I can 100% understand why Phil Jurkovec would be an attractive commodity to Pitt fans.
But, I also don't see the logistics of that fantasy playing out in the way that many others might.
The Pittsburgh native and Pine-Richland graduate is looking for a new home, after entering the transfer portal on Friday as a graduate student.
Jurkovec spent the last three seasons as the starting quarterback at Boston College, passing for 5,183 yards with a 35:17 touchdown-to-interception ratio on a 59% completion rate. He played in 24 games, but only played in eight this season after sustaining knee and rib injuries. He has not played since Oct. 29.
Per a report by ESPN's Pete Thamel, Jurkovec "is looking for an opportunity to play, develop and lead a program, according to sources. He's hoping that a strong season could help his prospects for the 2024 NFL draft, and he realizes that both he and his new program would mutually benefit from him having a strong season."
Jurkovec is expected to be healed up by the time spring football rolls around, which brings an intriguing dynamic for his case as a transfer.
But, the million-dollar question is, if Jurkovec wants to develop as a quarterback and improve his stock for a potential run at the 2024 NFL Draft, is Pitt going to be the answer?
Remember, the transfer portal is a transactional process. The fit has to be there for both sides. The correct system has to be in place. The personnel has to be able to complement the incoming player, regardless of position.
I understand the obvious reunion with offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr. is a catch to this situation. Jurkovec transferred to Boston College prior to the 2020 season, and Cignetti was his offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach before joining Pitt's staff in the same role for the 2022 season. The marriage would be a rekindling, and one would think the transition could be a seamless one.
I'm not sure how good of an idea that is, even in theory.
When Kedon Slovis arrived to Pitt via the portal, many thought he would be able to pick up what Kenny Pickett put down in his final season -- maybe not exactly at Pickett's level, but akin to it. Cignetti had a track record of working with Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning and Sam Bradford in the NFL, and this season with Slovis was supposed to be a continuation of what was already built in from the record-setting 2021 season.
It obviously has not worked out that way, at least yet. Pitt not only underwent a massive change of the offensive system under Cignetti, it turned itself into a different brand of Pitt football from the Pickett era. That brand in 2022 was a run-first scheme with Israel Abanikanda -- who could bolt for the NFL, should he choose -- and having a passing attack to only complement it.
With that in mind, I'll ask again: If Jurkovec really wants to develop and become a prospect for the 2024 NFL Draft, is Pitt really the place for it?
I can already feel the rebuttal boiling over: Jurkovec is a better quarterback than Slovis, some would say.
Statistically speaking, though, it is a marginal difference between the two.
In his lone season playing for Cignetti, Slovis has completed 58.4% of his passes for 217.9 yards per game with 10 touchdowns, nine interceptions, and a 127.1 rating in 11 games.
In 16 games under Cignetti, Jurkovec has completed 59.5% of his passes for 217.0 yards per game, with 24 touchdowns, nine interceptions and a 141.2 rating.
(For fun, I calculated Jurkovec's same passing stats, but with Slovis' TD-to-INT ratio. His passer rating would have been 130.5.)
The inflated TD-to-INT ratio statistically tips the scale to Jurkovec, but he also never had the support from a running game like Slovis did this season with Abanikanda winning an ACC rushing title and leading the nation in rushing touchdowns. Boston College's leading rusher in 2020, David Bailey, tallied 503 yards in 10 games. In 2021, Pat Garwo III rushed for 1,045 yards in 12 games for the Eagles, but Jurkovec missed half of the season with a hand injury.
I'm not saying that Cignetti wouldn't re-configure the offense to fit Jurkovec, but it is also currently not a guarantee that Slovis is staying or leaving this offseason. If Slovis stays, does Cignetti really want to do the song-and-dance of an "open" quarterback competition again? That would be between Jurkovec, Slovis, and Nate Yarnell, with Nick Patti still waiting in the wings for his shot, assuming none of the current Pitt QBs transfer.
Adding Jurkovec -- based on what we know right now -- would only complicate things, and for an offense which could potentially lose its best player this offseason, I'm not sure Pitt needs another offseason of quarterback questions.
I have a sense that tells me Slovis is going to play at Pitt next season. The main reasons for that are, one, the potential of building off his 4-0 November in which he played well enough, and because of the idea of developing for one more season under a proven former NFL coach.
There are al$o a couple of more rea$on$.
