ALTOONA, Pa. -- Let's get into the Xs and Os this week. Because in a matchup of two very talented teams such as No. 10 Penn State and No. 4 Michigan, the outcome often comes down to strategy, adjustments and execution.
We'll kick off this edition of the midweek top 10 with three ways Penn State can win the game, followed by three ways the Nittany Lions can lose the game.
1. Lions have to at least slow down Michigan's running game
Everybody knows the Wolverines are going to commit to the run. It's a Jim Harbaugh staple, and he will stick with that 1987-style strategy pretty much no matter what.
The Wolverines have an excellent tailback in Blake Corum, who has 735 yards rushing through six games and is averaging 6.2 yards per carry. Corum is only 5-foot-8, but he's 210 pounds and very tough to tackle. The Marshall, Va., native was heavily recruited by all kinds of power programs, as you can see here, but Penn State never offered him a scholarship.
Corum missed last year's game at Beaver Stadium with an ankle injury, but the Wolverines still won, 21-17. Hassan Haskins, a fourth-round NFL draft pick by the Titans, had 31 carries for 156 yards in that game, doing exactly what Michigan likes to do on the ground. This time around, Corum will be the one doing all the heavy lifting, and don't be surprised if he gets close to 30 carries.
For Penn State to win, a huge key will be the linebackers coming up and helping in run support. Michigan's offensive line is very good, and while Penn State's D-line is good against the run, this is a different type of challenge.
Are the linebackers up for this challenge? That's a giant question mark for me, so i asked James Franklin on Tuesday to evaluate the group thus far. Here's his full answer:
"We felt pretty good from an experience and production standpoint about the two outside linebacker positions (entering the season). But I think we probably feel even better because the depth that we've been able to create with Abdul (Carter) behind Curtis (Jacobs), I think has helped us. ... Most people would agree we're in a better position from that standpoint than we were coming into the season, based on what we've been able to see and know up to this point.
"The biggest question mark was at Mike linebacker. Both (Tyler) Elsdon and Kobe (King) have played a lot of football now. They're no longer first-time starters. When you get to this point of the season, that's no longer something that is discussed or accepted to be talking about, 'Well, it's your first year starting'. We're past that point in the season.
"They will be challenged in this game when you talk about the run game, the variety of the run game, the diversity of the run game, the play-action pass off of it, and the talent as well. Their talent on their offensive line, running back positions have done a really good job. I think we're in a much different position, a much better position than we were to start the season. Those guys continue to gain confidence and gain experience. We're going to need those guys to play really well on Saturday based on what we've all seen on film."
2. The red zone defense has be to strong
This is one of Penn State's strengths. Red zone offense is also one of Michigan's strengths, because it can run the ball so well, and that's what most teams prefer doing in the red zone.
So, this will be strength on strength.
The Wolverines are going to move the ball and have scoring opportunities. Even Auburn, with its struggling offense, did that against Penn State last month. But the Lions came up with two huge stops in the first half when the Tigers drove inside the 10, forcing field goals, and those stops changed the entire game.
Can Penn State do that sort of thing to Michigan? If so, the Lions can win the game.
3. We need to see good Sean Clifford
He's been there 17 years. This is self explanatory.
Now, beginning the three ways Penn State could lose ...
4. The defense can't allow Michigan's offense to stay on schedule
I cannot wait to see how defensive coordinator Manny Diaz attacks this chess match. Diaz has been fantastic this season, always making the right moves to shut teams down in the clutch. But this opponent is much, much different for several reasons.
The Wolverines have an outstanding offensive line.
They have an excellent running game.
And they have a passing game that knows how to feed off the running game and catch defenses in mismatches when they try to load up against the run.
For years, we've seen a lot of Penn State's opponents sell out against the run trying to stop Saquon Barkley or Miles Sanders or whomever, and then force the quarterback to beat them. That's exactly what I expect Michigan to do -- load up to try and stop Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen and force Clifford to beat them with his arm.
Might Penn State actually employ that same strategy here, with Diaz selling out by loading up the box to stop Corum & Co.? After all, the Lions have outstanding defensive backs, so why not put them on an island and see how they hold up while loading up the box?
Reader DeepCreekMike posed the question in my Live Qs Tuesday about that possibility. Here was my answer:
Harbaugh will STILL keep running the ball. That's just what he does. They will go to a plan B blocking scheme or something. He ain't abandoning the run in any scenario.
That said, if PSU sells out against the run, you gotta like the secondary's chances to at least be in good coverage position down the field. The problem as I see it would be the shorter and underneath routes. I think PSU would give those up, and Michigan would take advantage of them to keep moving the chains.
Then it comes down to the red zone.
Which is where this game will be decided, for both teams. (Hence my No. 2 point above.)
Franklin mentioned a few times Tuesday how good Michigan is at staying on schedule, meaning they get a lot of yards on early downs and put the offense in very favorable situations. So, it is imperative that Penn State's defense prevent that from happening, such as stopping Corum for 1-2 yards on first down and putting more pressure on the Wolverines' offense.
