ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- To get you ready for the first game of the season, I wrote about the start of the Mitch Trubisky era, and noted the best-case scenario for the Steelers would be for Trubisky to succeed as the stopgap between Ben Roethlisberger and Kenny Pickett. That, as the theory went, would allow some time for the franchise's first-round pick of the 2022 draft to learn the NFL game before dealing with the pressure of taking over the reins of the offense while trying to live up to sky-high expectations.
Turns out, Trubisky couldn't make it more than halfway through his fourth game at the helm before Mike Tomlin decided enough was enough. The offense was putrid under Trubisky. They had scored only four touchdowns in 41 offensive drives, and Trubisky ranks dead last in the NFL in yards per attempt.
It was time to go Pickett. And now, there's no turning back.
Very few should blame Tomlin for sticking with the veteran to start the season. Even though Pickett was coming out of college with a lot of experience and was to be 24 years old by the start of the season, there was some growing to do before the Steelers would allow the Pickett era to begin.
"Kenny has shown us maturity at every point through this process," Tomlin said. "He's older than most rookies, and that was obviously discussed leading up to the draft process. The things we valued in him from a draft perspective -- fluid and quick decision making, pro-like anticipation and things of that nature -- have proven to be true. That's why we took him when we were given the opportunity to do so. Since we acquired him, he's done nothing but fortify that thought process."
You may or may not remember, but here on DK Pittsburgh Sports, we had a daily tracker to break down what the quarterbacks were doing every day during the early stages of training camp. We weren't tracking stats because stats during camp mean absolutely nothing. Instead, we'd watch for how comfortable each quarterback was with making different types of throws, how accurate they were on those throws, how they'd look in the pocket, along with a multitude of other things.
After all, this was the first time in nearly two decades there'd be someone else holding the reins of the offense other than Roethlisberger.
At the start of camp, Pickett was far and away the third quarterback. Not only on the depth chart, but in terms of performance during reps. There were some times where it was very obvious two guys had played in the NFL while one guy hadn't. Timing was off on certain throws. Pickett too often tried to escape the pocket. And when he did stay in, there were too many cases of happy feet.
However, even before the first preseason game, Pickett really began to turn a corner. The conversations that took place around camp stopped revolving around Mason Rudolph's consistency or Trubisky's on-again, off-again throws. No longer were we seeing a rookie sitting at a distant third. Pickett was getting more and more comfortable, and his play on the field showed.
More importantly, his play in stadiums reflected that growth. Remember the comeback against the Seahawks?
How about this dime to Pat Freiermuth the next week in Jacksonville?
The potential was certainly evident. But, he was doing it against second- and third-stringers and guys who were destined to be cut before teams trimmed down to 53-man rosters.
Yet, the growth continued. When Tomlin called his number to "spark" a dying offense in Week 4, Pickett brought a whole heck of a lot more than energy. He flashed a lot of the same stuff we had already seen. Only this time, they came in games that mattered:
But, the energy and edge he brings can't be understated either.
"He's got swag. He's got natural leadership qualities," Dan Moore told reporters Friday. "I like the kid. He's competitive. He's not afraid of anything, he's tough. I love him."
"Yeah, he has some swag to him. He has some swag to him for sure," Jaylen Warren told our Corey Crisan. "You get in the huddle and you can enter the huddle all droopy and like, 'Ah, I don't want to do this,' but once you get out of the huddle you're fired up, like, you don't know what he said -- I mean players always say it -- but from the outside looking in you're like, 'Oh, you look ready to go. Wonder what happened in that huddle.' But he's vocal. He's going to let you know what to do, how to do it, when to do it."
"He's hungry. He plays with a swag. A lot of guys respect him," Johnson told me when I asked what sets him apart from any other quarterback he's played with. "Just the way he handles himself and carries himself."
"Kenny’s a competitive guy. He’s a great leader. He enjoys it. He loves to compete. He’s a student of the game," Matt Canada said. "I don’t know if that’s unique; that’s just who Kenny is. You guys have all been here watching him. All the things that he’s been advertised as are what he is."
Growth is one thing, and Pickett is off to a good start with what he's done on the football field. Trubisky led the offense to four touchdowns in 41 drives. Pickett led the Steelers to two touchdowns in only five drives. Pickett also averaged 9.2 yards per attempt. For context, Jaylen Hurts leads the NFL this season with 9.1 YPA.
But, that edge, that confidence, that swagger -- whatever adjective best suits you -- has ignited a fire in the Steelers locker room. And it couldn't come at a better time with the Steelers as two-touchdown underdogs against the Bills this weekend. But, that's not deterring Pickett's focus to turn the ship around from a 1-3 start to the season.
"I would say it's the attitude in which you go about it," Pickett said regarding playing as 14-point underdogs. "You guys and everyone else thinks we're underdogs. We don't."
Now is when we start getting answers to important questions, with the most crucial being ... Is this the guy? First impressions of Pickett are as promising as can be. The Pickett era truly begins Sunday, and the Steelers need it to vastly exceed the previous one.
