It's going to take more than just a hopeful jump-start from quarterback Kedon Slovis, or another record rushing performance from Israel Abanikanda to put Pitt in a position to earn a victory out of its open week.
It's going to take the performances of the five men which line up in front of them -- from within a unit which is thin due to injury.
On the other side of the ball, Pitt's defense line has its most unique challenge of the season on tap, with the electrifying, dynamic, and at-times unstoppable Malik Cunningham under center for Louisville (3-3, 1-3 ACC).
If the Panthers (4-2, 1-1 ACC) want to begin the second half of their season with a victory, it's going to take a total effort from each of their units within the trenches.
Call it vintage Pat Narduzzi ball, call it Pitt's brand of football, or whatever you want. But this is exactly what Pitt's calling card should have been all along from the preseason, with these two units lauded as the strengths of the team with NFL-caliber talent on each side.
THE O-LINE
Abanikanda's strong start to his season does merit the offensive line, but when the offense struggles within the passing game like Pitt has, some of that does fall on pass blocking.
Let's get analytical and discuss.
According to Football Outsiders, Pitt has allowed a 6.3% sack rate on standard downs, which is 100th in Football Bowl Subdivision.
(A "standard down" is defined as any play which takes place on a first down, 2nd-and-7 or fewer, 3rd-and-4 or fewer, and 4th-and-4 or fewer.)
This is down tremendously from 2021, when the Panthers' offensive line accounted for a 3.7% sack rate on standard downs, which was tied for 25th in FBS.
It has been a better unit for run blocking this season, with an average of 2.75 line yards per carry, 56th in FBS. This metric gives 100% credit to the offensive line for rushing yardage between 0-3 yards and 50% credit for yards 4-8. On standard downs, though, this jumps to 2.89 line yards per carry, which is 26th in FBS.
This is slightly below the 2.95 ALY rushed for last season, which finished tied for 18th in FBS.
What does this mean?
It means that perception is reality.
With Carter Warren out for the season with a leg injury, Gabe Houy working back from a preseason Achilles injury, and Owen Drexel being out since Week 2, Narduzzi and offensive line coach Dave Borbely have had to do quite a bit of shifting.
Here are Pitt's starting offensive line units, from left to right, through each game:
• WVU: Warren, Marcus Minor, Drexel, Jake Kradel, Matt Goncalves.
• TEN: Warren, Minor, Drexel, Kradel, Goncalves.
• WMU: Warren, Minor, Kradel (Drexel out), Blake Zubovic, Goncalves.
• URI: Warren, Minor, Kradel, Zubovic, Goncalves (Houy return)
• GT: Branson Taylor (Warren out), Minor, Kradel, Zubovic, Goncalves (Houy split)
• VT: Taylor, Minor, Kradel, Zubovic, Goncalves (Houy split)
According to Pitt's official notes, Ryan Jacoby earned four "starts," but most of his snaps have been as the third tight end, in heavy formations, and on special teams. Most of everybody else that played accounted for special teams.
Borbely has had to roll out three separate starting units in six games, and once Houy is back to 100% -- which could be as early as this week -- it will be four different starting units. Once Drexel returns, it will be five.
That's not exactly ideal, but credit Pitt for adjusting as it had to, because the run blocking metrics could have fallen off in a much, much worse fashion otherwise.
Note the one constant in the above list: Minor.
The redshirt senior has hardly missed a snap for Pitt, and it's now his time to be an on-field leader with the team captain Warren sidelined. Borbely said he has already taken on that role head-first, starting in the meeting room, one which Borbely wants to be a player-led room.
"He's about 40 years old, so he can coach them," Borbely quipped. "He actually had some words to say to them after practice in a positive vain about what we could do. I didn't stay around to listen to it, but I caught part of it as I walked away. He's been a very good leader for us, and I think he's taken a lot of the younger guys under his wing, and that's really who he is off the field, as well. He's done a great job for us in that way."
What was said in that meeting?
"I was just saying that we've got six games left, we need to do everything in our might to get to where we want to be," Minor said. "We already know that we want to go to a championship. In doing so, we've got to watch extra film, we've got to do the little things right, we've got to make sure our details are perfect. We know that every play's not going to be perfect, but we're chasing excellence. To do so, we need to make sure we're wrapping up everything around here (the practice facility), whether it's extra film, extra weight room, extra things on the field, just so that we know that we're crossing our T's and doting our I's so that we have nothing to worry about on game day."
