UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. -- As I've pointed out numerous times, this is the most interesting week of the season for Penn State. And here's the biggest reason why:
This is a must-win game for the Nittany Lions.
It's the whiteout game. Against a Minnesota team that's not as good as Penn State. There will be more than 50 recruits at this game. It's a gigantic opportunity to rebuild momentum and confidence.
Win this, and the season's biggest goals are still attainable.
Lose this, and the season could completely unravel in a hurry, the same way things did each of the past two years.
Pretty much the entire Nittany Nation has been blasting James Franklin all week, coming off a 41-17 loss at Michigan in which the Lions were not prepared or physically competitive.
The overreaction to that loss has been crazy, although not unexpected.
It was just one game, and was Penn State's first loss after a 5-0 start.
The comical aspect of this week's overreaction is that a lot of fans seem to think the season is over, that there's nothing left to play for. Which is all just ... well, ridiculous.
What's that? Fans being ridiculous after a loss? Get outta here!
There IS still a lot to play for this season, and it all starts Saturday against the Gophers. Win this one, and Penn State will go into next week's home game against Ohio State still in the hunt for a Big Ten title and playoff berth. Yes, it would take a win over an outstanding Buckeyes team, but the Lions would at least still be in the running.
But if Penn State cannot beat MInnesota, then the noise around the program will become enormously intense. This team will be considered a fraud, once again for the second straight year, after a 5-0 start. Everyone will be ripping Franklin and saying Penn State is doomed for the next nine years because of his lengthy contract extension.
The way to quiet all that noise -- the only way -- is to go out and win. Even if it's an ugly win. Because that would at least prevent a total meltdown, not only outside the program, but also possibly inside the program.
Franklin is in no danger of losing his job, like he was six years ago when Minnesota visited following a disastrous loss at Michigan. If the coach had not received a new 10-year contract following last season, then yeah, there would be a whole lot more pressure on him in this game. But the school would owe him $72 million if it fired him after this season, so, yeah, that ain't happening.
Regardless of pressure about his job security, there's no doubt this week has shown just how much external pressure the fan base can put on the coach and the players when the team turns in the kind of dud like we saw last week at Michigan.
Here's what Franklin said Tuesday about that pressure:
"Where I probably am concerned about it is ... it's hard for me to insulate the players and the staff from it.
"Winning is hard to do at this level." Franklin later added. "That's our focus. ... What I'm trying to do is everything I possibly can to control the Lasch Building and the messages and the vibe that's in that building so that the Lasch practice fields are the way they need to be. And then Beaver Stadium is the way it needs to be, so then we've got a chance for 110,000 or 107,000 fans, or whatever it is, coming out of that stadium Saturday night at some time around, 11:50 or 12:00, happy."
THE ESSENTIALS
• Who: No. 16 Penn State (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten) vs. Minnesota (4-2, 1-2)
• When: 7:30 p.m. Saturday
• Where: Beaver Stadium (106,572)
• Weather: Partly cloudy, 57°, 1% chance of rain, 4 mph wind
• TV: ABC
• Radio: Penn State Sports Radio Network
• Satellite: Sirius XM 81, online 957
• Media notes: Penn State | Minnesota
CIARROCCA ON PENN STATE TENURE
Kirk Ciarrocca really hadn't spoken publicly about his time as Penn State's offensive coordinator in 2020, which ended with him getting fired and replaced by Mike Yurcich. Ciarrocca is now back as Minnesota's offensive coordinator, which makes this a very intriguing matchup since you would think he's had this game circled on his calendar.
Ciarrocca was asked this week by the Minnesota media about his tenure with the Lions.
"Well, let's say this: It didn't turn out the way I wanted it to," he said. "So that's disappointing, right? And there were a lot of reasons for that, but it didn't turn out the way I wanted. But I'm a better person for it and a better coach, and there was a lot of things I learned.
