Make that two trades for the Pirates in the opening weeks of this offseason.
After acquiring Ji-Man Choi from the Rays right before free agency opened earlier this month, the Pirates shipped Kevin Newman to the Reds Friday night for right-hander Dauri Moreta. It’s a deal that makes perfect sense on paper. There are plenty of middle infielders on the 40 man roster, so Newman was probably expendable. He had some trade value, so the Pirates picked up a project reliever in return.
Had this trade happened last year, it probably would have been a bit more exciting on the Pirates’ end. Moreta posted a 0.68 ERA over 26 ⅓ innings in Class AAA in 2021, earning himself a cup of coffee in the majors in the process. He had a chance to establish himself as a part of a rebuilding Reds bullpen this year, but instead bounced between the majors and minors. With the Reds, he had a 5.40 ERA and 5.80 FIP over 38 ⅓ innings. In 27 ⅓ Class AAA innings, he had a 5.74 FIP. Like Newman, he was right on that edge of being non-tendered.
It was a bad season, but he still showed off a couple of desirable traits, and with a few tweaks, he could prove to be a big-league arm.
It’s no secret that the Pirates are trying to get more whiffs out of their relievers next year, and Moreta is a swing-and-miss reliever. Last year, 484 pitchers across baseball threw at least 25 sliders that were swung at by a batter. Moreta’s 48.6% whiff percentage on the slider was the 26th-best in baseball. His four-seamer had a 26% whiff rate, which ranked 137th of 565 pitchers using the same sample size.
There is probably some small sample size in play here since Moreta bounced between the majors and minors. It's a fair point, but the fastball really moves at least. Last year, Moreta averaged two more inches of vertical movement than the average four-seamer, ranking 35th of 409 qualified pitchers, according to Baseball Savant. Mix in its 96 mph average velocity and he has a weapon on his hands.
The trade off is the slider averaged -9.3 inches less horizontal movement than average, 363rd of 365 qualified pitchers. It’s not a sweeper and it doesn’t spin (1,996 RPM), but it drops, which plays off a fastball which has the illusion of rise. It’s not the best analytical pitch, but it’s worked in practice in his major-league career.
So if he has two pitches that could potentially play at the major-league level, why is he coming off a rotten year? Well, let’s take a look at his results based on pitch:
FF: 30.3 % Pitch % .190 BA, .333 SLG, .280 wOBA, .288 xwOBA
SL: 24% Pitch %,.103 BA, .207 SLG, .201 wOBA, .191 xwOBA
CH: 20.6 Pitch %, .212 BA, .545 SLG, .317 wOBA, .281 xwOBA
SI: 25.1 Pitch %, .378 BA, .865 SLG, .545 wOBA, .460 xwOBA
One of these pitches is not like the other.
For someone who is reliant on missing bats, Moreta’s contact pitch was downright terrible last year. He allowed 16 extra-base hits last year, and 10 of them came against the sinker (six doubles, four homers).
Last year, pitchers across threw a combined 1,783 individual pitches that ended at least 25 plate appearances. Moreta’s .865 slugging percentage was the 10th-highest in all of baseball.
Looking at where those sinkers were going, it’s easy to see why they were getting hit hard.
A sinker’s hot spots shouldn’t be at the top of the strike zone. It’s one thing to occasionally move that pitch around the quadrant to give hitters a different look. It’s another to either consistently fail to execute the pitch or have an attack plan that is so flawed.
What’s interesting is his sinker actually doesn’t get that much more vertical movement than his four-seamer. The difference is the horizontal movement. There’s more cut on the sinker, which isn’t exactly useful. If it’s going to move, it should drop.
Now pitch tracking isn’t exactly perfect, and it’s not that uncommon for a pitcher’s fastballs to be misclassified. Zooming in on his the grip he had for a pitch classified as a sinker, it does look like his fingers are between the laces:
I have a hard time believing the Pirates brought Moreta in for his sinker when they’ve made it so clear they need more whiffs. Ditching this pitch could help him out.
Of course, a change in pitch mix doesn’t guarantee success. Perhaps the issue is that he doesn’t get whiffs in the upper-third of the zone. If that’s the case, the slider loses a lot of its deception and things quickly snowball into another 5+ ERA season.
Moreta’s fastball is going to make or break him in the majors. It can be a plus offering or one of the worst pitches in the game. A real Jekyll and Hyde offering. We saw him have both in his time in the majors last year. Losing the sinker and going all-in on trying to get whiffs is probably his best chance of clicking at this level.
