SAN DIEGO -- The Pirates entered the Winter Meetings by making a team statement that "we look forward to [Bryan Reynolds] having a great season for the Pirates” in 2023. Everything Ben Cherington said in San Diego this week supported that the team is in no rush to trade their star outfielder.
But going based on what I heard from industry sources at the Manchester Grand Hyatt this week, the hotel lobby's guess is Reynolds gets his wish.
And based on the speculation I've heard, a lot of it has to deal with the Pirates' rebuild timeline.
Reynolds has three years of team control remaining. He is under contract for $6.75 million in 2023, and then he has two years of arbitration control after that. The Pirates have traded six key players the past three years when they had just two years of control remaining: Starling Marte, Josh Bell, Joe Musgrove, Jameson Taillon, Adam Frazier and Chris Stratton. It's true the Pirates are hoping to enter a different stage of their rebuild in 2023, so the earlier examples may not be applicable, but for now, that's the precedent.
And while the Pirates are making a deliberate effort to improve the major-league roster and take a step forward in 2023, it's hard to imagine them making a large enough leap from a 100-loss team to a competitor.
Plenty of highly rated prospects will come up in 2023, and if they click in their first full year (like teams like the Braves and Rays recently did), then they could potentially compete in 2024. That's also a big ask for a core of players who will be in either their first or second full season in the majors.
If that team doesn't compete in 2024, Reynolds just has one year of team control remaining. It's reasonable to assume the Pirates would seriously explore trading him in that scenario rather than have him walk away for either a draft pick or nothing at the end of that last year.
The Pirates have believed for a while that Reynolds' team control overlaps with a competitive window, but that overlap doesn't look particularly long unless he signs an extension. And as far as that goes, talks broke down this winter, and from what I've gathered, I wouldn't be too optimistic about them returning to the table anytime soon.
Completing the rebuild and elevating the Pirates to a competitive team is going to be harder without Reynolds. It seems like a real possibility.
MORE PIRATES
2. The Marlins are one of the teams who are interested in Reynolds. They've been linked to him in the past, and they're willing to give up a lot to get him (but apparently not top prospect Eury Pérez). -- Stumpf
3. Heard the Pirates were interested in right-handed reliever Tommy Kahnle, but balked when he started getting two-year offers. Kahnle would end up signing a two-year $11.5 million contract with the Yankees during these Meetings.
And while Cherington has said throughout the winter he's open to signing pitchers to multi-year deals, the industry sources I talked to said there is a clear preference on the Pirates' side to get pitchers on one-year contracts. -- Stumpf
4. And yes, they're still looking for more pitching. And if Derek Shelton's comments that Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis are starting the year in the minors, it probably doesn't bode well for someone like Quinn Priester, who also is a top 100 prospect with limited experience in Class AAA. -- Stumpf
5. A report I got from an analyst on new Pirate pitcher Vince Velasquez: The four-seam fastball is still good, but he's a mess mentally. The Pirates went into this winter looking for pitchers with good four-seamers to try to get more swing and miss. They got someone who fits that profile. Now he could use some confidence. -- Stumpf
6. With the top pick in the draft, the Pirates should have roughly $15 million in their bonus pool for prospects. That's the real haul from winning the draft lottery, and it's only if a bonus if someone like LSU outfielder Dylan Crews jumps out and becomes a clear No. 1 talent. -- Stumpf
7. A change to the major-league coaching staff: Mike Gonzalez, who had served as the team's interpreter for their Spanish-speaking players, is moving down to Florida to become a mental skills coach for the Pirates' farm teams in Bradenton. It's a well-deserved opportunity for a good guy who has been incredibly helpful to the beat writers for years. -- Stumpf
8. Blake Sabol, the player the Pirates lost in the Rule 5 Draft, is probably a 26th guy. Someone who can be an extra catcher, outfielder, pinch-hitter, etc. Really nice young man who is getting a chance at the majors with the Giants. And until he sheds that Rule 5 status. there's always a chance he returns back to the Pirates. -- Stumpf
9. Couple of ex-Pirates spotted at the meetings: Bligh Madris (who went out of his way to say hi and shake the hands of all of the traveling reporters), Jose Bautista (now an agent) and Clint Hurdle. Also heard Neal Huntington was there (now with the Guardians), but I missed him. -- Stumpf
PENGUINS
10. Before he was acquired by the Penguins over the offseason, Jeff Petry graded out as one of the most offensively impactful defensemen in the league for several seasons. It was expected that Petry would need time to adjust to the Penguins’ system — he admitted as much earlier this season — but the Penguins haven’t quite seen that high-end offensive impact he’s displayed before. It does seem to be coming around, though, as he’s been hanging onto pucks to gain the offensive zone with more regularity and even getting crafty to make plays once he’s in the zone. "Confidence goes a long way," Petry told me this week. "When I am skating, that’s when I’m at my best and then everything kind of goes from there. Having the ability to hang onto pucks, I think, comes with that confidence." -- Danny Shirey at PPG Paints Arena
11. Now past the quarter mark of the season, Petry told me he’s increasingly able to fall back on the Penguins’ system instead of having to think too much out there, and he’s aiming to find a groove here now that he’s much more familiar with the plan of attack. Sergei Gonchar didn’t exactly kill it right out of the gates with the Penguins, did he? Petry’s performance in the absence of Kris Letang has at least put the option on the table for the Penguins to slightly reduce Letang’s workload whenever he returns to the lineup. In the four games Letang has recently missed, Petry is averaging just under 26 minutes of ice-time per game. -- Shirey
12. Bryan Rust struggled immensely over a recent stretch in which he posted just two points over 14 games. At times, there were some puck-management issues in his game and he seemed to be lacking that tenacity that’s made him so effective, but toward the end of that stretch, his game really started to turn a corner. The goals still weren’t showing up, but the rate at which he was shooting and generating expected goals remained among the best marks on the team. His production drought finally came to a screeching halt with two goals and four assists over the last two games. "I think the last four, five games of that slump, I was doing a lot of really good things, creating a lot of chances, playing in the offensive zone, getting my game on the right track," Rust told me. "It was kind of just a matter of time until things started to go in my direction, so hopefully they continue that. Just got to keep trying to play that way and build up what I’m doing." -- Shirey
13. When Kasperi Kapanen handed the postgame MVP helmet to Rust after the win over St. Louis this week, he called Rust his "countryman" and called him by the Finnish name "Jari." I asked both of them what the deal was with that. Kapanen said, "There's no Finns here anymore, so I need a buddy and he's my countryman." Rust said that the two have had an inside joke for awhile now that Rust is Finnish, despite Rust having zero Finnish heritage in his background. I asked Rust if he's at least learned any Finnish words over the year and he said that he has, but nothing he can repeat for print. -- Taylor Haase in Cranberry, Pa.
