How do you replace T.J. Watt?
"You can't replace T.J.," Larry Ogunjobi told me Friday at the UPMC Rooney Sports Complex.
Nope, you sure can't. Even though he just started only his sixth season and is only 27 years old, Watt has already emerged as one of the most dominant defensive players in Steelers history. He has 73 career sacks, which is only 7.5 behind James Harrison's franchise record of 80. Add in five career interceptions, 22 forced fumbles and 34 passes defended, and you have as complete of a linebacker the Steelers have ever had.
No, I don't say that lightly. I'm aware of the legends that precede him. He's just that good. And any defense that has a player of that caliber go down with an injury -- to Ogunjobi's point -- is not the same without him.
But, this is the hand the Steelers have been dealt. While they're fortunate that Watt's injury won't sideline him for the season, the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year will surely miss the next four games since the Steelers placed him on the injured/reserve list Thursday. Even after he's eligible to return, it could be a few more weeks before he actually takes the field.
"Obviously, you don't want to play without a guy like that, but guys gotta step up," Cam Heyward said this week. "We're not reinventing the wheel. We're not going out there saying that we have to change up our entire scheme and stuff, but we just gotta make sure we do our jobs."
To make matters worse, the upcoming schedule during Watt's absence isn't easy, and the Patriots are the next team on it.
"I think if you’re playing the New England team, they will always have a high floor," Mike Tomlin said Tuesday. "They won’t beat themselves, they won’t be highly penalized, they will play the field-positioning game, they’ll work to win the weighty moments, they’ll fight for every blade of grass and goal-line and short-yardage and things of that nature. They’ll do things to dress up their high-volume stuff on offense and defense in an effort to search for a winning edge from a game-planning perspective."
Bill Belichick is notorious for taking away a team's best player, or exploiting a key weakness. While the Steelers addressed the depth behind Watt and Alex Highsmith when they acquired Malik Reed from the Broncos, the drop off speaks for itself. It doesn't take a genius to predict Belichick will do everything he can to take advantage of a defense that's missing their cornerstone player.
Reed will fill in Watt's spot, and though he's not Watt, the rest of the defense has faith in Reed's ability to make plays.
"Malik can rush the passer. He's a savvy vet. He's had a lot of success in Denver," Heyward said of Reed. "We believe in him. I don't think anyone in the organization wouldn't trust otherwise. It just comes down to how quickly he can pick up the playbook and feel comfortable with it."
But, instead of giving Reed the impossible task of filling a Watt-like quota in production, the defense can collectively be better up front.
"The standard is the standard," Chris Wormley told me. "People in Pittsburgh know that's one of Mike T's favorite sayings. The guys that are behind T.J. are going to have to step up. Everyone's going to have to step up their game. We're going to lean on our 'A' players to make plays."
It wasn't exactly rocket science that Wormley explained to me. Really, what he said is the only way to play without Watt. Alex Highsmith, who's coming off a three-sack game, will have to be a force on Mac Jones' blindside. Heyward will have to be a wrecking ball on the defensive line. And the Steelers might need Minkah Fitzpatrick to pull off another Cincinnati-esque performance.
But, the Steelers' depth up front could play a major factor here as well. Pittsburgh rotated through all of their defensive linemen and linebackers throughout the game last week, and there wasn't much drop off in production. Some of these players, such as DeMarvin Leal, are versatile and willing to slide into different roles to help compensate for Watt's absence in the aggregate.
What's more, the Steelers played with two down linemen almost exclusively in Cincinnati. While they likely won't do that against the Patriots -- who are more dedicated to running the ball -- the more this defense can do with only two down linemen, the better for the other nine guys on the field.
However, one of the best ways to play defense is to sustain drives on offense. It's the same mentality hockey fans may be familiar with: The other team can't score if they don't have the puck.
The Steelers were vastly out-possessed last week, even with the defense providing five takeaways and putting six points on the board themselves. Everyone on the offensive side knows last week's performance won't cut it.
"We’re looking to get better. We won the game, but there’s a lot we can improve on, specifically third down and just overall execution," Mitch Trubisky said this week. "I liked the calls that we were getting, we’ve just got to go out and execute them more to stay on the field and keep our defense off the field. So, we’re looking to be better on third down this week."