THE ESSENTIALS
• Who: Steelers at Bills (-14)
• What: Week 5, regular season
• When: Sunday, 1:02 p.m.
• Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, N.Y.
• Weather: 57°, 19% chance rain, 18-mph wind
• Lots open: 9 a.m.
• Gates open: 11 a.m.
• TV: CBS (national)
• Radio: 102.5 WDVE, ESPN Pittsburgh
• Streaming: Steelers Nation Radio
• Satellite: Sirius XM 385, online 826
• Boxscore: DKPS
• Team media guides: Steelers | Bills
• Official game notes: Steelers | Bills
THE INJURY REPORT
• Steelers: CB Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) and S Terrell Edmunds (concussion) are out. Edmunds was originally questionable after Friday's practice, but was ruled out Saturday afternoon. CB Cam Sutton (groin/hamstring) is questionable, but told reporters Friday he's ready to go. S Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee), CB Levi Wallace (foot), DL Chris Wormley (ankle), DL Cam Heyward (ankle/elbow), WR Diontae Johnson (hip) and C Mason Cole (foot) were limited in some capacity this week, but do not have any injury designation and are cleared to play.
The Steelers announced Saturday that they signed LB Ryan Anderson to their 53-man roster and elevated CB Josh Jackson and S Elijah Riley from the practice squad to the Active/Inactive roster and released LB David Anenih.
• Bills: S Jordan Poyer (ribs), TE Dawson Knox (foot/hamstring), WR Jake Kumerow (ankle), WR Jamison Crowder (ankle) and CB Christian Benford (hand) are out. LB Tremaine Edmunds (hamstring), WR Isaiah McKenzie (concussion), DT Ed Oliver (ankle) and DT Jordan Phillips (hamstring) are questionable. Edmunds did not practice at all this week. WR Gabe Davis (ankle), CB Cam Lewis (forearm/knee), C Mitch Morse (elbow), OL Justin Murray (foot), DT DaQuan Jones (veteran rest), LB Von Miller (veteran rest), G Rodger Saffold (veteran rest) and WR Stefon Diggs (veteran rest) do not have an injury designation on Friday's report.
THE KEY VARIABLE
The Bills are ravaged with injuries. If there's ever one great equalizer in sports, albeit an unfortunate one, it's injuries.
Perhaps the most significant name in the long list of injuries above is Jordan Poyer. The star safety currently leads the NFL with four interceptions. His absence on the back end will be very impactful on the Buffalo defense, especially since their other star safety Micah Hyde is out for the season with a neck injury.
Poyer's missed one other game this season, and it's no coincidence that game was the Bills' only loss of the season when they were defeated by the Dolphins. In the place of Hyde and Poyer were JaQuan Johnson and Damar Hamlin, and that'll be the same duo the Steelers face. They were also hurt on a critical play late in the game when Tua Tagovailoa connected deep with Jaylen Waddle on the drive that led to the game-winning touchdown.
The Steelers could possibly take advantage of the Bills' weakened secondary and attack downfield with targets such as Pat Freiermuth and George Pickens -- two target that Pickett formed a connection with against the Jets.
Fun fact: Hamlin and Pickett, as well as Bills cornerback Dane Jackson, were teammates at Pitt, and the three of them were on the Panthers team that upset the No. 2 Miami Hurricanes in 2017, ending their perfect season. Not only was that Pickett's first start at Pitt, funnily enough, Hamlin's current partner at safety, Johnson, started for Miami during that game.
"I give him a hard time about that win all the time," Hamlin told the Democrat & Chronicle. "(Pickett) won the game, his first start and they were ranked No. 2 in the nation."
THE HISTORY LESSON
The Steelers lead the all-time series with the Bills, 17-11. The two teams have only met in the postseason three times, and the Steelers emerged victorious in two of those games.
The first came during the Divisional playoff in 1974. The Steelers won, 32-14, and it was the first victory in the postseason run that ended with Pittsburgh capturing their first Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl IX.
The next matchup came during the Bills' run of four straight Super Bowl appearances in the early 1990s. In their first season under Bill Cowher, the 1992 Steelers emerged with their best season since their fourth Super Bowl season in 1979, going 11-5 and winning the AFC Central division. The Steelers hosted Jim Kelly and the reigning two-time AFC champion Bills. The upstart Steelers were overmatched as they were pummeled by the Bills, 24-3.
The rubber match came three seasons later. The Steelers were dead set on putting the 1994 AFC championship game debacle against the Chargers behind them, starting with winning their third division title in four years. Kelly and the Bills were the first team in their way, and they were looking to bounce back after their 'Drive For Five' ended with a disappointing 7-9 season. After the Bills eliminated Dan Marino and the Dolphins in the Wildcard, the Bills traveled to Three Rivers Stadium for yet another matchup in the Divisional playoff.
Much like they will be this Sunday, the Bills were missing a key player on defense. Hall of Fame defensive end Bruce Smith missed the game with a flu that included a 103-degree fever, which he said was worse than any knee injury he ever had. In addition to Smith's absence, Kelly and Thurman Thomas both missed time during the game due to injuries, but both were able to return.
