CRANBERRY, Pa. -- For as long as P.O Joseph's name has swirled as a potential option on the Penguins' blue line, the defender who arrived as half the return for Phil Kessel in 2019 has appeared in just 20 NHL games as he enters his age 23 season.
Re-signed in July to a two-year contract with a cap hit of $825,000, Joseph is one of nine NHL-capable defensemen the team currently employs. Originally, his one-way contract suggested there were plans for him to graduate full-time but, without any imminent trades, he's anything but a lock to start this season in the NHL due to the salary cap situation.
The entirety of his cap hit can be buried if he is in the AHL, but he would have to pass through waivers to be sent down. Teams across the league will be trimming their rosters in preparation of opening night, and while players like Joseph frequently pass through waivers, it's not an entirely risk free endeavor to attempt and send him down.
Joseph's career has reached a chokepoint. He spent most of the 2021-22 season with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins in which he was their No. 1 defender for the majority of it. He picked up 10 goals and 23 assists in 61 regular-season games, then another goal and four assists in six playoff games. There isn't a whole lot to gain from him spending a fourth season in the AHL.
The former first-round pick of the Coyotes made his NHL debut with the Penguins in 2020-21, appearing in 16 games, then another four last season. Across those 20 games he's recorded a goal and four assists, and during his 316 minutes at 5-on-5 the Penguins have been outscored, 12-11, and controlled 50.3% of the expected goals, per Evolving-Hockey.
Here's a look at his game-by-game on-ice expected goals share at 5-on-5 during his brief body of NHL work:
Before jumping in, a player's on-ice expected goals share should not be used as -- and isn't -- an all-encompassing tool to rate or gauge individual performance. Rather, it provides insight into how a team performs overall when an individual is on the ice. There's plenty of nuance we could go over, but, generally, good players are on the ice for a relatively greater share of goals and quality chances than lesser players.
To boot, it's just the raw on-ice data, so we've yet to adjust for quality of competition or quality of teammates, so a depth forward with a 58% expected goals share isn't exactly a better player than a forward on the first line with a 53% expected goals share.
As always, context is key.
In eight of Joseph's first 12 NHL games, the Penguins controlled fewer than 50% of the expected goals when he was on the ice at 5-on-5, and in six of those games they checked in below 40%.
But in his next eight games, including the four he played last season, the Penguins were above 50% six times, five of which they reached 60% or higher.
Again, those numbers might not be entirely indicative of Joseph's individual performance on each given night, but it seems clear the more experience he got, the more the Penguins felt his impact when he was on the ice.
It takes everyone some time to adjust to the pace and physicality at the highest level. That's even more understandable for Joseph, who currently weighs 185 pounds and has put on some weight each summer.
For a while, Joseph's weight and whether or not he'd be able to hold up against hefty competition were the biggest concerns surrounding his game. He could still benefit from putting on more weight, but last season Joseph displayed the ability to effectively use physicality -- even if he's not throwing constant thundering hits -- and was noticeably stronger on his skates.
Here he is in an NHL game from last season taking the body to separate the puck carrier from the puck while gaining inside positioning:
With the Blackhawks attempting to exit their zone, Joseph smartly decided to pinch on the puck carrier at an angle instead of head-on. Applying pressure at such an angle serves two purposes:
1. If Joseph interrupts the carrier or causes a turnover, his route would allow him to keep his momentum going forward either with the puck or to sustain pressure.
2. If Joseph fails to disrupt the carrier, like what happened above, he'd be able to recover and immediately get on the backcheck with a looping cut away and back toward the direction he just came from.
Even though he didn't manage to knock the puck away -- which he typically does -- his route was executed perfectly as he raced back and aggressively threw himself into the carrier just inside the Penguins' blue line, affording himself the extra step to jump on the puck and secure possession.
Now, what happens next is both a bit of a positive and negative.
On the positive side, it's great to see the amount of ice Joseph can cover with his long legs once he gets going. It's not hard to see how that could come in handy when skating the puck out of the zone.
On the negative side, it's another example of Joseph relinquishing possession in favor of a chip off the boards or glass out into the neutral zone that produces a 50/50 puck. In this specific instance, his options were extremely limited, but part of that is due to the stiffness in his upper-body when he has the puck. He struggles to separate movements between his upper and lower half, which makes him far less deceptive and much easier to contain.
