ALTOONA, Pa. -- It's all about No. 15.
If Drew Allar plays really well in 2023, Penn State can have a terrific season.
If Allar plays OK, then Penn State can still be pretty good.
If Allar struggles and/or can't play for any reason, which hopefully won't be the case, then Penn State could have some big issues.
In trying to come up with a record prediction for next season, I would say everything from 11-1 to 8-4 is in play. There are a whole lot of pieces in place to believe the Nittany Lions, who will be ranked in the preseason top 10, could put together an outstanding season. But since almost all of the eggs will be in the Allar basket, with no real plan B, nobody can say with any degree of certainty whether the Lions will in fact be outstanding, mediocre or somewhere in between.
Here's what I'm considering with my prediction.
THE SCHEDULE
Sept. 2: vs. West Virginia
Sept. 9: vs. Delaware
Sept. 16: at Illinois
Sept. 23: vs. Iowa
Sept. 30: at Northwestern
Oct. 7: Bye
Oct. 14: vs. UMass
Oct. 21: at Ohio State
Oct. 28: vs. Indiana
Nov. 4: at Maryland
Nov. 11: vs. Michigan
Nov. 18: vs. Rutgers
Nov. 25: at Michigan State
Ohio State is a loss. I'm not picking Penn State to win in Columbus, well, pretty much ever.
The trip to Illinois in week 3 is very, very dangerous. Penn State will have more talent than the Illini. But that will be Allar's first-career road start, and it's coming in a Big Ten game against a team that should have a solid defense. That is a very losable game.
Having Iowa the very next week will be tough. The Hawkeyes' offense might make our eyes bleed once again, but they're going to play good defense and will give Allar some tough looks.
Michigan will be good. That game is at Beaver Stadium, and by that point in the season, Allar will have a lot of experience.
Never, ever sleep on a game at Michigan State. The Spartans were terrible this past season and still gave the Lions a tough battle for most of the game. Winning there could be difficult.
THE OFFENSIVE LINE
I cannot believe I'm saying this, but ...
It should be good. A strength of the team.
In other words, hell may have frozen over.
I still can't believe Olu Fashanu opted to return instead of being a potential top 10 draft pick, but Penn State is fortunate the left tackle will be back.
THE RUNNING GAME
Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen are the real deal. I expect them to split carries once again. I expect Allen to be the tougher runner up the gut. I expect Singleton to be the home run hitter.
My concern with the running game and O-line is that defenses will be loading up to stop the run and forcing Allar to beat them. So again, if the young QB plays really well, it will keep defenses honest, and the running game will be effective.
But if Allar struggles with his accuracy or is banged up or whatever, the running game could be slowed down a bit since defenses will be so focused to stop it.
THE RECEIVERS
Getting Dante Cephas and Malik McClain from the transfer portal was MASSIVE. I can see them being worth one or two more wins in the overall record prediction, since having them available will help the other receivers fall into roles they're more suited for.
There could be a dropoff in tight end production with the loss of Brenton Strange. Don't overlook that element, because the wide receivers still may not be excellent, and so if the tight end production drops off, it would be a concern.
THE DEFENSE
I expect it to be very good, because I have great faith in Manny Diaz. Oh, and in Abdul Carter.
But ...
LOSING PORTER AND TIG
Joey Porter Jr. and Ji'Ayir Brown were terrific in the secondary. Having those guys back there made an enormous difference because they could help shut down opposing passing games.
Kalen King will be the shutdown corner, and Storm Duck will be a great addition from the portal. But make no mistake, the secondary will drop off losing Porter and Tig, so the rest of the defense will have to overcome it.
COACHING
Major props to James Franklin, Mike Yurcich and Diaz for coming up with game plans, schemes and adjustments this season. Getting Diaz back for another year is huge.
I believe Franklin made big strides this season in trusting his coordinators and not interfering too much. If he continues to do that, while continuing to be a tremendous CEO head coach, then the entire program will benefit.
OK, SO MY PREDICTION
I'm going 10-2.
The Lions will lose at Ohio State. I see the other loss being either at Illinois or at home against Michigan.
Penn State can go 11-1, but I'm not going that far out on a limb trusting a first-year starting quarterback, no matter how talented he might be.
I can see the Lions going 8-4, with Allar having a lot of ups and downs. But in all honesty, picking 8-4 would be a jerk prediction coming off an 11-2 season, and I'm trying to debunk the BS myth that's been out there for a long time about me that I'm too negative regarding Penn State.
I believe I'm pretty fair. And honest.
I believe 10-2 is a pretty fair and honest prediction for next season, given the gigantic question mark at quarterback.
There won't be a playoff berth next season, in my opinion, but the Lions have a chance to be really good and have all their talented young players continue to develop.
Then, in 2024, if everything goes as planned with the player development, I could see Penn State winning a national championship.
Honestly.
