UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. -- Flash back to Auburn three weeks ago, early in the game. The Tigers twice drove inside Penn State's 10-yard line, only to be stuffed and forced to settle for field goals.
Those two defensive stands pretty much decided the game, because they set the tone that, no matter how much the Tigers might move the ball, they were going to have a really tough time getting into the end zone against the Nittany Lions' defense.
You may be surprised to learn that Penn State ranks just 64th in the nation in total defense this season, giving up 367 yards per game. Those are pretty pedestrian numbers, and the overall rank is surprising because it just seems like the Lions have been really good on defense under first-year coordinator Manny Diaz.
In actuality, the defense may not rank all that highly in some statistical categories, but as James Franklin pointed out this week, there's one thing that matters most.
This is, from my view, the most insightful thing Franklin has said so far this season:
"The thing that I think we're doing a really good job of, which is probably the most important stat, is not giving up explosive plays for touchdowns. Those are the ones that kill you, because if you're not giving up explosive plays for touchdowns and you're playing good red zone defense, then once again you have a chance to be pretty good in the stat that matters most, which is scoring defense."
Bingo.
And this entire discussion is all really important for this week's opponent in particular, as Penn State gets set to host Northwestern on Saturday at Beaver Stadium.
My biggest concern with Diaz's ultra-aggressive style of defense was that it would allow opponents to cash in from time to time with some long touchdowns. That is what happened a good bit to Diaz when he was at Miami, and it's why I asked him about that aspect in particular both when he got the job and during preseason camp.
Diaz's answer was outstanding. He said certain parts of the defense can be really aggressive on a given play, while other players can be less so, thereby kind of balancing out the risk-reward component. For instance, the front seven can send a lot of pressure, while also allowing for members of the secondary to have help down the field instead of everybody just being on an island.
Penn State has done an excellent job of forcing teams to have to drive the field, instead of giving up big chunk plays for scores. And if you look at the overall yardage allowed up above, it points out that teams have indeed been able to get themselves into scoring position.
But that's where the Lions' outstanding job in the red zone has come into play, led by the team's fantastic and deep group of defensive backs.
Teams love to run the ball in the red zone, and Penn State is tough against the run. That forces teams to have to throw the ball, and having very talented players coupled with the way Diaz likes to use them aggressively, well, it causes a lot of problems for offenses.
The teams Penn State has played so far don't have great offensive talent, save for Purdue with a quality QB in Aidan O'Connell and outstanding receiver in Charlie Jones.
Given the talent disparity, it hasn't mattered much that Auburn and Central Michigan were able to move the ball at times and threaten the Penn State defense. Because when push came to shove, the Lions have gotten the job done in the red zone.
"We always (take pride in) they're not going to score. We just keep telling ourselves, telling each other, 'They're not gonna score. And that's what happened," defensive end Adisa Isaac said of the big red zone stops after the Auburn game. "We just held them to a field goal twice, and it was big for us, especially the way the game went. Those two early scores might have shifted the game, so those are big stops for us."
Penn State has forced four turnovers in each of the past two games, and nine for the season. The Lions have only turned the ball over once, so they are +8 in turnover margin, which ranks fourth in the country.
Couple that with their 41 pass breakups, which leads the nation by 16, and the tough red zone defense, and it's easy to see why teams have had a tough time scoring on the Lions. They've allowed 10, 12 and 14 points in their last three games, after Purdue's offense scored 24 points in the opener (with another TD on a pick-6 in Penn State's 35-31 win).
Northwestern has struggled scoring points against weak competition lately, with 23 against Duke, 24 against FCS Southern Illinois and 14 against Miami, Ohio.
One would think the Wildcats will have a tough time scoring against Penn State.
That doesn't mean, however, Northwestern won't be able to move the ball. In fact, do not be at all surprised if the Wildcats sustain a good number of drives and give themselves scoring opportunities.
Again, Penn State is giving up 367 yards per game. Northwestern QB Ryan Hilinski is averaging 305 yards passing, and Evan Hull is averaging 93 yards rushing per game. Pat Fitzgerald's teams have generally found ways to move the ball against Penn State over the years, mixing things up with the short passing game and balance running the ball.