After securing the puck on that play, make note of how Joseph's shoulders seem to be almost completely in line with his hips, knees and toe caps as he skates. Most of the time, you'd think telegraphing your next move mostly has to do with your head and where you're looking, but at this level, your body positioning can give away just as much.
This knock is what I believe will prevent Joseph from ever becoming a hefty point-producer or significant driver of quality offense, but that doesn't mean he can't have a roughly league-average offensive impact in a third-pairing role. Really, he's ready for that role now, the Penguins just don't have an apparent spot for him.
Another reason I'm not very bullish on how his offensive impact projects is that Joseph tends to defer the puck after he makes it past center-ice, even if he has the opportunity to attack quality real estate:
In a game against the Senators last season, Joseph received the puck in stride right up the middle and promptly flung a suboptimal pass wide at the first sign of pressure instead of threatening toward the open ice on his way to entering the zone.
Joseph was already crossing over from right to left, right at the checker in his vicinity. A simple crossover back the other way would have gotten him around the flat-footed checker and put him into a giant pocket of ice inside of the Senators' coverage for a zone entry with possession.
Yeah, you could argue that he didn't want to risk an offside call with a Penguins forward racing to tag up, but that's the kind of opportunity you take the risk for. It would serve Joseph well to be more assertive in those situations.
On other occasions, I've noticed Joseph struggles to improve the condition of less-than-ideal pucks quick enough to make consistent high percentage plays:
It might seem like nothing, but the little hiccup that prevented him from grabbing the puck off the wall in a swift motion and maintaining all of his momentum was the difference between rimming the puck along the boards and skating the puck further up ice himself.
Not to compare the two, but one of Sidney Crosby's greatest traits is his ability to improve the condition of the puck, whether it be the way he manipulates his skates or how he contorts his body to shield or propel the puck. Joseph needs to turn more bad pucks into good pucks for his game to take the next step.
After watching every shift from six of his NHL games and another three AHL games, I left the session with the feeling that more of his puck touches need to lead to something of substance.
I'm not saying they're carbon copies of each other, because they aren't, but Joseph somewhat reminds me of Olli Maatta, who, believe it or not, will skate for his fourth NHL team this season in Detroit. Both of them are 6-foot-2, and neither are the most gifted skater. Both heavily rely on C-cut strides to time up puck carriers just inside their own blue line as they swipe the puck away, and both are susceptible to getting beat or put in a compromised position when attackers get their feet moving laterally off the rush.
Joseph's a bit quicker and is able to recover better than Maatta can, but some similarities are there.
The thing about Joseph is that he isn't going to be a drag on the rest of his team when he's out there, and because of that, I'd put his floor much higher than someone like recently acquired Ty Smith, who has greater offensive potential, but won't be able to properly unleash it without cleaning up other areas of his game.
The question is, how much is Joseph going to move the needle? Obviously, if the Penguins believe the answer to be significantly, they'll find him a spot on the team, but they likely would've done so already.
After uncovering some of the items we discussed, it makes more sense as to why there are still so many defensemen around even though Joseph has been waiting in the balance.
Like I said earlier, I'm confident Joseph can become -- and probably is right now -- an adequate third-pairing defender, it's just that his lower ceiling is more apparent and, perhaps, the Penguins prefer the traits that Chad Ruhwedel, Mark Friedman and Jan Rutta bring to the third pairing versus Joseph.
If that's the case, Ron Hextall should heavily consider moving Joseph for some draft capital, if he's able. I won't sit here and ignore the possibility that he tried and nothing came of it, but there's nothing left for Joseph in the AHL, and it almost feels like a disservice not to give him the chance to establish himself with a team that gives him the opportunity.
I know, I know, the Penguins' injury curse will come knocking and all capable depth will be needed. But they're still in good shape if some six-man combination of the other eight defenders they employ are healthy and in the lineup.
It seems unlikely that Joseph ever blossoms into a legit second-pairing defender like many hoped, but he's definitely done enough to earn a chance as a full-time NHLer. If the Penguins can't or don't want to give him that opportunity, it might be best for both parties if the Penguins find a trade.
Then again, that might be a tough task to pull off, especially with the number of comparable players who will likely be available on the waiver wire in the coming weeks.
