The NFL trade deadline is next Tuesday.
Should the Steelers trade Chase Claypool? Maybe.
After losing in Miami, they're now 2-5. At best, they're the third-best team in the AFC North. After their upcoming trip to Philadelphia, they're very likely to be 2-6 as they head into their bye week, a good time to make a few changes (like the offensive play-caller).
Would that be a good time to move Claypool?
Sure, the timing works out very well for the Steelers as they can have extra time to prepare and practice for life without Claypool.
Claypool turned 24 years old in July, and Sunday will be his 39th career NFL game, having missed just one contest over his first 2 1/2 seasons. His numbers overall are fine, catching 149 passes for 1,999 yards (it looks like some milestones are coming in Philadelphia) with 14 total touchdowns.
This young man still has the remainder of this season as well as the 2023 season left on his rookie contract. He is just a $2.1 million cap hit next year. For what he brings to the table, Claypool is extremely affordable during that time. That really adds to his value.
Claypool has rare size for the wide receiver position, so much so that many projected him to move to a tight end role when coming out of Notre Dame. That projection was easier considering how good of a blocker Claypool was for a wide out, as well as the toughness and competitiveness he showed early in his college career as a special teams ace.
While his blocking this year has picked up dramatically from the slot, throughout his NFL career, that area of his game has been lackluster.
What also erased the talk of Claypool playing any tight end was his 4.42/40-yard dash, 40.5” vertical jump, and 10-foot, 6-inch broad jump numbers at the Combine at 6-foot-4 and 238 pounds. While he doesn’t play quite that fast and explosive now, those are still rare traits.
Before this season, Claypool did much of his work as a downfield, outside-the-numbers receiver, but the Steelers wisely moved him inside to be a power slot, which in reality isn’t all that much different than what is asked of many receiving-first tight ends such as Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews.
He brings much more as a blocker than a traditional small, shifty slot receiver, which is very important to any running game. And much more so than Ray Ray McCloud, who spent far too much time on the field as the Steelers' slot receiver last year.
While Claypool has great size and excellent leaping ability, his ball skills in the air are highly questionable. Contrary to popular belief, just being big and having a good vertical doesn’t mean that you can consistently out-duel NFL defensive backs in contested catch situations. There are great, smaller receivers like Steve Smith, who was amazing at this skill, but didn’t have anything close to Claypool’s dimensions:
Last year, the Steelers took way too many shots to Claypool down the right sideline -- often without very good results. It was predictable and predetermined. Still, while Claypool isn’t a fantastic go-up-and-get-it guy, and that isn’t his specialty, this does show that he is indeed capable. His size does present problems.
He is tied with Pat Freiermuth behind Diontae Johnson for the team-lead in receptions and is fourth on the team in yardage. Claypool’s 1.02 yards per route run is the lowest amongst the Steelers' top three wide receivers, and is a dismal number overall -- although some of that falls on his situation and scheme. George Pickens produces 1.35 yards per route run. Johnson comes in at 1.23. Claypool also contributes in this elementary offense as a ball carrier, but that should carry very little weight for determining his value.
Both Pickens and Johnson are aligning out wide on 90% of their snaps, and over the past four weeks, Johnson’s 141 receiving yards is well behind Pickens (283), Claypool (187), and Freiermuth (172) despite Freiermuth missing one of those games.
Claypool has also strung together his best stretch of football of late. That might help endear him to other teams, but either way, he is improving:
Here is what Claypool can do out of the slot and in the middle of the field. He has a lot of room to work on this play, but his deep speed gets his coverage player on his heels and Claypool quickly snaps off the slant route. What he does here after the catch, though, is really outstanding with his big powerful strides, balance with the ball in his hands and his tenacity for more yardage. Claypool can be quite difficult to get on the ground by smaller defensive backs.
Twenty-four of Claypool’s 44 targets have come in the past three games, as have 187 of his 266 receiving yards. Claypool has at least an 18% target share in each of those past three contests.
But other teams might covet that versatility. Which teams? Scanning the NFL’s current standings, here are the teams that might kick the tires on adding Claypool. You will notice that these are mostly contending teams, but some are also up-and-coming franchises with a young quarterback that are in need of a receiver to help develop with their signal-caller. But doesn’t that apply to Kenny Pickett as well?
Here is a quick list of possible suitors: Patriots, Titans, Jaguars, Chargers, Giants, Vikings, Packers, Bears and Seahawks. Let’s say that even one-third of those teams have some interest. That at least gets some sort of bidding war going to attain Claypool, which of course is ideal for where the Steelers sit.
What would the Steelers look like without Claypool? Well, here is betting that many of you are jumping out of your chair screaming the name Calvin Austin III.
Austin is very exciting, and we might see him soon either way. But in reality, he is nothing like Claypool, and please don’t forget that the rookie hasn’t practiced in a very long time. He is still a great unknown to the Steelers' coaching staff.
Also, size-wise, they couldn’t be any more different. And while Austin certainly could be very successful out of the slot, he was at his best as an outside guy in college. Working him in with Johnson, Pickens and Claypool would be ideal. For more information concerning Austin, check out my analysis of his game from June.
Also, Gunner Olszewski’s role would likely grow for better or worse. Expect more for worse than for better if that’s the case. Olszewski is a special-teamer and less of him on offense is best. But he could handle slot duties in a pinch, assuming he is even active on game days.
Miles Boykin has been impressive in a Steelers uniform, mostly as a special teams player. Claypool’s former teammate at Notre Dame, Boykin is basically the light beer version of Claypool. Could Boykin be helpful out of the slot? It is possible and, if Claypool were dealt, it would be worth figuring out. Boykin certainly shows the blocking and toughness required for this big slot role but isn’t as explosive or twitchy as Claypool.
Here is a fun idea, though, if Claypool were out of the mix: promote Connor Heyward.
Heyward has flashed as a move tight end/route runner. Putting him on the field with Freiermuth, two receivers and a running back might yield a high percentage of base defense with only four defensive backs on the field from the Steelers' opponents. But with Freiermuth and Heyward’s receiving skills, they could still detach from the formation and run a high percentage of their routes against linebackers. Heck, this might be something to try here and there after the bye with or without Claypool on the roster.
The rest of the season is all about finding out answers, developing young players and possibly uncovering gems. Maybe Heyward can be a consistent contributor in such a capacity. But he would not bring the vertical stretch element out of the slot that Claypool provides.
For all these reasons, by no means does Claypool “have to go." He is a fine player and cost-effective for another whole season. But everyone has a cost.
From a team like Chicago that is most likely picking near the top of the draft, a third-round pick is what it takes for a seat at the table to possibly land Claypool. For a team that should at least make the playoffs, a third and something thrown in would have to be the opening offer. A day two pick in next year’s draft must be involved. That is just what it takes to open discussions and probably shouldn’t be enough to get the deal done.
Even if Austin blows up, the Steelers likely still need to add another wide receiver this offseason. Moving Claypool creates a need on a team that already has plenty of things to address next offseason. And is it wise to eliminate someone that is targeted rather heavily by your young developing quarterback and would remain familiar and comfortable with?
But if the offer is too good to pass up, he could go. If Green Bay offers their second rounder, take it. But Claypool likely stays put.
