ANN ARBOR, Mich. -- This is a huge game for Penn State, obviously, but it's not the season.
It is not a must-win game.
It is a must-play-well game. A game for Penn State to show it's for real. To compete toe to toe for four quarters with an excellent opponent. To show that the program has overcome the gigantic disappointments of the past two seasons.
Even if the No. 10 Nittany Lions lose to No. 4 Michigan on Saturday, it will not end their hopes for a Big Ten title and College Football Playoff berth. Those hopes will hinge squarely on Ohio State's visit to Beaver Stadium in two weeks, assuming that Penn State rebounds and takes care of business next week against Minnesota.
Beat Ohio State -- and then hope the Buckeyes beat Michigan -- and everything could still be there for the taking for an 11-1 Penn State team with regards to a playoff berth. But, beat Michigan and then lose to Ohio State, and the same 11-1 record won't look as good, simply because it won't have the boost of a win over the Buckeyes, who would then likely go into the playoff undefeated.
So, no matter what happens against the Wolverines, we'll need to be careful not to overreact.
Well, with one exception.
Penn State cannot come out here and get blown out. Again.
The Lions were good in 2016, and yet got hammered at the Big House, 49-10.
The Lions were good in 2018, and yet got hammered at the Big House, 42-7.
If that happens again Saturday, the Nittany Nation is going to go berserk. And rightfully so, because it would indicate that this year's 5-0 start was a mirage.
Also, if that happens again Saturday, it could be a crushing blow to the team's confidence that leads to another death spiral this season.
Penn State can beat Michigan. It absolutely can. We've had two weeks to discuss and digest the ways -- and I've got keys coming up in a bit -- but the bottom line is that the Lions will have to play well on both sides of the ball for all four quarters, against a tough opponent, in a hostile environment.
But even if the Lions don't win, they can still come out of this game feeling good about themselves as long as it's a good, tightly contested game that comes down to the wire.
Then they come out and beat Minnesota, regain their swagger and lay it all on the line at home against Ohio State with everything on the line.
Try to keep all of this in perspective if Penn State starts losing this game, which, I know, can be tough to do when emotions get all wrapped up in each and every twist and turn of a game.
THE ESSENTIALS
• Who: No. 10 Penn State (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) at No. 4 Michigan (6-0, 3-0)
• When: Noon Saturday
• Where: Michigan Stadium (107,601)
• Weather: Partly cloudy, 48°, 2% rain, 16 mph wind
• TV: FOX
• Radio: Penn State Sports Radio Network
• Satellite: Sirius XM 84, online 957
• Media notes: Penn State | Michigan
BETTER AFTER THIS BYE
It's no secret James Franklin has struggled after bye weeks, going 3-6 during his Penn State tenure. But he believes the team actually got better during the bye week, making it more ready for the challenge that awaits Saturday.
"I think we've done a good job of doing self-scout and really kind of having a good idea of who we are, what we are, what are the areas that we need to work on, what are the areas we need to build on," Franklin said.
"Obviously, been able to take some time going good-on-good at practice. Then being able to take some time and get a head start on Michigan. I think all those things are valuable."
COACHING MATTERS
There are reasons why college coaches make so much money and are the kings of the school.
This game is one of those reasons.
Because this game almost certainly will come down to coaching, with one side or the other proving that it has done a better job of scheming, adjusting, preparing and executing everything that needs to be done to come out on top against an opponent that is very similar talent-wise.
Penn State has really good players. Michigan has really good players. It's strength vs. strength with Penn State's defense vs. Michigan's offense. There will be quite a cat-and-mouse game going on throughout the contest, as coordinators and assistant coaches make little adjustments here and there to capitalize on or force mismatches.
This is where coaches earn their money.
It's also where Penn State fans have grown to be leery of Franklin, who has just come up small too many times in big games for the fan base to trust him. And hey, on the other side, the Michigan fan base felt that way about Jim Harbaugh, until he finally broke through last year with his first Big Ten title and first playoff berth.
