Your ability doesn't help when your availability ranges from nonexistent to infrequent.
Since he was acquired by the Penguins in Feb. 2020, Jason Zucker has missed a staggering 38.5% of regular-season games.
While his lack of availability due to injury is hardly his fault, Zucker's time with the Penguins has been disappointing no matter how you cut it.
As things stand, the Penguins traded a first-round pick, a B-tier prospect in defenseman Calen Addison, plus Alex Galchenyuk in exchange for 23 goals from Zucker over two seasons and some change.
Then you factor in his $5.5 million cap hit and ... yeah, not great -- especially for a team that needs to get the most from its medium-sized contracts to make up for Jack Johnson's lingering buyout cap hit and a couple other players who are likely making more than the actual value they bring to the ice.
Six of Zucker's regular-season goals with the Penguins came in his first 15 games after the trade when he was slotted alongside Sidney Crosby. The duo displayed instant chemistry, as Zucker's fast-paced, in-your-face, give-and-go style complemented the game Crosby likes to play, and in a big way. It only helped that Zucker was (and is) a strong player along the boards who could grind away in the corners or behind the net.
COVID reared its ugly head, shutting down the remainder of the 2019-20 regular-season until the postseason began months and months later. By that time, Jake Guentzel had recovered from shoulder surgery and re-claimed his spot flanking Crosby. It marked the end of the Zucker-Crosby partnership and the beginning of a Zucker-Evgeni Malkin duo that has yet to show any signs of gelling despite over 300 minutes together at 5-on-5 the past two seasons.
Of course, it might be hard to develop chemistry when both players spent nearly as much time on the shelf as they did on the ice over those two seasons. Still, I'd argue they just aren't stylistic fits for each other, but we'll leave that for another day.
There's been plenty of frustration regarding his injury struggles, but there's also been a good bit of frustration regarding Zucker's on-ice performance. Those frustrations have merit, no doubt, but there are positives to take away that point to Zucker as a potential X-factor for the Penguins this coming season, so long as he stays significantly more healthy than he has been during his time in Pittsburgh.
During the 2020-21 season, Zucker actually scored at a decent rate when he was in the lineup, finding the back of the net 0.91 times per hour during all situations. It was a step down from the previous season, but something the Penguins could live with. The problem was that Zucker wasn't generating nearly as many quality chances for himself, and that largely stemmed from a stern drop in the frequency of his shots.
The 0.73 expected goals per hour he created were a career-low for a single season, and his 12 shot attempts per hour were the second-lowest of his career. What made matters worse was that the Penguins were entirely outclassed when he was on the ice at 5-on-5, scoring just 43% of the goals and controlling a Mark Jankowski-esque 44.8% of the expected goals over 525 minutes.
Again, the injuries certainly played a role here, but this served as a major concern because Zucker carved out a career for himself with the Wild as someone who might not put up outrageous point totals, but would drive play (at both ends of the ice) to such an extent that he could carry a line, or at the very least be a major contributor to one.
Sure, he potted 33 goals once, but the Penguins' interest in him was always about the qualities and traits he brought that helped retain and control possession. He didn't bring them to the table.
Then things flipped last season.
Zucker came into training camp and said he wanted to get back to his game by shooting the puck more. In the 41 games he was healthy in the lineup for, he did just that, bringing the rate of his shot attempts back up to 14.4 per hour. The increased shot volume brought his expected goals generation up to 1.02 per hour, a mere decimal point lower than what he generated in his first 15 Penguins games, and a mere decimal point lower than the second-best rate he ever produced in a season with the Wild.
Even better, Zucker's play-driving prowess resurfaced, just not quite on the level of his heyday. During his 536 minutes of 5-on-5 ice-time, the Penguins controlled a very strong 55.5% of the expected goals. Additionally, his isolated impact toward helping his team create quality offense ranked in the top quarter of league forwards, as did his isolated impact toward helping his team limit quality chances against, per JFresh Hockey.
The problem?
Zucker's actual goal-scoring rate fell to 0.79 per hour, the second-lowest of any season since becoming an everyday player in 2014-15:
All situations. G/60 = goals per hour. ixG/60 = individual expected goals per hour.
Typically a plus-finisher, Zucker endured the worst finishing of his career as he was in and out of the lineup throughout the season with various injuries.
Now, if my years of experience delving into hockey spreadsheets have taught me anything, it's to bank on a player to rebound from a career-low shooting percentage. Zucker's 7.8% shooting percentage last season was not only the lowest of his career, but the first time he dipped below 9.8% since 2015-16. A 12.4% shooter for his entire career, he's finished with a double-digits shooting percentage five of the past eight seasons.
And this isn't simply explained away by an increase in shots. He wasn't spamming them from anywhere any chance he got. He was finding his way to the slot and backdoor, the puck just wasn't going in. That likely changes if he continues to do so next season.
He'll need to stay healthy to do so, obviously, and that's the biggest question, because I am certain there's an impactful player in there. Hoping for him to live up to his cap hit is likely a lost cause, but that doesn't mean he can't provide value to the Penguins.
Let's say Zucker plays in 60+ games next season. It's possible he'll see a slight negative regression in his play-driving abilities from last season, and perhaps even his expected goals generation. It's extremely likely he sees a positive regression on the finishing front. If he checks in as an above-average play-driver (say ~60th percentile for offense and defense combined) and brings his scoring rate up to just 1.0 goal per hour, that's a massive, massive win for the Penguins.
He. Just. Has. To. Stay. Healthy.
On the other hand, Zucker will turn 31 in Jan. 2023 and is at the age where, wingers in particular, start to see meaningful and sometimes harsh drops in their performance. That holds even more true for those who have dealt with injuries. That doesn't mean every 30+ player is destined for decline, but it is an overall trend.
Maybe it's not the smartest thing in the world to expect a significant rebound from a player who said the training staff had a white board in which they were "trying to figure out some sort of algorithm to keep (him) on the ice" at his end-of-season media availability.
During the playoffs Zucker sat on a stool next to the Penguins' bench. He wasn't anywhere near 100% despite playing a pretty decent series against the Rangers, all things considered. He said surgery was on the table during the offseason, but Ron Hextall confirmed in July that Zucker did not and will not undergo surgery, and that he's progressing.
Zucker has shown each of the skills that make him an enticing player at one point or another in his time with the Penguins, he just hasn't put them all together at the same time in the midst of seemingly nonstop injuries.
Assuming a relatively clean bill of health in 2022-23, Zucker could be on track for his best season in years. The Penguins' forward depth won't be as strong as it was last season, so there's never been a better time than now for their 2020 investment to live up to his cost of acquisition.
