A silver lining following Pitt's defeat to Tennessee in Week 2 was that all of their goals were still in front of them. The defending ACC champions were still unblemished in conference play and had reasons for optimism after losing to a formidable SEC team with its starting quarterback leaving after the first half and a banged-up second-string quarterback playing throughout the second half.
After Pitt's stunning 26-21 loss to Georgia Tech on Saturday, that silver lining is stained. The Panthers are 0-for in conference play and sustained that defeat to the team which is still likely to finish in last place in the division once everything is said and done.
The Panthers were one of three Coastal Division teams to begin conference play this week, along with Duke and North Carolina -- both of which won their ACC debuts. Here is a full look at the ACC standings through Week 5:
TheACC.com
ACC Atlantic standings through Week 5. Records within the ACC are on the left, and overall records are on the right.
TheACC.com
ACC Coastal standings through Week 5. Records within the ACC are on the left, and overall records are on the right.
The Atlantic is perceived (correctly) as the stronger of the two divisions, and in this final year of the ACC's divisional format, that means which ever team wins the division title will in all likelihood be favored to win the ACC Championship Game this year. As for the Coastal champion, they probably won't have as great of a chance at making it to the championship game next year.
Miami was the sexy preseason pick to win the Coastal, with Pitt trailing in second. As shown above, Miami hasn't kicked off ACC play yet; they will do so on Saturday in a home clash with North Carolina.
Perhaps that game became that much more meaningful for Pitt, following its loss to Georgia Tech, along with the rest of the remaining slates around the ACC not involving Pitt.
I would separate the true contenders in the Coastal as Pitt, Miami, and North Carolina, in no particular order, and the projection of fall-off for Duke can be validated by looking at its schedule: at Georgia Tech, North Carolina, at Miami, at Boston College, Virginia Tech, at Pitt, and Wake Forest.
I'd think the Blue Devils would be projected to lose to North Carolina, Miami, Pitt, and Wake Forest, unless this 4-1 start is for real and the Blue Devils emerge as a legit threat in the Coastal.
North Carolina continues with: at Miami, at Duke, Pitt, at Virginia, at Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and NC State. The back-to-back road games at Miami and at Pitt are wild-cards and could set the tone for the rest of the Coastal.
North Carolina could just as easily win or lose both games, given the tumultuous states of Miami -- after they lost to Middle Tennessee State two weeks ago -- and considering where Pitt is in terms of sustaining its worst loss in the Pat Narduzzi era against the Yellow Jackets on Saturday.
The Tar Heels' games at Wake Forest and NC State later in the season are not gimmes, so there is potential for a UNC loss(es) in there.
As for Miami, they move along with: North Carolina, at Virginia Tech, Duke, at Virginia, Florida State, at Georgia Tech, at Clemson, and Pitt.
I see possible losses to North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, and Pitt.
The Panthers' remaining ACC opponents are as follows: Virginia Tech, at Louisville, at North Carolina, Syracuse, at Virginia, Duke, and at Miami.
Projecting the Panthers to win out is hard to do, especially given the list of problems it is currently experiencing, namely on the offensive side of the ball which failed to gain any significant rhythm over the last two weeks and has many unanswered questions in its passing game.
But, Pitt should beat Virginia Tech and Louisville, and they should be favored to beat Virginia and Duke, which leaves North Carolina, Syracuse, and Miami as the toss-ups as of now.
It might serve as a positive that Pitt won't see either of them until they travel to Chapel Hill to face North Carolina on Oct. 29 -- after a bye week -- and won't see Syracuse and Miami until November.
It also serves as a tremendous benefit that the Panthers won't see Clemson, NC State, or Wake Forest in the regular season.
So, while the silver lining was stained, it is necessarily tarnished? There are still clear avenues for Pitt to get into the ACC Championship Game and serve itself a proper chance at a title defense, but the loss to Georgia Tech made those avenues more difficult to travel without some help from the rest of the conference.
Pitt is now projected to finish 7-5, according to the ESPN Football Power Index. The FPI Now has the Panthers rated as the 43rd best team in college football and the eighth-best team in the ACC behind Clemson (fifth overall), NC State (25th), Florida State (27th), Miami (33rd), Wake Forest (34th), Syracuse (35th), and North Carolina (43rd).
That is an analytic I disagree with. I still view Pitt behind a tier of Clemson and NC State, and Wake Forest, and I would slot them right along with Syracuse and Florida State in that next tier. Syracuse has a bye week followed by games against NC State and Clemson, which could either give them a massive amount of momentum or completely derail its 5-0 start before matchups against Notre Dame and at Pitt.
What say you about Pitt's chances to return to the ACC Championship game? Overall, I feel there is still some optimism to get back, but a lot of work has to be done. The loss to Georgia Tech in all likelihood is more of a blip than a developing trend, and there is still the overarching thought that the Panthers are simply more talented than its next two opponents and can afford itself get-right opportunities against the Hokies and the Cardinals.
