LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- When a team beats the opposing teams that it should, things tend to fall into place in the big picture.
Pitt is a quality example of this, as it heads into Wednesday's 7 p.m. tip-off at Louisville inside the KFC Yum! Center.
The rankings will be an oft-discussed topic inside this space, especially for as long as Pitt remains a "bubble" team with respect to the NCAA Tournament. The NCAA NET is an all-encompassing tool for measuring a team's success throughout the course of the season, based on a myriad of factors to help determine which team has built a more-quality resume over another.
The constant among all of these formulae nets to one measurement. One measurement which does not need much to be quantified beyond the game: Winning.
Analytics are so driven to the point of pinpointing not just the amount of wins, but the quality in which those wins come by. Thankfully for Pitt, business has been taken care of in not only games it could win, but, in an otherwise under-appreciated aspect, in games in which it should win.
According to the updated-daily NET rankings, Pitt checks in at No. 58, which is eighth in the ACC. Virginia leads the ACC at 15th, followed by Duke (25th), NC State (29th), North Carolina (33rd), Miami (39th), Clemson (49th), and Virginia Tech (55th).
Note this about the above statement: Pitt is 3-2 against those teams, with wins coming against Virginia, NC State, and North Carolina. The two losses were at Duke and against ACC leader Clemson. The Panthers oppose Miami twice, on Jan. 28 and to close the season on March 4, and will play at Virginia Tech once, on Feb. 18.
Why does this matter?
Pitt is 3-2 in "Quadrant 1" games this season, with those three ACC wins factoring in. A "Quadrant 1" opponent is determined by one of three factors: The opponent ranking between 1 and 30 and playing that game at home, ranking between 1 and 50 and playing on a neutral court, or a ranking of 1-75 and playing on the road.
For context: Virginia is 3-3 in Quad 1 games. Duke is 3-4, NC State is 2-3, UNC is 1-6, Miami is 5-1, Clemson is 4-1, and Virginia Tech is 0-2.
So, from a Pitt perspective, that 3-2 is a fine place to be.
Moving to Quadrant 2 (Opponent NET ranking 31-75 at home, 51-100 on neutral floor, or 76-135 on the road), this is where the mild drop-off comes to play for Pitt.
These are not "bad" losses by many stretches, but the Panthers' 2-4 record in such games leaves much to be desired. The losses to West Virginia, Michigan, VCU, and Vanderbilt are in here. Note that these are all non-conference losses, the most-recent Quad 2 loss came to Vanderbilt on Dec. 7, and Pitt has earned a road win over Syracuse and home wins over Virginia and UNC since. This would also factor in the win at Northwestern (NET 59) in November, which, of course, merits another road victory.
"I think we're all focused on every single game and every opportunity," Nelly Cummings said on Monday. "I come from a conference where we had to win it, and we're not going to take any opportunity lightly. We're going to make sure we bring our 'A' game every time we step on the court."
Pitt has opportunities to rectify its record and output from Quad 2 with a game against Miami (which gets bumped to a Quad 1 game when Pitt plays at Miami in March) on Jan. 28.
Here is the real kicker, though. Pitt has taken care of its business when it absolutely has to. The Panthers are a combined 7-0 in either Quad 3 or Quad 4 games, including a 6-0 mark inside Quad 4.
(Quad 3: Opponent NET 76-160 at home, 101-200 on neutral floor, 135-240 on the road. Quad 4: Opponent NET 161-353 at home, 201-353 on neutral floor, 241-353 on the road.)
When looking at an NCAA Tournament resume, even as many as one blemish in a Quad 3 or 4 game can take a resume from the top of the pile and thrown into the shredder. Of the ACC teams ahead of Pitt in the NET, Miami and Virginia Tech each currently have one loss in Quad 3, while Clemson has two losses in Quad 4.
Here are Pitt's remaining games entering Wednesday, sorted by its opponent's respective NET quadrant:
• Quadrant 1: at North Carolina, at Virginia Tech, at Miami.
• Quadrant 2: vs. Miami.
• Quadrant 3: vs. Wake Forest, at Florida State, vs. Georgia Tech, vs. Syracuse, at Notre Dame.
• Quadrant 4: at Louisville, vs. Florida State, vs. Louisville, vs. Boston College.
Winning out in Quad 3 and 4 is obviously ideal, but just three of those nine games are on the road. The "toughest" Quad 3 or 4 road game Pitt will play is March 1 at NET 162 Notre Dame.
"I think the challenge on the road is, really, a lot of teams have the home-court advantage," Cummings said. "So, for us, we like to really just go in there and focus a lot. I think we up our focus a lot on the road because we know the challenge that we're up for."
The average NET ranking of Pitt's next three opponents -- at Louisville, Florida State, and Wake Forest -- is 214. Those are three winnable games to add to Saturday's 71-60 win at Georgia Tech and help build momentum into two tougher games against Miami and at North Carolina.