And, it's a role Minor is embracing.
"It's trust," he said. "It's being able to trust. There's older guys that just step up and do exactly what that is. Player-led teams are the best teams, so if we're able to lead and do exactly what we want to do, then one day we'll reach our goals."
There is no doubt that Pitt will feel the loss of Warren, a former All-ACC second-team selection.
"He's been our starting left tackle for -- (20)19, '20, '21 -- three and a half years," Borbely said. "And as a team captain, and certainly that piece of it doesn't go away. But it certainly hurts. I know he's disappointed, I'm disappointed. We take the 'next man up' mentality. It's been that way for a couple weeks when he was trying to rehab an ankle and then had an MRI on the knee. So, those tackles, Branson Taylor and Matt Goncalves and Gabe Houy have filled in admirably well, yes."
Narduzzi hinted at a potential rotation of Taylor, Goncalves, and Houy at left tackle, but it was Taylor who stepped in and started the two games in Warren's absence.
Now, the student is aiming to replicate the master.
"I've got to be better," Taylor said this week. "I'm not perfect, but I've got to get better, and that just comes with experience. ... I'm going to try to work just like Carter did. Me and him worked a lot through this offseason. He's been my mentor since I got here my freshman year. He took me under his wing, so I hope to get the same feedback."
Borbely praised Taylor for his composure, and noted that the sophomore is "right on schedule" within his development at the tackle position.
"I think the biggest thing that's impressed me has been his composure as a starter and his composure on the sideline and being able to tell me what's happening out there to him," Borbely said. "To me, that's been a huge factor."
Louisville's base 3-4 defense leads the ACC in sacks with 23 in six games, and their charge is led by YaYa Diaby and Ashton Gillotte, who are second and third in the ACC with 5.0 and 4.0 sacks, respectively. Diaby's 7.0 tackles for loss rank seventh in the ACC.
Pitt will need every bit of Taylor, Minor, and Co. to produce on Saturday.
THE D-LINE
This will be briefer than the above section, as one player really needs to be keyed here.
Cunningham has rushed for triple the amount of touchdowns (nine) as he has thrown, and he is the end-all, be-all for the Cardinals' offense which leads the ACC in rushing at 207.2 yards per game and maintains the No. 5-ranked offense in the conference at 437.2 yards per game.
Defensive coordinator Randy Bates was asked of an overall assessment of his defense this week, and he offered some stark words about its performance through six games:
"I think we've been inconsistent. That's the way I'd put it," he said. "I think that we've had well over half of our defense in the top 22 out for at least half of a game. (That) creates that a little bit. I'm excited that we're going to be close to full speed, if not full speed, this weekend. Because of that, I think that we're starting to get used to playing together with the people who play together. That's the hard thing, when you have a lot of different people rolling in. We're hopefully back to pretty close."
Bates will need every piece he can get with the task of defending Cunningham ahead. Deslin Alexandre and Haba Baldonado have missed parts of the season on the defensive line, and SirVocea Dennis and Brandon George have missed time at linebacker, which caused some additional shuffling in the first half of the season.
But the injury report can only be stretched so thin. At the end of the day, it comes back to having depth to compensate and for it to be able to slide into prominent roles and make plays. Over the bye week, Bates said he wanted his players to get back to fundamentals.
"At the end of the day it's back to basics," Bates said. "Tackling, getting off blocks, attention to detail. It comes down to alignment and assignment about nine times out of 10. So those little things make a huge difference, way more than all the fancy defenses."
Sometimes a bye week can come at the right time, and sometimes it can come at the worst possible time. Pitt's bye week undoubtedly came at the right time, with an opportunity to re-focus on those details and those basics.
Especially while preparing for the best athlete they'll see at the quarterback position all season.
"I think (Cunningham) just has a great knack to make you miss," Bates said. "He's explosive, he's fast, and he's got great change of direction, so you've really got to go take your shots. You can't stand there and hope you're going to tackle him. You've got to go make that tackle. ... There's a lot of times with him it's open space, it's one-on-one, and you've got to go take that shot."
