One week from now, Pitt will resume its 2022 season and begin the second half of its ACC Championship defending season. The Panthers are 4-2 overall and 1-1 in ACC play, and have an ACC-only schedule left to close with.
We have learned a lot about Pat Narduzzi's team over these seven weeks of the regular season. We know that Israel Abanikanda is currently among the best offensive players in the ACC -- and perhaps the nation -- and is on a career-defining tear at Pitt.
But as we look forward to Narduzzi and Co. returning to work on Monday at the UPMC Rooney Sports Complex in preparation for next week's game at Louisville, there is much, much more to be desired beyond what Abanikanda is doing with running the football.
An offense led by former, one-time Heisman Trophy candidate Kedon Slovis has struggled often to find any sort of consistency, especially from within the Georgia Tech loss when the Panthers played three-and-a-half quarters of football through a field of mud, while the Yellow Jackets were buzzing around with speed, determination, and confidence.
That final trait among those three is the largest one which Pitt's offensive unit is lacking, and will need to find in order to defeat some of these tougher opponents remaining on the slate.
It's not that Slovis doesn't have arm talent. After all, Slovis was a rock star at USC (it helped having now-NFL receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Pittman, and Drake London to throw to, but I digress); this is the guy who beat out J.T. Daniels at quarterback at Southern California and forced him to transfer. He thrived with the Trojans and, after transferring to Pitt, at one point had top-10 odds within early Heisman projections.
We know he can sling it downfield, and do so with accuracy. On our last two H2P Podcast recordings alongside our friend Gary Morgan, we spoke in piecemeal about Slovis' abilities. I am on the side of the fence which believes Slovis still has that talent that we saw in previous years at USC, but I think the current restriction and the primary reason for his struggles are coming from a mental standpoint.
Call it the "yips," call it a "lack of confidence," or what ever you might say. There is clearly a disconnect somewhere within Slovis.
But is it a lack of confidence within himself? Or with his receiving corps? I'm not suggesting he is not confident in Jared Wayne, Konata Mumpfield, or Bub Means at all, but I also don't think that all of the rhythm and timing that should be there after six games, is there.
And, that's a problem.
On multiple instances in the Georgia Tech game -- he didn't need to do much against Virginia Tech, thanks to Abanikanda -- the offense couldn't find rhythm, and a large part of that was due to Slovis' inability to see the field well. There were times where he would make the short read rather than chancing a ball downfield, and then there were instances where he would (actually!) take the deep shot downfield while his second or third read was sitting at the first-down stick wide open.
Slovis is a college quarterback, and he isn't Patrick Mahomes, but a Power Five QB has to be able to at least read through progressions and survey the field. Slovis is 79th -- 79th! -- in the Football Bowl Subdivision in QB rating at 134.8. He is also holding onto the ball for far too long, at a rate of 2.91 seconds per dropback within the pocket before throwing it. That stat is 13th-most among Power Five QBs with at least 100 dropbacks, according to Pro Football Focus.
And when he holds onto the ball for that long, he tends to struggle more than if he would get rid of it quicker. The longer he holds onto the ball, the more often he attempts a check-down or an underneath option. I won't glorify that with a stat, because that's just "well, duh" football.
So, yes, if you're thinking that Slovis holds onto the ball for too long, and that he doesn't taken enough shots downfield, then you would be 100% correct.
If the Panthers want a shot at the ACC title repeat, they have to start by getting Slovis back on track. Whether that's getting him more comfortable in the pocket, forcing a ball or two deep within the Louisville game, or by Frank Cignetti Jr. dialing up a succession or some semblance of game plan (maybe even watering it down?) for Slovis to mix in long and deep, then they should do it. He needs to find his stride in some fashion, or the Panthers will struggle against ACC teams which are better than the two they just played.
MORE FROM THE SOUTH SIDE
β’ This second half of the season better see more Gavin Bartholomew involved in the passing game. He has 17 targets in total in six games, which ranks 35th among all Power Five tight ends. That's simply not enough. When targeted, Pitt's top tight end has been super reliable. He has 14 receptions on 229 yards and two acrobatic touchdowns. If you want to calculate QB rating just based off of those stats when throwing to Bartholomew -- 14-17, 229 yards, two TDs -- it's a 158.0.
I don't think he is at 100% health quite yet, which has some to do with his lack of involvement at times, but this kid is a bona fide weapon and has All-ACC talent. Pitt needs to utilize him more.
β’ Am I being too generous with my takes and analysis on Calijah Kancey? Because I think that he is having a dynamite season along Pitt's defensive line. The preseason All-American has played up to the standard he set last season and has consistently wreaked havoc along the line, even while facing double teams.
