a chance to get to Bradenton rather than the waiver wire.
With an improved roster comes a roster crunch and more serious competitions for playing time. There are only nine spots in the order and 26 of these major-league jobs available. The Pirates haven't shied away from taking fliers on guys or giving extra opportunities based on their pedigree or tools. Now, they're in a position that if a player doesn't produce, they can more easily move on to someone else on their roster. That makes this a make-or-break year for several players.
Today, we're taking a look at the players who are entering a pivotal year, either for them to play the position they want or just keep their job.
CAL MITCHELL
If there is one thing the Pirates have plenty of, it's young, left-hand hitting corner outfielders. Jack Suwinski enjoyed a bit of a breakout season last year and should have the inside track for a starting job. Canaan Smith-Njigba only played a couple major-league games before a wrist injury cut his season short, but his .387 on-base percentage and 15% walk rate with Indianapolis are evidence that he's patient and matured greatly this past year at the plate. Travis Swaggerty is a former first-rounder who adds a lot of value with his defense and base running.
Mitchell got more runway than most of those corner outfielders, but his major-league stats were lacking. He slashed just .226/.286/.349 with five home runs in 232 trips to the plate with the Pirates, and while he did play better in his September call up, his results were still pretty pedestrian (a .734 OPS in the final month of the season). If he wants to stick in the majors, he's going to have to hit, especially considering he had -4 defensive runs saved and -4 Outs Above Average last year in right field.
There's no room at designated hitter between Ji-Man Choi, Andrew McCutchen and Carlos Santana for Mitchell to expect consistent at-bats there. The corner outfield spots are crowded between Suwinski, McCutchen, the other young outfielders on the roster and utility players like Ji Hwan Bae, Connor Joe and Jared Triolo. He's in a position where if he wants to stand out, he's going to have to hit, plain and simple. He tore up Class AAA pitching last year (.937 OPS). Perhaps he can continue to develop there if needed, but it doesn't look like he has anything that he needs to prove in the minors. It looks more like a question of can he hit major-league pitching, and when would those opportunities come?
Mitchell was left off the roster in a potential Rule 5 year during the 2021 offseason while the Pirates protected Suwinski, Smith-Njigba and Swaggerty. Obviously a lot can change over a year or two, but the Pirates were willing to lose him once before. How safe is his spot if other prospects are ready to reach the majors, especially if it's another outfielder like Matt Gorski?
JOHAN OVIEDO
While some of these players are set to play for their roster spots this year, Oviedo's is a question of what his role will be. The rotation was a key point of focus for the Pirates this winter, and they added a project in Velasquez and a crafty and reliable veteran in Hill. Mix in Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras and JT Brubaker, and that's already a five-man rotation even without Oviedo.
Now that doesn't mean Oviedo is necessarily the odd-man out. He was acquired from the Cardinals with the mindset that he is a starter and that hasn't changed. He should get those opportunities this year, whether that is part of a six-man rotation, as a spot starter, filling in for an injury or just outperforming someone.
But if the Pirates need more starting pitching midseason, they should have a batch ready in the minor leagues between Luis Ortiz, Quinn Priester and Mike Burrows. It does raise the question, what exactly is Oviedo's window of opportunity to establish himself as a starter? And what happens if he loses that job? Is he demoted to the minors or the bullpen?
That determination is probably going to come down to walks and attacking the strike zone. In his first four starts with the Pirates, he walked 14 over 13 2/3 innings. In his last three starts, he walked just two over 17 frames. It's not just walks that were the problem, but long at-bats that could shorten his evening. He had four at-bats his first two starts that lasted eight or more pitches. For reference, Keller had five plate appearances last that long over the final three months of the season.
“I think that’s the big thing is scattered command, and we’ve got to make sure he’s on the plate," Derek Shelton said about him in September. "His stuff is good, but especially against good lineups, if the stuff isn’t on the plate, then it doesn’t play.”
Oviedo has the stuff to be a starter and that's his goal, but he also has a good track record in the bullpen and the rotation could be crowded soon. He's a starter now. That doesn't necessarily guarantee he'll be one at the end of the year.
LIOVER PEGUERO
Perhaps it's not fair to put all too much stock into minor-league results, especially for someone who was just 21 and one of the youngest regulars in the entire Eastern League last year. But for someone who entered the year as a top 100 prospect, Peguero's Class AA results were far from flattering. He hit .259, had a .692 OPS and made 31 errors between his time at shortstop and second base, and while a COVID-19 scare in the majors resulted in him making his debut last season, he dropped off those top 100 lists.
Peguero is in a similar boat to Oviedo. I don't see any way he is let go by the club this year, even if things go wrong in Indianapolis. What's at stake here is major-league opportunity and his position.