Containment will have to be a success point from all three levels. That, obviously starts with the defensive line and generating pressure. Once Cunningham is out of the pocket, he becomes more dangerous.
"I think he's a really good dual-threat quarterback who can really run the ball," Alexandre said. "Just to be able to be a dual-threat, I think that makes you a good quarterback because the defense has to defend a lot more. ... I think (playing smart) is something we always think about, no matter who we play. Just be smart. We respect them, but we still got to play our game."
PROGRAMMING NOTE
• Our Andrew Mundy will be making the trip to Louisville for coverage of the game, so be sure to follow along in our Live File. I'm headed to Texas for a vacation over the weekend. Talk to you all on Monday!
THE ESSENTIALS
• Who: Pitt (4-2, 1-1 ACC) at Louisville (3-3, 1-3 ACC)
• When: 8 p.m. Saturday
• Where: Cardinal Stadium, Louisville, Ky.
• Spread: Louisville by 2.5
• Weather: 53°, Partly cloudy, 4% chance of rain, 12 mph wind
• TV: ACC Network
• Radio: 93.7 The Fan, 92.1 WPTS-FM
• Streaming: ESPN
• Satellite: SiriusXM 134, Internet 956
• Live Stats
• Media notes: Pitt / Louisville
TEN TO WATCH
• #2 Israel Abanikanda -- The ACC's leading rusher and the Pro Football Focus mid-season All-American broke Tony Dorsett's single-game record for yards in his last outing against Virginia Tech. Does the bye week slow him down, or can Abanikanda continue his run of dominance?
• #6 Rodney Hammond Jr. -- Narduzzi hinted at the idea of Hammond returning to action following the bye week. He dressed but did not play in Pitt's last two games, and has been out since getting injured late against West Virginia in Week 1.
• #8 Calijah Kancey -- If Pitt is going to contain Cunningham, then the effort of the multi-time midseason All-American (from CBS Sports, The Athletic, Pro Football Focus, and ESPN) will be the main focus in plugging up the middle. He has registered 8.5 tackles for loss and 3.0 sacks this season.
• #14 Konata Mumpfield -- Pitt's leader in receptions (24) missed the Virginia Tech game, but is expected to return to the field on Saturday. Mumpfield is second on the Panthers in receiving yards with 257, and he is fourth on the team in all-purpose yards with 261.
• #31 Erick Hallett II -- The defense will need effort on all three levels on defense to contain Cunningham, and Hallett's ability as a pass defender might need to transition into becoming more of a run stopper on Saturday. We know Brandon Hill has the ability to play inside of center field, but it will be interesting to see how Narduzzi utilizes his safeties.
• #32 Shayne Simon -- When Dennis missed the second half against Virginia Tech, Simon slid over to the middle linebacker spot. He recovered a fumble and paced the team with four solo tackles and nine total tackles in the effort.
"When a player like Voss goes down, everybody has to step up," Simon said, "and so I've been able to learn both positions and be comfortable with both positions, so just trying to do what I can to help the team at that point."
• #86 Gavin Bartholomew -- Pitt's top tight end has been targeted just 17 times in six games. That needs to change. I'd like to see a handful go his way against the Cardinals.
• #87 Haba Baldonado -- We're still waiting on the defensive end to turn the corner, as he has recorded only a half of a sack and 2.5 tackles for loss in five games. Maybe this matchup against the mobile and versatile Cunningham is just the thing he needs to get going.
• #90 Ben Sauls -- Sauls has made 7 of 10 field goals with a long of 48 yards this season. Against Virginia Tech before the bye, he made his lone try from 47 yards. He hasn't missed a field goal since a 27-yard try at Western Michigan on Sept. 17 (2-for-2 since).
• #94 Sam Vander Haar -- If Pitt wants to greatly maximize its potential of preventing Cunningham from doing damage, then special teams has to contribute to that. Vander Haar has registered just one punt of 50 or more yards this season, but five of his 22 total kicks have rested within the 20-yard line. Field position will be pivotal in a matchup like this, and a clutch punt or two from Vander Haar can make all of the difference in a victory or a loss for the Panthers.