14. Casey DeSmith let Teddy Blueger design one of his goalie masks last year. Both his main mask and his Winter Classic mask this year he did all on his own with his painter. His Winter Classic mask came in this week and includes Former Penguins players Jim Rutherford and Bryan Hextall on one side, and Roberto Clemente on the other. The teddy bear character Ted from the 2012 Seth MacFarlane movie is on the back in a tribute to the host city, Boston. -- Haase
15. A cap-related note that may become relevant at some point this year, given the Penguins' lack of cap space: An emergency exemption recall happens when a team has no cap space, plays a game short a player, then can make a recall the following game of a player that doesn't count toward the cap. In recent years, due to COVID, the NHL modified the rules to make it so if a team was short a goaltender they wouldn't have to play a game short first. That's how the Penguins got Louis Domingue up near the end of the regular season despite not having the cap space for him. That goaltender modification to the rule isn't in effect anymore this season. If for whatever reason the Penguins were short a goaltender and had no cap space, they'd have to play a game with emergency backup goaltender Mike Chiasson as backup first before being able to recall Dustin Tokarski for free. -- Haase
16. Given the shallowness of the Penguins' prospect pool, it'd really help if they could hit on some of these AHL-contracted players in the system. One who might be worth keeping an eye on is 22-year-old forward Sam Houde, who is in his second pro season after being signed out of the QMJHL's Chicoutimi Saguenéens two summers ago. Houde spent most of last season in Wheeling, recording 43 points (13 goals, 30 assists) in 31 games. He's made the full-time jump to the AHL this season and has been the third-line left wing as of late, though he has spent some time as the second-line center. He has two goals and two assists in 16 games. Coach J.D. Forrest told me that he thinks Houde has "taken another step" in his game this season: "We like the element of speed he brings and his skill. ... He's a little braver, he'll mix it up. He's not averse to getting into the dirty areas." -- Haase
STEELERS
17. Pat Freiermuth is one of the few players on the roster whose only two years in the NFL have come under Matt Canada’s tenure as offensive coordinator. He’s played through the version of the offense catered to Ben Roethlisberger, and now in the midst of the transition to Kenny Pickett.
As I continue to get a more accurate reading of the pulse in the locker room regarding the players' trust in Canada, Freiermuth was a prime target for me to ask straight up how much this group trusts Canada as the offensive coordinator. "We’re very confident," Freiermuth told me. "He does a great job hearing the players out in doing what we want to do, what he wants to do, and kind of finding that middle ground. I think he’s a good offensive coordinator." -- Chris Halicke on the South Side
18. The idea that Canada runs the offense as some sort of dictator is quickly dissipating. In his weekly meeting with the media, Pickett gave a ringing endorsement of the give and take with Canada. Some might think Pickett said that because he and Canada go back to the rookie's days in high school. But, my one-on-one conversation with Freiermuth gave more background on the collaboration between the offensive coaching staff and the players, and how it's evolved over the course of the season.
"The more and more we get comfortable with each other and the more and more we make plays, the coaching staff is there to listen," Freiermuth told me. "I think there’s always been open dialogue. Obviously, without the proven ability to make plays, it was kind of harder to vouch for saying things like, ‘This is what I see.’ But, the more plays are being made and the more successful we are as an offense, the more they’re an open book. If you have the film to back up what you see, they’re going to take it into consideration. But, it’s very much an open conversation. That’s the game of football." -- Halicke
19. Mike Tomlin doesn't often go into the locker room after practice. Before this week, we may have seen him three or four times all season. But, this week he's been in the locker room after both practices on Wednesday and Thursday. And both times, he's done a slow walk around passed each locker, sometimes giving words of encouragement or other times just joking and laughing with a group of players. Either way, it's clear he is making sure his players are staying locked as the team heads down a vital stretch of games. After all, this group has playoffs on their mind, regardless of the circumstances. -- Halicke
20. As I wrote in a previous Friday Insider, team photographers print their photos in the hallway between the main lobby and the locker room, and the photos are changed out every week. Turns out the players get to keep all printed pictures they're in. The one that caught my eye this week was Connor Heyward's touchdown catch, and Connor is the one who told me about how they get to keep those pictures. While it goes without saying, that's definitely his favorite thus far. -- Halicke
21. With Michigan and Ohio State both in the College Football Playoff, I tried to get a jump on any potential second bet that might be planned between Chris Wormley and Cam Heyward. After the regular season matchup between their alma maters, Heyward lost the last bet and had to wear Wormely's Michigan hoodie for his media availability last week. In case both schools prevail in their first games, they are preparing for a possible rematch in the National Championship. "We’ll figure something out," Wormley told me. "I know Michigan will win, but they’ve both gotta get there first." -- Halicke
