ALTOONA, Pa. -- There is a chance Penn State could be really good this season, centering largely on the offensive line playing much, much better, and Sean Clifford really turning it up during his 17th -- er, sixth -- and final college season.
If everything goes right, the Nittany Lions could win nine or even 10 games. Make no mistake, Penn State has a lot of talent and will have a good chance to win every single game it plays, with the exception of Ohio State, which will be favored by double digits when it visits Happy Valley.
But here's the thing with Penn State, coming off back-to-back hugely disappointing seasons: The Lions just have a way of playing down to their level of competition too often, which leaves too many things to chance and puts more emphasis on James Franklin to make one good decision after another in order to win.
That's a big sticking point for me. I know that Penn State has a lot of good players and is capable of looking really good at times. But the Lions just find a way to look mediocre or lousy for large stretches of games, and given that I also have major question marks about the O-line and Clifford, I just don't have great faith in this team this season.
I picked the Lions to go 7-5. As I've said repeatedly, I have a hard time believing a team that went 7-5 last season and saw eight players drafted into the NFL will actually be better after losing all that talent. Sure, it can happen, but first we need to see the offensive line take a giant leap forward if I'm going to believe that it can.
How do I get to 7-5? Below are my game-by-game predictions, knowing everything that we know right now, today. The problem with picking each game like this in the preseason is that so many things can change dramatically between now and each one of these games -- such as key injuries or whatnot -- that trying to predict so far in advance can seem like a fruitless enterprise.
Nevertheless, it's still fun to try and dissect the schedule beforehand, so let's give it a shot.
SEPT. 1 AT PURDUE
The Boilermakers are going to be incredibly fired up for this blackout home opener on Sept. 1, and they are one of the few teams on the schedule that can actually do a lot of damage through the air.
I expect Aidan O'Connell (71.6 completion percentage last season) to throw the ball a ton, like 45-50 times, and for well over 300 yards. Wisconsin shot itself in the foot time and time again in the red zone in last year's opener, or else Penn State would have lost that game. I don't see Purdue making the same mistake.
Now, Penn State's offense should be able to do some damage against Purdue's defense, especially if there is any semblance of a running game. So this could be a high-scoring affair.
I'll take the better passing team playing at home. Purdue 32, Penn State 29
SEPT. 10. VS. OHIO
The Bobcats went 3-9 last season and had a bad defense. Penn State 36, Ohio 13
SEPT. 17 AT AUBURN
Auburn wasn't very good last season, finishing 6-7, and lost at Penn State, 28-20, in a game that saw Clifford complete 28-of-32 for 280 yards, 2 TDs and one INT.
It's incredibly difficult to go into an SEC team's stadium and win. Yes, Penn State will have a chance to do that, and it'll come down to the same-old, same-old factors of the O-line and Clifford. This kind of game is where Clifford's experience can pay off because he won't be at all intimidated by the new surroundings.
If Penn State does win this game, then look out. It could be a huge springboard from a confidence standpoint.
But I cannot predict the Lions to go into Jordan-Hare Stadium and pull off a victory. Auburn 23, Penn State 20
SEPT. 24 VS. CENTRAL MICHIGAN
This could be a more interesting game than many people expect. Because the Chippewas went 9-4 last under under Jim McElwain, the former Florida coach, and might be able to give the Lions a decent challenge.
If Penn State beats Purdue and Auburn and is 3-0, then I would pick an easy victory here. But if the Lions are coming off a loss to Auburn, and certainly if they come into this at 1-2, then you just never know how the team will respond. Things have, of course, spiraled out of control the past two seasons with long losing stretches, so it's not like Franklin has been great at finding ways to right the ship.
That said, even if Penn State is 1-2 as I think it will be, I'm gonna give the Lions the benefit of the doubt that they'll bounce back here. Penn State 31, Central Michigan 16
OCT. 1 VS. NORTHWESTERN
The Wildcats will always give a good effort, but they seem to be way down from a talent standpoint. Lions get their first Big Ten victory. Penn State 27, Northwestern 17
OCT. 15 AT MICHIGAN
Penn State will come into this game off a bye week, so it should be fully rested and as prepared as possible. We all remember the terrible losses at the Big House in 2016 (49-10) and 2018 (42-7), but the Lions did win their last time there in 2020 (27-17).
Michigan will do what Michigan does, which is try and control the game on the ground, and Penn State's run defense will be put to the test. Linebacker is a question mark entering the season, and by this stage, we will know a whole lot more about that group.
This is the kind of game that Penn State can win, no doubt, because it has talented athletes to match up with the Wolverines. But on the road, facing a preseason top 10 team, it's hard at this stage to predict anything but a loss. Michigan 27, Penn State 21
TAKING A PAUSE
OK, let me take a break right here because this is where things could get really interesting, and so making predictions right now might be useless depending on certain factors.
If Penn State is having a great season, say 5-1, then we can expect the status quo with Clifford at quarterback. But if the Lions are 3-3 at this stage -- and I have them at 3-3 -- then we have to ask: Why would Clifford still be the quarterback?
The primary season goals will be gone. He's a 24-year-old QB in his sixth season. There are three younger guys behind him in Christian Veilleux, prized recruit Drew Allar and Beau Pribula. If Penn State is 3-3, then the Clifford era needs to come to an end, and the Lions need to start building for the future with a younger QB.
Now, Clifford still could give the team its best chance to win any individual game the rest of the season. But what would be the point? And at what cost? Continuing to start him when the season is lost would be foolish because it could lead to unrest among the other quarterbacks and jeopardize them staying at Penn State.
Look, the Lions might beat Purdue and Auburn and none of this even comes into play. But Franklin had better be prepared for this contingency if they lose a couple of games early, because keeping Allar happy with some legitimate playing time might be the most important thing that could come out of the second half of the season.
OK, back to the predictions.
OCT. 22 VS. MINNESOTA
The Kirk Ciarrocca vs. Mike Yurcich bowl! You know Ciarrocca will want some revenge after getting fired by Franklin after the 2020 season. And Minnesota certainly could have a chance to beat Penn State.
But I can't pick against the Lions in this whiteout game. Penn State 30, Minnesota 24
OCT. 29 VS. OHIO STATE
Ain't happening. Buckeyes will go undefeated and play in the national title game, and C.J. Stroud will win the Heisman. Ohio State 36, Penn State 23
NOV. 5 AT INDIANA
Should be a decent game. No freaking 2-point conversion controversy this time. Penn State 30, Indiana 23
NOV. 12 VS. MARYLAND
Penn State is 41-3 against the Terps, but Maryland did win its last time at Beaver Stadium in 2020 (35-19).
Once again, at this stage of the season, will Clifford still be playing? Either way, a home win. Penn State 35, Maryland 27
NOV. 19 AT RUTGERS
Does anyone ever get excited to any degree about these late-season games against Rutgers? Penn State 30, Rutgers 17
NOV. 26 VS. MICHIGAN STATE
You'll note I've got Penn State at 7-4 heading into this game. Many people are predicting the Lions to go 8-4, and winning this at home would get them to 8-4, as well, under my scenarios.
This will be senior day for Clifford and others, and the Lions usually do well there. But one more time, why would Clifford even be playing in this game if the Lions have four losses? That's really why I'm taking Sparty. Michigan State 26, Penn State 24
Check out the podcast below, focusing on how Penn State is really never more than one or two wins away from getting back to national prominence.
