All things considered, the Penguins are in pretty decent shape as they emerge from the Christmas break to face the Islanders tonight in Elmont, N.Y.
Their 19-9-5 record is good for third in the Metropolitan Division and fifth in the Eastern Conference, and their plus-19 goal differential ranks eighth in the entire NHL.
At five-on-five, they've been among the league's best at controlling the quality of chances both ways, as their 54.2% share of expected goals is tied for fifth in the NHL, per Evolving-Hockey. However, their five-on-five scoring has dried up a bit recently even though the chances have mostly been there, and that's why their 52.7% share of actual goals ranks 12th. They aren't as stingy as they were a season ago, but assuming the goal scoring comes back around, their output will be plenty enough to compensate.
Sidney Crosby is on track for a historic season at the age of 35. Evgeni Malkin continues to silence his critics with a point-per-game pace at the age of 36. And so long as Jason Zucker stays healthy, the top-six is one of the best across the league and their biggest strength.
It'd be tough to make an argument that they're a Stanley Cup favorite at the moment, but they've comfortably solidified themselves among those on the cusp.
OK, I've buried the lede enough here: The biggest thing holding the Penguins back from a spot among the league's Cup favorites is the utter lack of an effective third line.
When they won back-to-back Cups in 2016 and 2017, they consistently rolled all four lines and relied on forward depth to carry them when the effort of the stars wasn't quite enough for victory. Whereas the current third line can't be relied on for much of anything at the moment aside from the occasional goal off the rush.
The third line, comprised of Brock McGinn, Jeff Carter and Kasperi Kapanen, has played 105 minutes together at five-on-five this season, and they've been:
• Outscored, 5-4
• Out-attempted, 120-83
• Controlled 35.9% of the expected goals
There have been 82 forward lines to play at least 100 minutes together during 5-on-5 action this season. McGinn-Carter-Kapanen's 35.9% share of expected goals ranks 81st.
A third line that merely breaks even in goals and chances won't be enough to push this team toward contention, let alone one that is getting cratered in their own end more often than not.
Carter recently said that there's been "nothing pretty" about the work the third line's been doing. He then later said that their goal is to get the puck out of the Penguins' end and up the ice so the top dogs can do the work.
Is that really the best path forward for a team with Cup aspirations?
That's an acceptable game plan for a fourth line, but for a third line to basically succumb to solely trying not to get scored on? Not going to cut it.
Take a look at where and how frequently the third line has been shooting the puck, via HockeyViz:
HockeyViz.com
The darker the red, the more attempts the Penguins took from that area relative to league-average, and the darker the blue, the fewer attempts the Penguins took from that area relative to league-average.
It's a certifiable ghost town at the net-front and slot area when the third line is on the attack. You don't need me to tell you that spamming shots from the right half-wall -- and almost exclusively from the right half-wall -- isn't going to bear much fruit.
I believe a big reason their offensive output isn't up to snuff is that they really struggle to cycle the puck. There isn't a single adept puck handler on the line, and that becomes glaringly apparent when they consistently struggle to make plays under pressure in the offensive zone.
Perhaps an even bigger reason for their lack of offense is simply how much time they spend in their own zone.
It'd be one thing if the third line were taking care of business defensively, but that hasn't been the case.
Their on-ice defensive metrics among 82 forward lines with 100 minutes together:
• Goals against per hour: 2.84 (54th)
• Expected goals against per hour: 3.26 (73rd)
• Shot attempts against per hour: 68.2 (78th)
A giant chunk of the looks they allow are coming from the heart of the slot:
HockeyViz.com
The darker the red, the more attempts the Penguins allowed from that area relative to league-average, and the darker the blue, the fewer attempts the Penguins allowed from that area relative to league-average.
The volume of quality looks from the middle of the ice doesn't paint a pretty picture of Carter's current skating ability or defensive conscience.
Neither does this clip from earlier this month against the Blue Jackets:
The Penguins made their bed with Carter a year ago. He has a full no-movement clause and is locked in for another season at a $3.125 million cap hit. He's not going anywhere, but that doesn't mean he must be locked in as the team's No. 3 center. While he shouldn't solely carry the burden of the third line's success -- or lack thereof -- there's a year's worth of evidence that he's become a considerable drag on possession and quality hockey.
It seems as though the defensive and transition responsibilities for a center have become too much for Carter to handle at this stage, and it's effectively neutering the third line's ability to cleanly get out of the defensive zone and turn it into offense.
Carter isn't shooting nearly as much as he did last season, but his willingness to shoot and funnel pucks to the net remains one of his best attributes for the Penguins to try and leverage. It would be immensely easier for him to do that playing on the wing.
It's obvious that Carter's ability taking faceoffs is valued -- and rightfully so -- by the Penguins. His 57.6% success rate at the dot this season ranks 11th in the NHL. That can continue to be leveraged even if he's playing on the wing. Simply have him take the draws.
If nothing else, it's a possibility worth exploring, because the status quo isn't the answer.
McGinn's seven goals during 5-on-5 play this season have been a welcome surprise, but he's shooting a career-high 17.5% at full-strength. His previous career-high was 13.7% in 2020-21, and that was after three consecutive seasons below 7%. It's likely to be even more of a struggle for the third line when he inevitably comes back down, even if it's not at a sharp angle.
Kapanen recently had a two-game stretch in which he scored four goals and added an assist, but in eight games since then, has no goals and three assists with only one multi-shot performance. His impact is boiling down to capturing lightning in a bottle. I do think his off-puck play has improved as the season's gone on, but it's certainly not at a point that wows you or justifies his cap hit when he isn't producing.
There are two contextual factors that have contributed to the third line's poor performance, but I'll note that they come nowhere close to absolving their results:
1. McGinn-Carter-Kapanen start 18% of their shifts in the defensive zone compared to just 8% in the offensive zone. Of course, the vast majority of all shifts start on the fly, but the hefty defensive deployment they've received is magnifying their inefficiencies.
2. The defense pairing they've shared the ice with the most is the pairing of Brian Dumoulin and Jan Rutta. Statistically -- and visually, in my eyes -- that's been the Penguins' worst defense pairing this season. While Rutta has mostly been steady defensively, he isn't a puck-mover or all that offensively inclined. Dumoulin's defensive impact has slipped. That, too, becomes magnified when he struggles to get the puck out of the zone. Stylistically, this pairing is the exact opposite of what the third line needs as it's currently constructed.
When Jeff Petry inevitably returns from long-term injured reserve, the Penguins will essentially have no cap space to work with. It's not going to be easy, and it will most definitely take some creativity, but the third line must be addressed in some capacity to push the Penguins closer to contention.