Oneil Cruz and Rodolfo Castro project to be the opening day double-play duo. Neither is guaranteed to stick at that position (and defense could be a big reason why), but they were also two of the team's top hitters last year. If it's not them or Bae, there is also Nick Gonzales in the minors and nearing a potential call-up to the majors. And behind Peguero is this year's first-round draft pick, Termarr Johnson, who was just named the top second base prospect in baseball by MLB Pipeline.
Peguero is athletic enough to play other positions, and it's fair to wonder how patient the Pirates will be with his errors compared to Cruz. He did cut down on his whiffs and strikeouts last year in Altoona, and he swiped 28 bags on 34 attempts (82.4%). That's encouraging, especially for someone who probably profiles best as a leadoff hitter, but a .305 on-base percentage is way too low to consider him an option for that role. He can be a solid major-league player, but at some point he has to show that promise on the field for an extended period of time.
TRAVIS SWAGGERTY
I was tempted to underline and italicize Swaggerty's name to kick off this entry. In a year where so many outfield prospects made their debuts, Swaggerty's time with the Pirates in 2022 barely counted as a blip on the radar. And considering the amount of additions the Pirates made to the 40 man roster this winter, this author will admit to speculating whether Swaggerty would be one of those roster casualties.
The former first-round pick took some steps forward last year in terms of approach and handling the mental side of the game, but his results were only ok. A .254/.348/.399 slash line with nine home runs and 20 stolen bases over 458 Class AAA plate appearances is fine, but considering the amount of young outfielders on the roster, being just fine may not cut it. It's why other outfielders like Suwinski, Mitchell and Bligh Madris each earned multiple promotions and plenty of big-league at-bats, while Swaggerty got just a cup of coffee and had to watch his friends get their calls while in Indianapolis.
“It’s out of my control, and I live by, ‘control what you can control,’ ” Swaggerty told me over the phone back in August. He would go on to say that he didn't really get much out of his time in the majors because his stint was so short.
Swaggerty is still just 25, is a good base runner and fielder and has offensive traits that can make him a true big-leaguer. But again, the Pirates have plenty of outfielders on the roster. His pedigree and ok results aren't going to cut it in this environment. His 2021 shoulder injury should be fully behind him now, so the question will be can he find the offensive identity.
DUANE UNDERWOOD JR.
Last year, Underwood posted well-above-average batted ball peripherals (87.8 mph average exit velocity allowed and a 36% hard hit rate) and a strong whiff rate (27.3%) and saw his fastball velocity jump up a couple ticks to almost 96 mph.
And despite those improvements, his overall results were almost identical from the year before: A 4.40 ERA and a -0.66 Win Probability Added.
Underwood has pitched 130 innings out of the bullpen the last two years, and that shouldn't be overlooked. Teams need those innings, even if they yield a pedestrian ERA. It's why he has survived the roster crunch so far.
But the Pirates now have a couple other options in that middle relief role, including Chase De Jong and Wil Crowe. There is some late-inning opportunities available for the group so it's reasonable to assume they will get another look at some point, even if they had better results in that multi-inning role last year.
This is still a young rotation and workload management is still going to be on Shelton and Oscar Marin's mind. The Pirates could use a couple multi-inning relievers, but this pitching staff is finally starting to get some depth. Underwood needs to play up to those peripherals or he could be the odd man out of the bullpen.
FIVE MORE TO WATCH
Tucupita Marcano has one option year remaining and is only 23, but he has had a hard time making the jump to the majors in his brief career. Perhaps it's not a make-or-break year for him, but he needs to take a step this season... Looking at the rotation, I have to wonder what Brubaker's future is with the team. He has stuff, and while inconsistencies have kept him from really breaking out, he is a solid backend of the rotation starter (1.9 fWAR). Could the prospect wave put his job into question midseason? The PIrates got calls on him during the last trade deadline. Do they field those offers more seriously this July if Priester and Ortiz are cruising?... Ryan Vilade is not on this list because he's been on waivers already, but sure. The Pirates obviously see something in him, hanging onto him throughout the entire offseason. How much runway does he get in-season?... Smith-Njigba almost got his own entry, but he hit well before the injury and there are only so many times I can state the Pirates have competition in the outfield... A weird one to close with, but Max Kranick. He's recovering from Tommy John surgery and there's no guarantee he will pitch in 2023. The Pirates booted Blake Cederlind from the roster this offseason after failing to pitch in-season. Moving Kranick to the 60-day injured list will be one of the first transactions the Pirates make in spring training, but that doesn't guarantee him a 2024 spot.