To his credit, Franklin has done an exceptional job this season of letting Manny Diaz and Mike Yurcich do their jobs on defense and offense, respectively. The fear, in a game like this that should be close, is that the head coach will interfere too much and throw off what the coordinators really want to do. Either that, or that the coordinators themselves aren't up for the challenge.
Again, the phrase I've been using a lot this week is the cat-and-mouse game between the coaches, and we'll see if the Lions' staff is ready.
DIAZ IN SPOTLIGHT
Diaz's defense has been superb, and will need to be again Saturday for the Lions to beat Michigan.
As we talk about the cat-and-mouse game, it's going to be fascinating to see how he goes about trying to stop the Wolverines' outstanding running game, while also having everyone ready for the play-action passes that can succeed in a run-heavy offense.
Diaz not only will earn his money in this game, he'll continue to audition for a chance to earn waaaaay more money with a head coaching job in a couple of months. The better the defense plays in this game, the better the odds that Diaz will land another one of those jobs.
He was asked Thursday about having to balance his current job with the possibility of future head coaching openings.
“When you start to look in the future, bad things happen for you in the present,” Diaz said. “I’m fortunate to be the defensive coordinator at Penn State. That’s pretty cool to say out loud. Just trying to handle that to the best of my ability."
TWO REASONS
Instead of rehashing things, you can read my three reasons why Penn State will win or lose from this story earlier in the week.
FIVE KEYS
My five keys for Penn State:
1. First down is huge for the Wolverines, so the Lions' defense needs to get stops and put the offense in uncomfortable long-yardage situations on second and third down. Michigan is pretty predictable when it comes to actually running the ball on typical running downs. It's like the Wolverines just dare you to try and stop them, and a lot of defenses can't stop them. They have an excellent offensive line and excellent tailback in Blake Corum. Penn State has the athletes on defense to slow down the running game, but Diaz will have to get everyone in the right scheme to do so. Tackle P.J. Mustipher will have to be a big factor in this one. And Penn State's linebackers have to tackle well, as does everyone else.
2. The Lions have to be able to run the ball effectively. That means the offensive line needs to block well, which will be a challenge against an excellent run-stopping defense. Who will be the primary tailback here? Nicholas Singleton has the breakaway speed but hasn't shown he can run between the tackles much yet, while Kaytron Allen is the opposite. I think Allen has a chance to be the lead guy here. And don't forget about Keyvone Lee, who topped 100 yards rushing the last time Penn State visited Michigan in 2020.
3. Sean Clifford needs to be extremely efficient. In everything he does. That means completing close to 70 percent, not turning the ball over and taking off and running when the situation calls for it. Clifford has done all of those things well at times in his career, although rarely for all four quarters in a game. This would be a good time for him to put it all together. Oh, and if he can connect on one or two deep balls, that would be massive. The Lions have struggled with that aspect this season.
4. The red zone will be huge for both defenses. Because I can see both offenses moving the ball well at times, so it will come down to whether they can find a way to get into the end zone. Once again, it's all that cat-and-mouse game stuff I was talking about earlier.
5. There are a lot of other things I can put here, such as special teams or field position or turnovers or whatever. And all of those things will be important. But the bottom line here is that Penn State needs to execute well and play solid football all around from start to finish. The Lions did that against Auburn, but they've had too many long lulls in the other four games. They cannot afford those lulls against this opponent.
PREDICTION
Michigan 27, Penn State 20
A good, close game throughout, and the Lions will have a chance at the end. But the Wolverines are at home and, frankly, have the better all-around team.
HOW TO BET THE GAME
Michigan is favored by 7. Over/under is 50.5.
I say buy the line to Michigan -6 for -129. That way you're not stuck with a push if the final is by a touchdown.
Having seen Penn State get blown out here in 2016 and 2018, I'm always leery about it happening again. So I feel pretty confident that the Wolverines can cover -6, and that they may win by a whole lot more.