"Got a ton of respect for what they're doing, how they're doing it," Franklin said of Michigan's offense. "Extremely efficient. I think they do a great job of staying on schedule. First down is obviously a huge factor for them in their offense. It's going to be a challenge. They're able to run it. They're able to throw it. Their offensive line was considered to be the best offensive line in all of college football last year. On top of that, they've got maybe the most productive back in college football over the last couple years.
"They've got wide receivers that can make plays, tight ends that can make plays, and a young and talented quarterback that's leading the nation in completion percentage."
More on that QB in a moment. First, this about the Penn State QB.
5. We cannot see bad Sean Clifford
He's been there 17 years. This is self explanatory.
6. It's time for the offensive line to hold its own
Every big game like this always comes down to Clifford and Penn State's O-line. We addressed Clifford above. The line has been decent this year -- better than the past two years, so that's good at least -- but we still have no idea how the group will hold up against an extremely talented Michigan unit that's No. 5 in the country in total defense, allowing just 247 yards per game.
Franklin was asked about the O-line Tuesday and said it really comes down to consistency.
"There's been flashes of really good things that everybody has been excited about -- our staff, our team, the fans," the coach said. "I think there's been times where we've been really happy with how it's looked and how productive we've been. There's other times where we got to be more consistent and clean some things up, whether we're getting different looks or different fronts or pressures or run-throughs.
"For me," Franklin later added, "it's consistency, making the big block, getting a hat on a hat, but also now blocking with a mentality and trying to finish people so guys can't fall off the block for a run of four yards, we're finishing a block, so now a ball carrier can turn a four-yard run into an explosive run.
"Overall, I've been pleased. I think we're taking steps in the right direction. I think that group is starting to play with some confidence. I think we're doing a good job of, again, staying balanced for as long as we possibly can and being a little bit more unpredictable."
7. Don't overlook J.J. McCarthy, thinking that all Michigan can do is run
The Michigan sophomore was rated as a 5-star prospect by 247Sports. He's got a great background. He is, as Franklin mentioned above, leading the nation in complete percentage at 78.3. He has 1,152 passing yards -- more than Clifford (1,030), albeit in one more game -- with nine TDs and one interception.
McCarthy is legit. Yet strangely, I've seen and heard a lot of comments from Penn State fans that kind of dismiss him, like he's only OK and won't be the major factor if Michigan wins.
Well, sure, the running game will always be the major factor for the Wolverines. But everything about this guy says that he's a good quarterback, and don't be surprised if he's putting the ball on the money and moving the chains against the Penn State defense.
Now, obviously, the secondary is the best part of the Lions' team. And McCarthy hasn't faced DBs this good in his career, so he definitely will get challenged.
But it is so incredibly important that Penn State be able to slow down Michigan's running game, because if the Lions can't do that, then McCarthy will have everything at his disposal from a passing standpoint, including play action, deception, misdirection and anything else.
8. Lions already have gained valuable experience on the road
Penn State won at Purdue and at Auburn the first three weeks of the season, so these guys have confidence they can win away from home.
"I think it helps, obviously," Franklin said, "because we've been on the road before in tough environments. ... The experience matters. The understanding kind of what it takes to win on the road, there's value in that.
"But at the end of the day, all that matters is what we do Saturday. Having our guys ready and prepared for what that moment is going to be like is important."
A lot of the players were on the team when the Lions won at Michigan in 2020, although that was with no fans during the COVID year.
The Big House is huge -- the largest stadium in the country -- but I've never really felt like the atmosphere was incredibly difficult there. The fans are spread out in a bowl, and it doesn't get as loud there as some other big venues.
Still, Penn State got destroyed at Michigan in 2016 (49-10) and 2018 (42-7), so you never know what to expect.
9. The kicking game could be an enormous factor
Feel confident about punter Barney Amor.
Still worry about place-kicker Jake Pinegar, who may be called upon to make a huge field goal in this one.
10. Franklin and the bye week thing
The coach is only 3-6 in games coming off a bye week, including last year's humiliating nine-overtime loss to Illinois at home.
On the one hand, the players are refreshed and all. But this is a terrific opponent, on the road, and Michigan is on a roll having played last week and winning at Indiana with a big second half.
Will Franklin have the team ready after the bye this time around?
We'll see.
The coach was asked Tuesday what kinds of things he's done to be better coming off bye weeks. And Franklin gave a good answer about how the staff spent a lot of time looking at it.
"There's been discussion about studies that we've done in the offseason," he said. "We added an extra day of practice. Staffing-wise, we're able to be in a position where we have analysts and people that are able to get ahead for us and stay ahead. I think that's helped.
"Also, like we talked about, this point of the season, about how we've rotated and played guys to be as healthy and fresh as we possibly can be. Depth has played a part in that in the past. So all those things.
"We spend a lot of time talking about it and studying it in the offseason, talking to different programs, different coaches, different sports scientists, strength coaches, all those types of things to put ourselves in the best position to go win this Saturday."
