The Penguins are the NHL's oldest team, and they looked every bit the part as they blew a four-goal lead and lost, 5-4 in overtime, to the Red Wings here at PPG Paints Arena Wednesday night.
After getting walloped, 5-1, by the Islanders in Elmont, N.Y. less than 24 hours earlier, the Penguins came out buzzing as they potted four goals in the first period. Drew O'Connor opened the scoring on his very first shift, then Jeff Carter brought a two-goal cushion with a power-play tally halfway through the period.
Carter's goal:
It was only four minutes of game action later that Jason Zucker scored just his second goal in 15 games on an impressive individual effort to make it 3-0.
Just look at the assertiveness that was soon nowhere to be found:
Zucker then added another tally before the period concluded for his eighth goal of the season and first on the power play, making it 4-0:
Though they may have benefitted from some luck in getting there, it was exactly the kind of period the Penguins needed after the dud they dropped the night before. If anything, it went a long way toward erasing the sour memory.
Of course, that memory's even more sour now after the Penguins decided their four-goal first period against the Red Wings was enough to coast to victory.
News flash: It wasn't.
Over the final two periods of regulation, the Red Wings out-attempted the Penguins, 54-38, and generated a stout 3.39 expected goals while limiting the increasingly lifeless Penguins to 1.79 expected goals, per Natural Stat Trick. The actual goals, as you're well aware by now, were 4-0 in favor of the visitors.
Then came overtime, in which the Penguins were out-attempted, 4-2. The fourth attempt beat Casey DeSmith for the winner, courtesy of Jake Walman:
Mike Sullivan was so displeased that he addressed the team extensively in the locker room after the game. That's not nothing.
"Coach talked like 10 minutes," a disappointed Evgeni Malkin would say. "We understand, I understand myself, all of the guys know. We lost that game and the fans, I hope, they hate us right now because we can’t play 40 minutes -- the second and third period -- like this."
Incomplete efforts are something that the Penguins struggled with at times through the early goings of the season, most notably when they went on a seven-game losing streak.
There's a blown-lead epidemic going on in the NHL right now, but that doesn't absolve the Penguins from completely shutting down and letting the Red Wings skate them out of the building for the final two-thirds of the game.
"The league is too good, and we need to understand it’s not over when you play just 20 minutes," Malkin said.
Malkin went on to say that not one or two guys, but the whole group shares the weight of what transpired.
"When you score two, three, four goals and everybody wants goals, assists, points," Malkin said before insisting the Penguins thought they had an easy road to victory.
Score effects are a very real thing. It was to be expected that the Red Wings would at least hang around and keep things interesting, but for the Penguins to completely abandon all of the little things that bring them success, that are conducive to winning? After they've trudged that path many a time before?
They were getting beat to loose pucks, they weren't winning nearly enough battles along the wall, and they most definitely weren't taking care of the puck when they had it. The last item was made worse thanks to a lack of proper support in all three zones.
"We just didn’t play the game the right way. It’s as simple as that," Sullivan said of the collapse. "We didn’t play the game the right way, we didn’t manage the game, we didn’t manage the puck. We’re not playing a collective game right now. The game’s too difficult if you don’t play in a five-man unit out there, and for whatever reason the last few games, we’re disconnected. And that’s our challenge, is to fix it."
Is the oldest team in the league simply susceptible to snoozing through these rather inconsequential non-division games in the middle of the season? Are the Penguins just not good enough? A combination of both?
"There’s always issues. That’s pro sports," Sullivan said. "Every team has challenges, they go through ups and downs. So, yeah, do we have challenges? Yeah. I don’t think issues is the right word. I think challenges is the word, and we have some that we’ve got to fix."
One of the biggest challenges the Penguins face right now is that their opponents are regularly shooting the puck more than they do. Raw shot attempt totals aren't always indicative of quality of performance, but it's true that good teams out-attempt the opposition more often than not as a result of controlling play.
After being out-attempted, 73-59, by the Red Wings, the Penguins have now been out-attempted in four consecutive games and nine of their last 14. On the season, the Penguins rank 20th in the NHL with a 49.5% share of shot attempts during all situations.
The Penguins are a little bit more selective with their shot locations, so they aren't going to grade out as well in this regard as a team like the Hurricanes that fires at will, but I'd say it's at least a little concerning that the Penguins' heads aren't even above water in attempts this season.
Expected goals weigh the value of those unblocked shot attempts, and the Penguins rank No. 9 in the league in that metric during all situations, so this isn't some doom and gloom scenario. However, studies have shown that, over time, expected goals percentages will regress -- positively or negatively -- toward shot attempts percentages.
In a pivotal offseason, Ron Hextall moved away from a pair of possession-oriented players on the back end in Mike Matheson and John Marino in order to make the Penguins sturdier defensively and tougher to play against. Whether or not Hextall's right for doing so, this current team isn't anywhere close to as good at suppressing shots or chances as they were last season.
It might be due to age. It might be due to personnel. It's probably a combination of both, but the Penguins are struggling to put together complete performances. Their less-than-stellar defensive work only becomes more glaring on nights like this.
With sweeping roster changes unlikely due to salary cap restraints, answers will have to come from within.