But even if the Wildcats do move the ball a good bit, it's just hard to see them getting into the end zone many times. Their passing game isn't so dynamic, and the receivers aren't so good that you'd think they can win a lot of matchups against Penn State's DBs in the red zone.
And as long as Penn Stat doesn't give up long chunk plays for scores, well, there's every reason to believe the defense can keep the Wildcats from putting up many points.
THE ESSENTIALS
• Who: No. 11 Penn State (4-0) vs. Northwestern (1-3)
• When: 3:30 p.m., Saturday
• Where: Beaver Stadium (106,572)
• Weather: Cloudy, 55°, 55% rain, 10 mph wind
• TV: ESPN
• Radio: Penn State Sports Radio Network
• Satellite: Sirius XM 84, online 957
• Media notes: Penn State | Northwestern
TWO REASONS
Two reasons Penn State will win:
1. The Lions' defense is far superior to the Northwestern offense, and as noted above, Penn State is especially tough in the red zone. It's just hard to see the Wildcats being able to score enough to keep this very close.
2. Penn State didn't play all that well last week, and still won by 19 points over Central Michigan. The lackadaisical game surely sent a message to everyone in the program to bring their A game every week, so we should see something closer to that against the Wildcats.
Two reasons Northwestern could win:
1. The Wildcats' defense isn't bad, and might be able to muddy things up enough to keep Penn State's offense from running away with it. The only way Northwestern stays close is if this is a low-scoring affair, so look for Fitzgerald to try and keep his offense on the field with long drives to control time of possession.
2. As I wrote earlier in the week, I cannot believe Northwestern is so bad to be nearly a four-touchdown underdog. I gotta believe the Wildcats have been embarrassed and will come into this game with a lot of pride looking to show they can compete at a higher level.
FIVE KEYS
My five keys for Penn State:
1. Play a consistent game. Sure, last week was a comfortable win, but no one came out of that game thinking Penn State is an outstanding team. More like a good team that has lulls and lets a mediocre opponent hang around too long. This is not a good Northwestern team, but the Lions need to be ready for some pushback, and they'll need to play four consistent quarters in order to win by anywhere near as big of a margin as the line might suggest.
2. Sean Clifford needs to look the part. Does anyone believe he can take the team into the Big House and win in two weeks? Probably not after he was inconsistent against a directional Michigan last week. Clifford needs to have a good game throwing the ball -- again, for all four quarters -- but he's done that so rarely in his career that it's hard to believe he's capable of that. If he can do it here, maybe it gets him on a roll going into the very difficult part of the schedule.
3. Let's see who establishes himself better in the running game today -- Nicholas Singleton or Kaytron Allen. Northwestern is probably going to do a lot of what Central Michigan did, which was to sell out against the run and force Clifford to do everything. We all should be very curious to see who will be the better tailback against Big Ten defenses.
4. Get off to a good start. The last thing the Lions need is for Northwestern to come out and score early and build confidence. When you're going up against a bad and fragile team, you gotta jump on them early and make them feel like they don't have much of a chance.
5. Make some field goals. Maybe it will still be struggling Jake Pinegar, or maybe Sander Sahaydak will get a chance. Whoever it is, he needs to kick some balls through the uprights and gain some confidence. Because the Lions aren't going to beat the likes of Michigan, Minnesota and Ohio State with a suspect kicking game.
PREDICTION
Penn State 34, Northwestern 15. If you see what I did here, I went with a 19-point margin, same as last week's win over Central Michigan (33-14). I have to believe there's never been a team in football history get back-to-back 19-point wins.
HOW TO BET THE GAME
Penn State is favored by 25 as of Friday afternoon. Over/under is 51.
Northwestern's offense is bad and probably won't score many -- if any -- touchdowns. But the Wildcats' defense isn't all that bad, which leads me to believe they can at least keep the Lions in check for much of the day.
I would say buy the number up to +28 for -155. A $100 bet would return $65, and you'd be in the bet all day pretty much no matter what.
