Penn State looked fantastic in the first half Thursday afternoon, then nearly blew it in the second half against a Furman team that's better than most people realize.
But here's the thing: The Nittany Lions (4-0) didn't blow it. They found a way. And they made big shots.
That last part is the key for this team. This group of Lions already has proven this season that it can make a bunch of shots, particularly from 3, and if that continues, then Penn State will make the NCAA Tournament this season.
Whew. That's ... saying something. So, I'm sitting here predicting already after just four games that Penn State, which has only made five NCAA Tournaments since 1965 (would have been six if not for COVID canceling tourney in 2020), will be able to pull off that rare feat?
Yep. As long as the Lions can make shots.
This isn't rocket science, folks. Teams that make jumpers win games nowadays. Teams that shoot and make a lot of 3s win games. Penn State will still have trouble against some teams in the Big Ten because it doesn't have a lot of size, but while that's always been a big factor in the past, it's simply not as big of a factor any longer with more teams relying on jumpers and defense.
There are enough shooters on this Lions team to believe they can win at least nine games in the Big Ten, which is breaking even. And a 9-9 record should be enough to get to the tournament, especially if Penn State can do what it needs to do in the non-conference to pull out some quality wins.
Thursday's 73-68 victory over Furman in the first round of the Charleston Classic certainly should qualify as such. The Paladins were picked to win the Southern Conference and entered play at No. 63 in the KenPom rankings. Penn State is No. 35. The better Furman does, obviously, the more beneficial that win will become later on.
Penn State will face Virginia Tech in the second round of the tournament on Friday at noon. That game provides an outstanding opportunity for a big non-con win, as the Hokies are No. 20 in the KenPom rankings. If the Lions can get that game, it would be huge for their resume.
Penn State whalloped Furman in the first half Thursday, building a 46-29 lead by shooting 17 of 31 (55 percent) overall and hitting 6 of 13 3-pointers (46 percent). Again, this is a solid Furman team, so the Paladins weren't going to go down without a fight.
They put up a huge fight down the stretch, while Penn State struggled and seemingly was just trying to get the game over with as soon as possible.
Furman pulled within 63-59, then Andrew Funk hit a big 3-pointer for some cushion with 4:24 remaining. Funk made another big 3 for a 69-63 edge with 2:26 left.
Furman kept charging, though, and closed to 69-68 with 1:48 to go.
We've all seen this movie with Penn State, right? Like, 200 times?
The Lions have just found ways over the years to blow games that it appeared they would win, collapsing down the stretch and giving the opponent every chance to steal the win.
It looked like that might happen again Thursday, but this time Penn State had an answer.
Seth Lundy hit a jumper to make it 71-68 with 1:22 left. The Lions' defense then held on as Furman missed three 3-pointers down the stretch that would have tied it. The Paladins fouled Lundy with 6 seconds to go, and he made two free throws to seal it.
Lundy and Jalen Pickett scored 20 points apiece to lead Penn State. Myles Dread hit three 3-pointers off the bench for his nine points, and while Funk had only six points on 2 of 10 shooting, he did make the two big 3s late to keep Furman from catching up.
Micah Shrewsberry still has a lot of work to do with this team, and by no means are the Lions just going to stockpile a bunch of easy wins, no matter how well they shoot it during stretches. Not having a strong big man will lead to some losses, and some nights the shots just won't fall against quality Big Ten competition.
But Shrewsberry stresses defense, and there will be some margin for error because of that even when the Lions aren't making a bunch of shots.
The big thing for this Penn State team -- and this is true throughout college basketball in this era of parity -- is to be able to find a way to win close games at the end. The Lions have had major issues with that seemingly forever, but winning close like they did against Furman can only help.
The Big Ten is a little down this year, but even saying that, Penn State is still only the eighth-highest ranked team in KenPom at No, 35. But hey, as we've said for a long time, finishing eighth in the Big Ten should be enough to get into the NCAA Tournament most years, and that should be the case again this season.
THE ESSENTIALS