The offense wasn't highly penalized and they didn't turn the ball over. Those are always positive things. However, getting Najee Harris going on the ground or connecting on some passes down the field can do wonders for creating more opportunities for extending drives and, most important, putting points on the board.
It goes without saying that the loss of Watt is significant, perhaps even devastating. Make no mistake, there will be times where his absence is down right painful. When he missed games or was impacted by injury, the Steelers were 0-4-1 last season.
But, his absence is not insurmountable. At least, Tomlin won't let his team think that way.
THE ESSENTIALS
• Who: Steelers (1-0) vs. Patriots (0-1)
• When: Sunday, 1:02 p.m.
• Where: Acrisure Stadium
• Weather at kick: 83°, 6% chance rain, 8-mph wind
• TV: KDKA-TV, CBS (national)
• Radio: 102.5 WDVE, ESPN Pittsburgh
• Streaming: Steelers Nation Radio
• Satellite: Sirius XM 231, online 826
• Boxscore: DKPS
• Team media guides: Steelers | Patriots
• Official game notes: Steelers | Patriots
THE INJURY REPORT
Official through the Friday practices:
• Steelers: RB Najee Harris (foot), CB Levi Wallace (ankle), LB Robert Spillane (eye), C Mason Cole (ankle), DT Cam Heyward (non-injury/rest) were all full participants in Friday's practice and are expected to suit up Sunday.
Watt was placed on injured/reserve list Thursday morning. He'll miss at least four games, making Week 6 the earliest he can return.
• Patriots: S Joshuah Bledsoe (groin), T Trent Brown (ankle), LB Raekwon McMillan (thumb), S Adrian Phillips (ribs), RB Pierre Strong Jr. (shoulder), CB Shaun Wade (ankle) are all listed as questionable. QB Mac Jones (back), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (toe) were full participants in Friday's practice and are expected to play.
• The Steelers elevated LB Delontae Scott from the practice squad to the Active/Inactive roster on Saturday.
THE KEY VARIABLE
Running the football.
Jet sweeps with Chase Claypool should complement the running game, not be its main factor. Claypool was the Steelers' leading rusher last week. That can't happen again. Not when the offense really needs to sustain drives.
"We obviously have to run it more than we did," Matt Canada said this week. "We have to call more runs to be better at it. We’d like some of those two-yard gains to be four-yard gains. But as I mentioned, we got it to third-and-manageable, which is what we wanted to do, and then we didn’t have a high enough percentage there. You need to run it more and run it better. ... The bottom line is that we’ve got to have more opportunities."
Running the ball more often sounds good in theory, but the Patriots were stout against the run last week. And Belichick is smart enough to know if he can neutralize Harris and the running game, it limits the Steelers to rely on Trubisky and the passing game.
To go back to the aforementioned point, the Steelers need to possess the ball more in this game. That will help keep the defense fresh and limit New England's opportunities to exploit any drop off in Watt's absence. And, as it always has, a successful running game opens up the rest of the offense.
The offensive line was good in pass protection in Cincinnati. The only sack allowed was when Trubisky stepped out of bounds behind the line of scrimmage while trying to tuck it and run. However, the line knows how vital it is to make the offense two-dimensional.
"We've gotta get this running game going," Mason Cole said. "We've gotta trust it. We've gotta rely on it. It falls on us. When they call a run, we've gotta make it happen. We've gotta block people and get Najee loose."
THE HISTORY LESSON
Lots of moments to go back to in this series. But, this is a new chapter in Steelers/Patriots history. Sunday's game will be the first time these two teams are playing without either Tom Brady or Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback since Dec. 6, 1998.
The quarterbacks in that game? Kordell Stewart and Drew Bledsoe.
The Steelers entered the game as 4 1/2-point favorites over Pete Carroll's Patriots, and Pittsburgh had gotten the better of New England since Bill Parcells departed after taking the Patriots to the Super Bowl in 1996.
In the 1997 season, Bill Cowher's Steelers defeated the Patriots in Week 16 with a 24-21 overtime winner in Foxboro. Then three weeks later, the two teams squared off once again in the Divisional round, and the Steelers squeaked out a 7-6 victory at Three Rivers Stadium, before ultimately losing in the AFC Championship to John Elway, Terrell Davis and the eventual Super Bowl-champion Broncos.
