ALTOONA, Pa. -- We've gone over this for years ... and years ... and have always come back to the same conclusion: Sean Clifford is an average college quarterback -- no more, no less.
The eye test has told us that much week in and week out. But sports are all about the numbers these days -- the metrics and comparisons and charting every little thing.
James Franklin says that all the time -- that Penn State keeps track of everything -- and so, if he's going to use numbers to make decisions, then the rest of us need to use numbers to help draw our own conclusions.
The most important number for Penn State this season is 10-2. That's the record, it's really good, and Clifford was a big part of it as he put together a season with some big plays and good game management.
He deserves credit, without question, for helping lead the Nittany Lions.
Still, it leads us to ponder this question for the senior quarterback: Did Sean Clifford improve this season?
Let's check the numbers.
I've tracked his NCAA rankings each year during his career, because for me, these numbers offer a very good comparison between Clifford and other QBs around the nation.
For my personal criteria, generally speaking, a guy in the top 20 or so constitutes a really good quarterback, somebody in the 40-60 range is average, and anybody after, say, 70 is below average.
I realize this is a lot of numbers. But please take a minute or two and really digest these before you keep reading. Because honestly, these numbers tell a better story about Clifford than anything I can really explain about them.
Man, when you look at the totality there -- a whole bunch of rankings in the 40s, 50s and 60s this season -- it has to solidify the notion that, as mentioned above, Clifford is merely an average college quarterback.
I'd like to ask Penn State fans, then, to consider this whopper of a question: Just how successful could this program be if it actually had a really good quarterback?
You know, somebody in the top 10 or 15 of these numbers? Like Ohio State and Alabama typically have at QB.
Look, I'm not here to pile on Clifford. Honestly, I'm really not.
This is a "just the facts, ma'am" kind of thing. You see the numbers, I see the numbers, and the numbers are what they are. There's simply no getting around them.
Yes, to answer the question I posed above, Clifford did improve in several categories this season. His passing efficiency improved, along with points, TD passes and completion percentage. He has always been best in these rankings when it comes to TD passes, and he had his career-high national ranking this year.
At the same time, he's square in the average range in several categories, and close to below average in others. Now, the good news about him being so low in passing yards per game and total offense is that Penn State does have a good running game, and so Clifford doesn't have to do it all.
But when you need him to do more, that's the concern. It's always been the concern.
Yes, the Lions are 10-2. But think about how close they were to being 11-1 and probably in the College Football Playoff. They led Ohio State, 21-16, with 9 minutes to go, but Clifford turned the ball over four times in that game (3 INTs, one fumble). After the Buckeyes had taken a 23-21 lead, the Lions got the ball and needed to make something happen, yet Clifford fumbled right away.
Clifford's QBR in that game was 56.5.
C.J. Stroud's was 94.6 for Ohio State.
Stroud will be in New York as a Heisman finalist. And the Buckeyes are in the playoff, yet again.
As I have stated repeatedly, there is just NO WAY Ohio State would have stuck with Clifford as its starting QB for four years. Expectations there are far greater than a guy who ranks in the 40s and 50 in national stats. And even though Clifford has all kinds of career records at Penn State because he was a four-year starter, it's more important that he went 0-4 against the Buckeyes.
We'll see if highly touted phenom Drew Allar does better. Or any other future Penn State quarterbacks.
The bottom line is, for the things Clifford does well -- leadership, poise, intelligence on the field -- the drawback with him has always been statistical. We can talk about how he doesn't pass the eye test a lot of times, and the numbers above make that painfully clear.
Of all those numbers, the one that jumps out the most to me is passing yards per completion. Clifford ranks 58th in the country. That is really telling and really pretty poor for an offense that likes to take shots down the field. Clifford ranked 18th in the nation in that category in 2019, the 11-2 Cotton Bowl year, but has been way down the past three years.
The Lions need a quarterback who can hit home runs on deep balls, not overshoot guys all the time. Clifford has been the latter for most of his career, and there's no question it has limited the offense.
Clifford has one game left, and we'll address down the road if winning the Rose Bowl can rewrite his legacy and the way fans feel about his career.
But statistically speaking, Clifford is who we thought he was. His NCAA rankings tell you a lot of what you need to know about his level of play as a college quarterback.
