Bryan Reynolds took a bit of a step back at the plate in 2022 after a torrid 2021 campaign.There were a couple factors that went into it, including an oblique injury, an unknown contract going into the year, a COVID-19 scare and an early season slump, but the final results were still quite good. It's why he was, for the second year in a row, named a finalist for a Silver Slugger.
He took a bigger step back in the field, which is why he isn't a finalist for a Gold Glove in center this year. In fact, he struggled in the field, being worth -14 defensive runs saved (DRS) and -7 Outs Above Average (OAA), both last among qualified center fielders. He didn't grade particularly well in DRS in 2021 (-5), but he was +10 in OAA. It was a significant drop that cost his pitchers runs and, by extension, his team games.
That's what makes the final series of the season so intriguing. In one of the final games of the year, Reyonlds slid over to left, the position he primarily played his first two years in the majors, so Ji Hwan Bae can get another start in center.
Derek Shelton said that day the move was for evaluation purposes for Bae and that the club still views Reynolds as a center fielder. Still, the genie is out of the bottle. There's precedent that Reynolds could move back to left at some point next year.
At first glance, it would seem to be a logical move. PNC Park is big enough in left field that you basically need two center fielders anyway. He's always graded out well defensively there and could be a potential Gold Glover in left. Taking a player who had one of the worst defensive seasons at a position and moving him somewhere where he could be elite seems like a win-win for both the player and the team.
The answer is not that simple though, and there's a legitimate case to keep Reynolds in center. There are some areas where he could rebound next year, and if he doesn't moving to left field might not solve them.
To better understand why Reynolds struggled in the field this year, we have to go back to 2021 when he excelled. He was worth 10 OAA, but almost all of that value came from plays that he came in on. Here is what his OAA was last year based on direction:
It's fairly common that a player does better coming in on the ball than having to backtrack, but Reynolds was one of the best in the game on those shallow fly balls and liners. His 8 OAA coming in were the fourth most among qualified outfielders and tops in the National League. It's a big reason why he was nominated for that Gold Glove.
Baseball Savant produces charts that track the fly balls each outfielder has a chance to make and scales it by the amount of ground they cover and how much hang time the ball had. The difficult plays are put on a scale of one to five stars (a one star play has a 91-95% chance of success, two star has 76-90%, three stars has 51-75%, four stars has 26-50% and five stars is 25% or less).
Looking at Reynolds' catch chart from 2021, most of the catches he made that qualified as a star-worthy play had short hangtimes, meaning it was usually a sinking liner:
Plays in a red or green circle are balls he went back on, and while he made a couple of those plays, he was at his best when the play was in front of him.
This year, Reynolds did not nearly pick up as many OAA on plays in, but checking the chart, he also didn't have as many opportunities to make those plays. Some of this is coincidental, but if he excels at making a certain type of catch and he doesn't get a lot of opportunities to make those catches, of course his defensive value would go down.
That directional chart has one clear weakness: Plays to his back left. If this really is a problem for him moving forward, moving to left field might not help him at PNC Park because of the notch. That's the area where a left fielder can really make an impact defensively in this ball park, and if moving that direction a weakness for an outfielder, it could become that much larger of a problem.
With that said, I'm convinced Reynolds can improve going to his back left and that part of that struggle was because of who he had flanking him. Going by innings played, the Pirates' most used outfielders in right last season were Cal Mitchell, Jack Suwinski, Ben Gamel, Bligh Madris, Diego Castillo and Cole Tucker. Suwinski graded out fine defensively, but the other five combined for -18 DRS and -9 OAA. If an infielder was needed to play the outfield, they usually went to right.
As a result, we got plays like this one against the Yankees:
Yeah, that error goes on Reynolds' ledger, but Castillo deserves some blame there. That's either his ball or he should have peeled off to back him up once he heard Reynolds call for it. A revolving door in right could not have helped Reynolds this year.
The Pirates have a couple players who could play center, including Suwinski, Bae and Travis Swaggerty, and if Reynolds doesn't improve his metrics, it might be worth going to them and sliding him to left. I wouldn't rush to that outcome yet though. Reynolds has a proven track record and there are plenty of corner outfield options on the roster.
Some of his drop off this year looks circumstantial and a bounce back could be in the cards in 2023. He's earned another look at his preferred position.