However, this game did not go the Steelers' way. Despite playing the game with a broken finger on his throwing hand, Bledsoe tested the Pittsburgh defense early and often. He hit Terry Glenn on their first drive of the game with a 43-yard connection that was part of a 14-play drive that took 7:45 off the clock. The Steelers defense forced the Patriots to settle for a 21-yard chip shot from Adam Vinatieri.
While the Steelers stalled out on their first two drives, New England's second drive produced another big pass -- a 25-yard completion to Shawn Jefferson -- and another three points to give New England a 6-0 lead early in the second quarter.
After the Steelers went three and out, the Patriots drove the ball down the field once again. However, Bledsoe's broken finger plagued him on a throw intended for Ben Coates that was easy for Levon Kirkland to jump in front and intercept the pass. The Steelers capitalized on the turnover by driving down the field and cutting the lead in half on a 49-yard field goal by Norm Johnson.
But, the momentum swung heavily back in the Patriots' favor before halftime. With just over two minutes remaining until the break, Glenn got behind Darren Perry deep down the field and Bledsoe found him for an 86-yard touchdown to give New England a 13-3 lead. Stewart was able to use the final 1:50 in the half to march the Steelers down the field and pull them within a touchdown on Johnson's second field goal in the game.
While the defense gave up some big plays in the game, they also kept the Steelers in the game with takeaways. Chris Oldham picked off Bledsoe on New England's first drive of the third quarter, and the Steelers looked like they might even the score on a third-and-6 play at the Patriots' 25-yard line. Stewart found Hines Ward on a go route and placed the ball right in his hands as he crossed the goal line, but Willie Clay was able to close in fast enough to knock the ball out and force the Steelers to settle for Johnson's third and final field goal of the game, cutting the lead to 13-9.
Even though the defense stiffened against Bledsoe's offense in the third quarter, the Steelers wouldn't score again. After a three and out on their next drive, turnovers did the Steelers in. Stewart was picked off by Ty Law on the second play of the next drive which led to a Patriots' field goal that made it a 16-9 game.
Then, Jerome Bettis coughed up a rare fumble that gave the Patriots the ball at the Steelers' 35-yard line. A controversial pass interference call on Kirkland set up the Patriots at the 4-yard line, and Robert Edwards scored a touchdown on the next play to pull away for good.
In a vacuum, this 23-9 defeat was just a bad loss for the Steelers. The offense couldn't do anything in the first half, and the defense gave up one too many big plays down the field.
However, this was the first game played after the infamous coin toss debacle on Thanksgiving in Detroit. That eventual loss in sudden death overtime dropped the Steelers to 7-5 on the season.
This loss to the Patriots continued the Steelers' tail spin toward the end of the season. In fact, they didn't win again. Pittsburgh mustered only three points apiece in Weeks 15 and 17, and lost by one point to the Bengals in their final home game of the season in Week 16.
After starting the year 7-4, Pittsburgh finished the 1998 season with a 7-9 record -- the first of three losing seasons in Cowher's 15-year tenure.
THE MAIN MATCHUP
Every defensive player I talked to this week stressed the importance of stopping the Patriots' running game.
This is a team that finished eighth in the NFL in rushing yards. But, the Patriots are running a new offense this season Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson shared the majority of the workload last week against the Dolphins, but the Patriots only racked up 78 yards on 22 carries -- an average of 3.5 yards per carry.
However, the Patriots were successful running inside zones and crack tosses. On eight inside zone runs, they gained 38 yards (4.8 average), and gained 28 yards (5.6 average) on five toss plays. Those 13 runs also generated three rushes of ten-plus yards. Without Watt up front, it would be surprising if the Patriots didn't try more of what worked for them last week.
However, it would not be surprising if the Patriots tried to run more outside zone plays against the Steelers when they are in their 2-4-5 nickel defense in an attempt to attack the lack of size up front and create cutback lanes for the running back. Of the rare modest gains Joe Mixon had against the Steelers last week, the outside zone provided those opportunities for him.
The best way the Steelers' defense can be successful is to make Jones beat them through the air. The Dolphins did that well, and held the Patriots to only seven points. If the Steelers can win the war of attrition up front in their nickel defense, they stand the best chance to force Jones to hold onto the ball and make errors.