Kancey is currently on pace to finish this season with 42 total tackles (eight more than last season), 17.0 tackles for loss (four more) and six sacks (one fewer). He is a darling among the Pro Football Focus observers:
Highest graded DTs from Week 5:
β PFF College (@PFF_College) October 3, 2022
π₯ Calijah Kancey: 90.2
π₯ Zacch Pickens: 88.1
π₯ JerβZhan Newton: 82.6 pic.twitter.com/bpP5XFbfMV
National Team of the Week β¨ @PFF
β Pitt Football (@Pitt_FB) October 5, 2022
Calijah Kancey Β» @CKancey8
90.2 grade, 3.5 TFL, 1 sack π#H2P Β» @PFF_College pic.twitter.com/J3lpBGIybf
Calijah Kanceyπ³π³
β PFF College (@PFF_College) September 10, 2022
pic.twitter.com/WAqWad5oDR
Tell me what you think in the comments about Kancey's season. I think he has been excellent and is a sure-fire All-ACC selection at the end of the year. And it won't be a matter of if he gets selected in the NFL draft once he declares; we'll be wondering which round he'll be picked in and for which team he suits up on Sundays.
β’ Here is a take, in the form of a declarative sentence: Pitt's linebacking corps has been the best unit on the team this season.
Pitt is fifth in the ACC in total defense and rushing defense, and this follows an offseason which three starting, veteran linebackers were lost from the roster. This left SirVocea Dennis without any running mates which he had been used to playing alongside, and Pitt needed to quickly re-tool that position.
They did that through the transfer portal by bringing in Shayne Simon (Notre Dame) and Tylar Wiltz (Missouri State), and the underrated rise of Bangally Kamara has given them a tremendous boost, as he is third to Dennis for the team lead in tackles.
Solomon DeShields has provided a boost as a blitzer with his 4.0 tackles for loss this season. This unit was forced into adjustments preseason, and they haven't missed a beat with the new pieces inserted.
β’ Pitt's toughest game remaining on the schedule, in my opinion, is the matchup at North Carolina on Oct. 29. The Tar Heels are a mixed bag when it comes to consistency. They have the No. 1 scoring offense and the last-ranked scoring defense within the ACC. It'll be a fun and entertaining game. I'm expecting it to be high-scoring and filled with splash plays all around.
β’ Pitt's second-toughest game remaining on the schedule is the week after that, on Nov. 5 against Syracuse. Garrett Shrader has surged at QB this year. Sean Tucker is the second-best running back in the conference. The Orange are second in the ACC in total defense. This one just has all of the makings to be a great college football game at Acrisure Stadium.
β’ Pitt's most impressive players have been Abanikanda and Kancey, but there is something to be said about Marcus Minor at left guard. He was recognized as the ACC's offensive lineman of the week following Abanikanda's record day against Virginia Tech, but deserves some more recognition for being the anchor of that unit all season.
Minor is one of two offensive lineman to start all six games at the same position (along with Matt Goncalves; Jake Kradel has started each game, but at two positions) and has rarely if ever come off the field to take a breather. Even while Pitt has shuffled its line to account for injuries to Owen Drexel and Carter Warren, the unit hasn't suffered much from it largely due to Minor being in the middle.
β’ I found it VERY interesting that Narduzzi discussed -- gasp! -- injuries after the Virginia Tech game. It sounds like the Panthers are getting running back Rodney Hammond Jr. back soon, along with the potential for Drexel and Warren to come back.
"I think we'll have some guys back," he said. "Rodney Hammond will be back. Pregame, I'm like, 'Dude, you ready to go?' He went through pregame. He looks like he's ready to go. Hopefully we'll get two starting offensive linemen back. Hopefully Konata will be back. Konata has been good the last two weeks."
Does Pitt need Hammond back? Yes. Do they give him a light work load when he eventually does return? We'll see.
β’ Four of Pitt's final six games are on the road: Louisville, North Carolina, Virginia, Miami. The Panthers are 21-17 on the road in the regular season in the Narduzzi era. Their last road loss to an ACC team was on Nov. 28, 2020, at Clemson.
I see 3-1 here, with a loss to either North Carolina or Miami.
β’ The Panthers' remaining strength of schedule is 57th in the country and is right in the middle of the pack in the ACC. According to teamrankings.com, Pitt is projected to finish with 7.2 wins and 4.8 losses, it has a 90% chance to become bowl eligible, and it has a 4.5% chance to win the ACC (fourth behind Clemson, North Carolina, and Syracuse).
I'll leave off by asking: is this a fair projection? Where do you have the Panthers finishing this season? Leave your answer in the comments.