Slovis has a massive NIL deal with Upper Deck for his autograph rights, and he is set to profit from Pitt merchandise sold by the site. There is also the community outreach he has been building as of late, including with a visit to UPMC Children's Hospital on Giving Tuesday this week to thank nurses for their service. He has utilized his other NIL initiative with Gussy's Bagels to help provide funds for the UMPC Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh Foundation. He has his own bagel sandwich named after him at Gussy's -- "The Big Kedon" -- and partial sales from that sandwich go to the UPMC Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh Foundation.
Jacob Carlson/Klutch Sports Group
Kedon Slovis poses with nurses at the UPMC Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh on Tuesday.
He is clearly intent on rooting himself within the community and within the Pitt fan base with these recent deals -- the Gussy's deal kicked in in September. Why sign two NIL deals in three months, including one with a hyper-intensive local focus, only to bolt a couple of months later?
There is also this obvious concept: Short of Slovis wanting to improve his draft stock, which unquestionably plummeted in 2022, what other reason does he have to bolt from Pitt?
It is not like the transfer portal is not already loaded with quarterbacks who also have Power Five potential.
Quarterbacks currently in the portal, per Rivals, as of Friday: Virginia's Brennan Armstrong, Boise State's Hank Bachmeier, Oregon State's Chance Nolan, Colorado's Brendon Lewis, Wisconsin's Deacon Hill, Indiana's Jack Tuttle, Cincinnati's Luther Richesson, and Arizona State's Paul Tyson.
Quarterbacks who intend to enter the portal: Texas' Hudson Card, Oregon's Jay Butterfield, Arkansas' Malik Hornsby, Penn State's Christian Veilleux, Baylor's Kyron Drones, Georgia Tech's Jeff Sims, Tulsa's Braylon Braxton, and Colorado's Owen McCown.
Add it up, and that is 16 quarterbacks on the current transfer market (read: free agent market). that is only going to increase as we inch toward bowl season. If we're using Rivals' prospect rankings, Slovis was a three-star player, right on par with Jurkovec. Armstrong, Card, Butterfield, and Bachmeier are all four-stars per their rankings.
Does Slovis want to test the portal again, given the competition in the portal amid his down season?
I'll say this as my one-sentence take on the potential of Slovis leaving: I'll believe it when I see it.
Now, this entire conversation around Jurkovec obviously changes if Slovis transfers, or he announces publicly that he intends on transferring. That would leave Pitt with Patti, Yarnell, Eli Kosanovich, and Jake Frantl on its roster. We can only infer from what we know, which is that Patti and Slovis were in competition over the summer (were they?), and that Yarnell turned heads from his "Beethoven" performance against Western Michigan, and that he has been praised for his efforts as a scout-team quarterback this season.
Besides, if that 2022 offseason competition between Slovis and Patti was as close as Pitt is making it out to be, who is to say that Patti would not get the same shot against Jurkovec?
If Slovis leaves, who is to say that Cignetti doesn't want Patti or Yarnell to assume the starting role in 2023? They would each enter with one year under his offense, and especially under a previously tailored one which leaned heavily on the run and likely will do so again with Rodney Hammond Jr. and C'Bo Flemister as a one-two punch, assuming Abanikanda declares for the NFL Draft.
Considering Jurkovec -- with all due respect to the player -- with Slovis a lock for 2023 would only unnecessarily complicate the position.
Considering Jurkovec with Slovis not on the roster? I still think that overcomplicates the room, even in spite of the knowledge of Kenny Minchey's recent de-commitment and subsequent commitment to Notre Dame.
As for Jurkovec, he surely will be sought after by Power Five schools and Group of Five schools alike. He had 15 total offers out of high school, including from Pitt, but also from 12 other Power Five programs: Alabama, Clemson, Michigan State, Mississippi State, North Carolina, Ohio State, Penn State, Tennessee, UCLA, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. He chose Notre Dame among all of these.
(Ironically, Temple, which Pickett flipped to Pitt from, was the Group of Five offer to Jurkovec.)
Recruiting is cyclical. When Jurkovec graduated high school in 2018, Cignetti was chopping it up with Rodgers in the NFL. Pitt's offensive coordinator in 2018 was Shawn Watson, who was just named the head coach at FCS program Wofford.
Now, I'm not suggesting Jurkovec goes "down" to the FCS, but maybe a Group of Five school could help serve his NFL Draft stock?
Regardless, I don't see Pitt as that program, for one reason after another. And that is not a knock on either the program or Jurkovec; it is a knock on the projected marriage of the two.