But, going back to the introduction, how successful can they be at executing this without Watt?
10 DATA POINTS
• Do you think the Steelers are going to miss Watt? He registered six tackles (all solo, and three for loss), two passes defensed, one interception, one quarterback hit and one sack at Cincinnati in Week 1 before leaving the game with his pectoral injury. He is the first player since 1982 with 70 or more sacks and five or more interceptions in his first six NFL seasons.
• Fitzpatrick’s 17 takeaways (12 interceptions, five fumble recoveries) are the third-most in the NFL since the start of the 2019 season. His five career defensive touchdowns is tied for third in the NFL among active players.
• The Steelers picked off Joe Burrow four times in Week 1. The four interceptions are tied for the second-most in franchise history in a season opener. They previously registered five in 1992 and 1980 -- both against the Oilers.
• Even after the Bills opened the season with a seven-sack performance, the Steelers found a way to match that and end up tied for the league lead in team sacks (the Chargers also registered seven sacks Monday night). Pittsburgh has led the NFL in sacks in each of the last five seasons (2017-21) -- the first team in NFL history to lead the NFL in sacks in four straight seasons, let alone five.
• In Week 1, the Steelers held Mixon to 3.0 yards per carry, even with a 31-yard scamper on a fourth-and-1 play. On the whole, the Bengals averaged 3.9 yards per carry. Even though it's only one game, that's a huge improvement over the 5.0 yards per carry the defense allowed in 2021 -- the worst in the NFL.
• Trubisky is 30-21 (.588) in his career as a starter. That includes a 26-13 (.667) record since the start of the 2018 season -- only four quarterbacks with 25 or more starts have a higher win percentage than Trubisky over that span (Patrick Mahomes, .794; Lamar Jackson, .760; Tom Brady, .727; Aaron Rodgers, .700).
• With his seven receptions in Week 1, Diontae Johnson has recorded five or more catches in 13 straight games -- the second-longest active streak in the NFL. His streak of 13 consecutive games with five or more catches is tied for the second-longest streak in franchise history.
• Lots of emphasis here on the Patriots's ability to run the football. In a Dec. 6 matchup with the Bills last season, the Patriots ran the ball 46 times for 222 yards and only attempted three passes the entire night -- the fewest since 1974. According to Next Gen Stats, their 94 percent run rate was the highest rate in the NFL in over 20 years.
• Sunday's game will be the 34th overall and 29th regular-season meeting between the Steelers and Patriots. Pittsburgh leads the regular-season series, 15-13, while New England holds a 17-16 advantage including the playoffs.
• Since Acrisure Stadium opened in 2001, the Steelers are 16-5 (.762) in their first home game of the season. The .762 winning percentage in regular-season home openers since 2001 is tied for the fourth-best in the NFL.
THE FANTASY CORNER
So, my Week 1 fantasy team did not do very well whatsoever (as opposed to my two leagues, where I went 1-1, and I scored the second-most points in the league where I lost). Even with stout performances by A.J. Brown, Christian Kirk and Jaylen Hurts, my point total was only 122.62. Looking to bounce back this week. This is with a $50,000 salary cap on DraftKings.
• QB: Carson Wentz, Commanders ($5,800)
• RB1: Leonard Fournette, Buccaneers ($6,700)
• RB2: Darrell Henderson, Jr., Rams ($5,700)
• WR1: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions ($6,400)
• WR2: Diontae Johnson, Steelers ($5,800)
• WR3: Christian Kirk, Jaguars ($5,700)
• TE: Darren Waller, Raiders ($5,600)
• FLEX: Robbie Anderson, Panthers ($5,300)
• DEF/ST: Steelers ($2,800)
I'm kind of riding the hot hand with guys such as Wentz, St. Brown and Anderson in the lineup. But, I feel this lineup is a bit more evened out than last week's, including what might be a steal with the Steelers' defense at only $2,800. Cam Akers was nonexistent in Week 1, so I'm taking Henderson Jr. as one of my running backs. And while Johnson didn't gain a ton of yards or get in the end zone last week in Cincinnati, he still caught seven passes. I tend to lean toward guys who have the potential for high volume.
