ALTOONA, Pa. -- Parker Washington. That's why, in a pick 'em game, I'm taking Utah to beat Penn State in the Rose Bowl.
My score: Utes 31, Nittany Lions 26
My feeling is that, without the injured Washington, the team's leading receiver, Penn State's offense will be one playmaker short in an otherwise pretty even matchup between two good teams.
It didn't hurt the Lions that they were without Washington for the final two regular-season games, because, well, Rutgers and Michigan State were terrible. But no Washington means that Mitchell Tinsley has to step up and be the primary outside weapon for the Lions, and while Tinsley is a solid receiver, I just don't view him as a No. 1.
I can make a strong case for Penn State because it has excellent tight ends and two good running backs in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, plus a veteran quarterback in Sean Clifford. So, I can see the Lions scoring a good number of points, even against a Utah team that ranks 19th nationally in total defense.
Penn State ranks 16th nationally in total defense, so this should be a good, close game. But I just see Washington's absence being a big factor here because the Utes will load up against the run and force Clifford and the tight ends to beat them.
Beyond Tinsley, I don't have a lot of confidence in the Lions' other, younger wide receivers.
Utah is without its top pass catcher in tight end Dalton Kincaid (70 catches, 890 yards, 8 TDs), so the Utes could have a tough go of it at times against Penn State's strong defense.
But the Utes have the better quarterback here in Cameron Rising -- better throwing and running than Clifford -- and I see him being a problem for a Lion defense playing without cornerback Joey Porter Jr.
There's also the factor that Utah was in this game just last year and lost a heartbreaker to Ohio State, 48-45, after blowing a lead. So, the Utes have somewhat of a revenge mindset going into this game.
HOW TO BET THE GAME
I went 9-3 against the spread this season, including a streak of seven consecutive wins that ended when I picked a low-scoring game against Rutgers.
• W Michigan State: Spartans +21
• L Rutgers: Under 45
• W Maryland: PSU -9.5
• W Indiana: PSU -13.5
• W Ohio State: PSU +15
• W Minnesota: PSU -5
• W Michigan: Michigan -6
• W Northwestern: NW +28
• W Central Mich: CMU +28
• L Auburn: Auburn +3
• L Ohio: Ohio +27
• W Purdue: over 53.5
The line here is Utah -2.5, and the over/under is 52.5.
I'll give you two picks for the game.
Take Utah to win on the money line of -132.
And if you want to go with a spread: Take the over of 52.5. Again, I've got Utah winning this one, 31-26, for a total of 57.
