ALTOONA, Pa. -- This was inevitable, in the sense that everyone in college football expected it to happen, but that doesn't make it any less historic what finally occurred Friday afternoon.
The College Football Playoff is expanding from four to 12 teams.
And that is wonderful news for both Penn State and Pitt. Oh, and everyone else in college football, including and especially perhaps Notre Dame.
"We're all delighted with the management committee of the board of managers' decision to expand the playoff to 12 teams," CFP Executive Director Bill Hancock said during a press conference.
"This is beginning in 2026, regular season. But the board did charge the management committee to examine the feasibility of starting early. That will be a big step if the board wants to take a run at it, and that's what we'll be doing."
That last part is significant because we may not have to wait until 2026 for this to happen. It's probably not feasible to think the expansion to 12 could come as early as the 2023 season because of existing contracts and TV deals, etc., but look for a whole lot of negotiating to take place to see if this can start as early as 2024.
The six highest-rated conference champions and then the next six highest-rated at-large teams will comprise the 12-team College Football Playoff field. So, essentially, finishing in the top 12 will get you in.
Last season, Pitt was ranked 12th in the final CFP poll, meaning the Panthers would have been selected for the playoff in a 12-team field.
Penn State finished in the top 12 of the final CFP poll four consecutive seasons from 2016-19 and would have made a 12-team playoff. The Nittany Lions were No. 5 in 2016, No. 9 in 2017, No. 12 in 2018 and No. 10 in 2019.
With as much success as Penn State has enjoyed recently -- 2020 and '21 notwithstanding -- seeing the playoff field expand to 12 is an extremely welcomed change for James Franklin and everyone in the program.
The way Penn State recruits and with everything else the program has going for it, one would think the Lions would be in position to finish in the top 12 at least five or six times a decade. So Penn State could indeed be a perennial College Football Playoff contender/participant once the field grows to 12.
Even if -- and this part is wild -- the Lions never beat Ohio State.
That's right, Penn State won't even need to find a way to solve its biggest puzzle in order to reach a playoff. The Lions did beat the Buckeyes in 2016, but ironically didn't make the four-team field at 10-2. But Penn State lost to Ohio State in 2017, 2018 and 2019, had multiple losses each year and still finished in the top 12.
So, in theory, even if Penn State never beats Ohio State ever again and loses one other game each season, the Lions still could make their way into a 12-team playoff in any given year. That's just crazy!
Pitt came on strong last season with an ACC championship and could have the kind of team that flourishes again this year. Pat Narduzzi has positioned the Panthers to be a contender in the ACC, and while they have not had as much success as Penn State over the past couple of decades, they still could be considered a potential top-12 team at least every few years the way things are trending.
Having a 12-team field will keep a whole lot of programs in the mix for playoff berths year in and year out and will make it fascinating to watch the weekly rankings unfold to see who is where in relation to the top 12.
The bigger field also is going to make loads and loads of money for everyone in college football, so obviously that's what all of this is really about. There have been economic impact studies that have shown a 12-team playoff could be worth more than $1 billion a year in TV money, which is staggering.
OK, so what about Notre Dame?
There's no doubt the Fighting Irish want to remain independent. There has been a lot of speculation in recent months about whether Notre Dame eventually may end up in the Big Ten, ACC or SEC as part of the conference reshuffling, but the Irish need two things in order to keep their independence:
1. A big TV contract, which they are working on, and
2. A clear and feasible path to a College Football Playoff berth even as an independent, which this new expansion will allow for.
So, Notre Dame comes out a big winner in all this, which means we probably should not expect the Irish to join a conference any time soon.
Is 12 the right number for the College Football Playoff?
Four wasn't enough because there are five power conferences, and everyone wanted guaranteed berths for conference champions.
Six -- with the top two seeds getting a bye -- always seemed like a reasonable number, because it would have allowed for the five major conference champions and one at-large. But that model would not have made anywhere near as much money, and neither would going to an eight-team field.
So, 12 made the most sense for this round of expansion.
Going to 12 will mean that several two-loss teams will make the field each year. And in some years, there could even be one or two three-loss teams make it.
If by some chance the field ever expands to 16, which is too many but would make more money, it's not unrealistic to think there could be a four-loss team make it under certain scenarios.