The Steelers jumped out to a 20-0 lead midway through the second quarter. Despite a valiant comeback by the Bills to pull within five early in the fourth quarter, Pittsburgh pulled away courtesy of two rushing touchdowns by Bam Morris. The Steelers won, 40-21, and exorcised their demons from the Chargers game the following week with a 20-16 victory over the Colts in the AFC Championship game.
THE MAIN MATCHUP
It's pretty simple: Limit Josh Allen's impact on the game.
You might want to hear "take away" Allen, but there's no neutralizing a player of his caliber. Allen is one of the premier quarterbacks in the NFL, and everything about the Bills' potent offense runs through him. The best the Steelers can do is limit his ability to hurt them with big plays, especially on key downs. Unfortunately for the Steelers, he has the ability to make those plays in multiple ways.
"He’s one of those unique quarterbacks that has the ability to run, to throw, to extend plays," Teryl Austin said Thursday. "I think the biggest thing you do is you do the best you can to keep them in the pocket, throwing from the well, see if you can get them into holding the ball a little too long and get your rush there. But there’s going to be some plays where he escapes and he gets out, and we’ve just got to make sure when those plays happen, they don’t become catastrophic for us."
That means the Steelers' pass rush has to step up this week. Of all the areas the Bills are banged up, they're relatively healthy on the offensive line. Getting to Allen will not be an easy task.
Minimizing Allen's ability to extend plays could swing some momentum in the Steelers' favor. But, they also have to find a way to take away some of his targets in the passing game. As you read in the injury report, the Bills are hit hard with injuries at receiver and tight end. However, Stefon Diggs can hurt any opposing defense anywhere in the field, and Devin Singletary is becoming a high-volume target out of the backfield with 17 catches already. Allen's legs are lethal, but he also gets the ball out pretty quick at an average of 2.7 seconds, the 11th-highest in the NFL.
10 DATA POINTS
• The Steelers are 14-point underdogs since the AFL/NFL merger in 1970. The closest the Steelers have been to being this big of underdogs was Super Bowl XXX when the Cowboys were favored by 13.5 points. Pittsburgh lost by 10. Needless to say, a win in Buffalo would be the biggest upset in franchise history.
• When Pickett threw the ball in 2.5 seconds or less, he went 8 for 8 with 79 yards and four first downs. When he took more than three seconds to throw, he was 2 for 5 with three interceptions. Now, two of those interceptions are hardly pinned against him. However, it will be interesting to see if these numbers play out similarly against Buffalo.
• The Steelers produced 5.7 yards per play when Pickett was at quarterback last week, compared to 4.1 under Trubisky.
• Pickett became the first quarterback in NFL history to rush for two touchdowns in their NFL debut. He also became the first rookie quarterback in franchise history to rush for multiple touchdowns in a single game.
• Pickens caught six passes for 102 yards against the Jets. In doing so, he became the sixth player and fifth wideout in Steelers history that registered a 100-yard receiving performance prior to Week 5 of his rookie season.
• Buffalo's defense has already taken the ball away nine times through four games. Poyer leads the NFL with four interceptions, but he will miss this week's game due to a rib injury.
• The Bills defense has been on the field for 20 second-half drives. It has given up points on only one of them.
• Buffalo's defense is sacking opposing quarterbacks on 10.2 percent of their passing attempts (second in the NFL), despite blitzing just 8.8 percent of the time -- the lowest percentage in football.
• Allen's 1,227 passing yards and 183 rushing yards accounts for 85.5 percent of the Bills' overall production on offense. Allen has accounted for every one of Buffalo's touchdowns via the air or ground.
• The Bills have outscored their opponents, 44-0, in the third quarter this season.
THE FANTASY CORNER
There's no easy way to say this, but I bombed hard last week. Meanwhile, I won in both of my leagues. Nevertheless, I'm determined to bounce back, and I'm taking a few risks to do so. Here's my lineup for Week 5 (with a $50,000 salary cap on DraftKings).
• QB: Carson Wentz, Commanders ($5,700)
• RB1: James Robinson, Jaguars ($6,300)
• RB2: Devin Singletary, Bills ($6,100)
• WR1: Stephon Diggs, Bills ($8,400)
• WR2: Christian Kirk, Jaguars ($6,600)
• WR3: George Pickens, Steelers ($4,300)
• TE: Pat Freiermuth, Steelers ($4,100)
• FLEX: Corey Davis, Jets ($5,100)
• DEF/ST: Jaguars ($3,400)
I expect Wentz to bounce back as he is facing a more manageable Titans pass rush this week. Robinson has been consistent all season, and he's clearly the lead back in Jacksonville. I'm spending top dollar on Diggs torching the Steelers' secondary. Even if Witherspoon is the only absent member of the secondary, it could be a long day for them. I expect the Steelers to be eventually forced to be one-dimensional. Pickett established connections with Pickens and Freiermuth, so I'm trying to get my bang for my buck there. Even with the switch to Zach Wilson last week, Davis remained a formidable fantasy producer last week. I like the value there.
