North Shore Tavern Mound Visit: Who will Pirates protect in Rule 5?

For a couple years, the Rule 5 was more an opportunity for the Pirates to add more players to the roster. Now, it's more of a threat of losing some of the depth they've acquired.

On Tuesday, teams will have to select the contract of Rule 5 eligible players or leave them exposed to the draft. Not everyone is Rule 5 eligible. The general rule of thumb is players who were drafted out of college need to be added within four years, and players drafted out of high school or signed as international free agents need to be added within five years. So Quinn Priester won't have his contract selected, but that's because he isn't eligible yet.

Who is eligible and who will the Pirates protect? This year, I'm predicting it will be four players.

NO QUESTIONS ASKED

C/UTL Endy Rodriguez, RHP Mike Burrows

Of course the top-100 prospects are going to be added.

I don't know how much needs to be said that hasn't already been said. Rodriguez is defensively versatile (he can play catcher, first, second and corner outfield), is a switch hitter with a pure swing from each side of the plate and has done nothing but hit since joining the Pirates in 2021, being named the organization's Honus Wagner Player of the Year this season.

Burrows is a spin rate monster on his fastball and curve but is able to kill that spin on a vastly improved changeup, giving him three good pitches at his disposal. Had it not been for a nagging shoulder issue at the end of the season, there's a chance he could have already made his major-league debut.

If you want to read more about these two, I wrote articles proper on them here or here. They'll have their contracts selected. Everyone else has at least some ambiguity.

SAFE BET

1B Malcom Nunez

Cherington hasn't shied away from acquiring players who are about to be Rule 5 eligible in trades, and if there has been any chance of them being selected by another club, they've been added (Liover Peguero, Jack Suwinski and Canaan Smith-Njigba). I'd be very surprised if Nunez is the one to buck the trend, especially since the Pirates don't have any first base depth behind the recently acquired Ji-Man Choi.

Nunez always had good exit velocity, but finally translated that into extra-base power this year after focusing all winter to get the ball in the air. He's most likely just a first baseman and DH, but the team needs some right-handed pop, and he homered 23 times this year.

"I'm maintaining the ball up, keeping the ball up," Nunez told me at the end of the Curve's season. "Last year, I would hit a lot of ground balls, and that was my problem. This year, I focused on keeping the ball up."

Nunez was one of the main players the Pirates got back for José Quintana. That wasn't exactly a popular trade, and it would look worse if they lost the hitter they got in return. He'll be added to the roster and make his debut in 2023.

LESS SAFE BET

C/OF Blake Sabol

Now things start getting trickier.

Sabol was originally drafted as an outfielder, but before last season asked director of coaching and player development John Baker if he could catch again like he did in college. It generated some interest around him, and in his age 24 season, he posted above average results in Altoona, slashing .281/.347/.486. 

I haven't heard great things about his outfield defense, which might be what determines if he gets his contract selected. After all, the Pirates have a couple other really good catching prospects in Rodriguez and Henry Davis. There is some potential with the bat, and I've heard buzz that if he's not protected, he's going to be selected. The question the Pirates will face is if it's worth carrying another catcher.

MAYBE, DEPENDING ON HOW YOUNG THIS ROSTER GETS

3B/UTL Jared Triolo, INF Dariel Lopez, OF/1B Matt Gorski

This is an interesting trio of players because they each have some clear upside, as well as some red-ish flags.

Triolo is an elite defender... at the one position where the Pirates already have an elite defender at the major-league level. He's moved around the diamond and gnoe to premium positions like shortstop and center field, but that isn't always an easy transition. An elite defender at one position doesn't always mean they'll be good at another. He's also consistently outperformed his batted ball peripherals.

Lopez is a 20-year-old project. Raw tools wise, he could be a plus hitter, both in terms of average and power. He's also a free swinger and struck out in one-quarter of his plate appearances while also making 25 errors around the diamond in 98 games. That's hardly a deal-breaker, and in most cases, he would advance to Altoona next year without any issue. He''s still early in his development cycle and there's still some growth to be had. Is that enough of a deterrent to keep other teams from picking him? 

Gorski was left behind in Class High-A Greensboro to start the year while most of his teammates went to Altoona. He rose to that challenge and tore up A-ball pitching, and continued to swing a hot bat in Altoona. An outfielder by trade, he also has some first base experience and could be an option there.

"I feel super comfortable over there," Gorski said recently. "I’m sure I’ll get a lot more reps at spring training this year."

But Gorski's swing is a little messy, especially with his feet. He worked to simplify things this year, but I had a scout tell me there's still work to be done. There are also questions of if he can stay healthy and how much of his success this year was because he was a 24 and in A-ball. He was named the organization's Willie Stargell slugger of the year, but is that enough for him to make the leap?

UPPER-LEVEL RELIEVERS

RHP Cody Bolton, RHP Tahnaj Thomas, RHP Colin Selby, RHP J.C. Flowers

Relievers are always tricky. The Pirates could certainly use a bullpen boost, and a AA or AAA reliever is one of the few positions where you can project a minor-leaguer into the majors. With that said, is it the best allocation of a roster spot?

Bolton was a rising star in the system before being sidelined all of 2021. After not pitching in a competitive game in two years, Bolton posted a solid 3.09 ERA over 75 2/3 innings for Indianapolis. When fully healthy, he could be a starter candidate, which would seemingly make him the best option here. But there's one hold up: He's a sinkerballer, and the Pirates are looking for swing and miss. And if the Pirates wanted him in the majors, wouldn't it make sense that he would have already been promoted?

Thomas is an analytical darling with his spin rates and a knack for missing bats, especially after reworking his mechanics to move towards the plate. Flowers has one of the best sliders in the system, and Selby has two breaking pitches that spin and an upper-90s fastball. Any of the three would seem like good candidates to reach the majors next year. Is it worth spending a roster spot on them too, especially since there's virtually no chance the Pirates lose all of them.

OTHERS OF NOTE

OF Matt Fraizer, UTL Andres Alvarez, LHP Omar Cruz, C Abrahan Gutierrez, OF Connor Scott, OF Rodolfo Nolasco, 1B Mason Martin, RHP Rick DeVito

I'll preface this by saying this isn't a complete list of Rule 5 eligible players, and that I don't expect anyone here to be added or at risk of being selected by another club. This is just to keep tabs on players who came over in trades but have been middling thus far (Cruz, Scott, DeVito), players who are just too young or at too low a level to be seriously considered (Nolasco, Gutierrez), struggled this past year (Fraizer, Martin) or had a good year but aren't just that highly graded of a prospect (Alvarez). Never say never, but not this offseason for them.

FINAL PREDICTION

I feel like I lean towards protecting too many players when I make these projections every year, so I'm going to try to shoot a little low here: Rodriguez, Burrows, Nunez and Sabol are the four who are protected. Everyone else is left exposed.

If I was going to add a fifth player (and I'm purposefully trying not to add five because I'd rather undershoot than overshoot my prediction), it would be Lopez because I see him being in a similar situation as Rodolfo Castro was back in 2020. The Pirates aren't afraid to add someone to the 40 man knowing they will need at least another year or two in the minors, and I see him having the most upside out of everyone besides the four I protected.

I wouldn't be shocked if a reliever is added (to pick a name out of a hat, I'll say Thomas because he gets a good amount of swing-and-miss, which the Pirates are looking for this winter), but I also wouldn't be shocked if they took a reliever in the Rule 5 draft. Gorski and Triolo are victims of circumstance, as they are good enough to have their contracts selected by some other teams, but the Pirates already have players who can do what they do on the roster. As for everyone else, 2023 is going to be a make-or-break year for so many prospects.