"And I wouldn't change my journey that I've had in the coaching world for anything. There's been bumps in the road at times, and there's been highs and lows with it. But along the way, I've learned a lot and experiences that I can continue to share that hopefully helps our young players model their life after. We all face adversity at different times. And it's not the adversity, it's how you respond to it that really matters."
Ciarrocca then closed with this:
"I don't have any ill feelings toward Penn State, or James, or the program there. But it didn't go the way I wanted it to go."
TWO REASONS
Two reasons Penn State will win:
1. It's the whiteout. There's just a magic in the air for these games. There's a lot of pride and character in the Penn State program, and what happened last week was embarrassing for everyone. Look for the Lions to come out and play with fire and passion, and the fact that this isn't a great opponent only helps.
2. The Gophers may not have starting QB Tanner Morgan, who was injured last week and is questionable. If he can't go, that's a huge issue for Minnesota. The Gophers run the ball well but don't have as good of an offensive line as Michigan, and the fact that Penn State's defense just saw this kind of opponent last week will help the Lions be better prepared.
Two reasons Minnesota will win:
1. Penn State is reeling some, but so are the Gophers, who have dropped two in a row after a 4-0 start. They are even more of a desperate team right now than the Lions, which makes them dangerous.
2. Mohamed Ibrahim is an excellent tailback, and the Gophers know their identity on offense. If they can execute their game plan well -- and you know Ciarrocca will have a good game plan -- then the visitors certainly could win this.
FIVE KEYS
My five keys for Penn State:
1. If in fact it is Sean Clifford at QB, which everyone expects, then he needs to come out and be a leader by example. That means performance. It's always been amazing that when Franklin or Yurcich talk about Clifford and the things he does well, it's always about leadership and knowledge and experience. But they don't rave about his actual skills or ability or production. That's because, as we all know, none of that has ever been Cliford's strong suit. But he's down to nitty gritty time in his college career, so it's up to him to determine if he's going to be able to deliver strong performances in these huge upcoming games.
2. Now, even if Clifford does start, we MUST see Drew Allar get some meaningful experience in this game. If Franklin refuses to do that, then he will open himself up to more criticism, and that's even if Penn State wins. In short, it'll be fine if Clifford is on a short leash early in the game, with Allar coming in and getting a chance to spark the offense.
3. Repeat from last week: Penn State's linebackers aren't real good, and that hurts going up against a strong running team. Michigan took advantage of the Lions' defensive line and linebackers last week, and while Minnesota surely won't run for 418 yards, the Gophers can do a lot of damage on the ground. Let's see if Franklin's challenge about guys being undersized and all that stuff motivates the defensive players.
4. It's put up or shut up time for Yurcich. The offensive coordinator has these next two big games to prove himself and try to keep his job. If he can't find ways to beat Minnesota and then at least keep the offense competitive next week against Ohio State, then he's gotta go after this year. Now, the issue with all that is Yurcich recruited Allar, and that connection was a huge factor in the Lions landing the prized QB recruit. So, might Allar look to transfer if Yurcich were to be fired? You would think it's possible at least. So, Yurcich could prevent a lot of drama from happening by doing a better job.
5. Penn State needs to regain its swagger. This was an extremely confident team coming back from Auburn, but now there has to be a lot of doubt in the locker room. If the Lions can come out and make a statement in this game with a comfortable win, it would do wonders for their confidence going into next week's game against Ohio State.
PREDICTION
Penn State 23, Minnesota 16
These are two good defenses, and I expect Morgan to miss the game, which will severely impact what the Gophers can do offensively.
HOW TO BET THE GAME
Penn State is favored by 5. Over/under is only 43.
It's a dangerous play since we don't know for sure if Morgan can go for the Gophers. I'm gonna assume he's out and go with Penn State to cover the -5.
But ...
If we see that Morgan will play, see what it does to the line and and you could probably buy the Gophers up to +7 for a reasonable vig.
