The Pirates struck out 260 times in the month of July.
Upon a deeper dive, it gets worse.
In 26 games this past month, 260 different Pirates had nothing to show for their at-bat. That's an average of 10 a game, or 27.2% of all of their plate appearances (956 in total) over a month. Outside of a stretch from May 22 to June 21, 2013, no Pirates team has struck out that many times in a 26 game period. (The 2013 team technically hit this threshold four different times, but all in that same stretch.)
As far as single months goes, using FanGraphs' monthly splits tool (which dates back to only 2002, but likely covers the rest of the franchise's history given the spike in strikeouts league-wide this millennium), there have only been three other months where the Pirates racked up more strikeouts. Two were in September with expanded rosters and extra October games stapled on. In 2015, they struck out 281 times, though they also had 339 more plate appearances as a team than the July 2022 Pirates, so this is due in large part to a large sample size. Same goes for 2012, when they struck out 266 times over 1,171 trips to the plate.
The only other Pirate team to strike out more in a month was... the June 2022 Pirates at 263.
I promise there's a Mound Visit in here somewhere, but we're taking the long way to get there.
The 2022 Pirates offense might not go down as one of the worst in franchise history like they did in 2020, but it's still one of the worst in the league this year. Their 363 runs are the third-fewest in baseball, ahead of only the Tigers and Athletics. Their .650 OPS is 28th in baseball, as is their OPS+ (83). It's quite possibly the worst offense in the Senior Circuit.
A lot of that has to do with who the team is giving playing time to. This year, 15 players have recorded at least 100 plate appearances with the Pirates. Just four have an OPS over 100 (league average) or better. One is Bryan Reynolds (119). No surprise there. Another is Kevin Newman (114), a pleasant surprise this year, even if it has come in a smaller sample size because of an earlier injury. He also is a potential trade candidate before Tuesday's deadline. One player who was dealt already was Daniel Vogelbach, who cracks this list. The fourth is Jack Suwinski (100), who is currently with Class AAA Indianapolis.
Looking around the league, the only teams with fewer plus hitters are -- you guess it -- the Tigers (2) and Athletics (3).
On the flip side, the Pirates have 11 hitters that have taken at least 100 trips to the plate and have an OPS+ of 100 or lower. That's tied for the second most in baseball with the Tigers and Athletics, and trails only the Reds -- who finally decided to get in on the fun here -- who have a dozen. If you want to take it a step further, the Pirates have seven hitters with an OPS+ of 80 or lower. That means they're producing at least 20% less than the league average hitter. That's tied with the Athletics for the most in baseball.
Do you really need me to name names to figure out who those seven are?
There will be some overdue roster shakeup coming soon, either through the trade deadline or the Pirates finally embracing the youth movement again instead of hoping teams will offer anything for sub-replacement level veterans. If they're going to lose, losing with the kids is at least more palatable. But they can't fall into this strikeout trend if they are searching for ways to grow into 2023 and beyond.
Hitting coach Andy Haines has been under fire for the Pirates lack of offense. Some of the struggles can stem from ideology. It's not a launch angle-focused approach or trying to make every batter into a three-true-outcome guy. In my opinion and in my research, it comes down to how often the Pirates swing at pitches in the zone.
Talking with Haines in Cincinnati last month, he said the team needs to be mindful of how often a pitcher throws strikes, which is absolutely true. If there's a junkballer on the mound who is going to try to get you to chase, you have to be mindful of that. It's also incredibly important that a hitter goes to the plate with an idea of what they want to do at that at-bat. If you have a plan, it gives you a better chance at success.
"Definitely gonna quit expanding too much and just try to sit in my zone and stay there," Bligh Madris said this week. "I might strike out looking but I'm gonna live and die with my plan of approach, wherever that plan may be on a given day. That's something Vogey taught me before he headed out: Live and die with your plan. You can sleep good at night if you do that, no matter the results. It’s not always about result. It's about locking into your point and being convicted to that. Numbers come along with that, as long as you stay on that course. If your plan is good enough, it'll pay off over time."
I did a Mound Visit on Vogelbach's no-swing approach at the plate, and the final conclusion is he can get away with being so patient because he draws walks and has power. His batting average will be low, but he'll still produce. It works for him, and making sure a hitter sticks with their plan is really good advice. It has to be their plan, not Vogelbach's.
Something is getting lost in translation between being patient and sticking to your plan and not having an aggressive at-bat. It's why this year, the Pirates have seen their team strikeout rate has increased 3.6% (from 22.2% in 2021 to 25.8% this year). That's the largest team jump post-pandemic season. And that's despite having one of the best contact rates on pitches in the zone (83.3%, fourth-best) and a better than league average chase rate.
They do whiff a lot more out of the zone, but a big problem is their 63% swing percentage on pitches in the zone, according to Baseball Savant. That's the lowest in baseball. They're watching strikes go by more frequently than any other team. These strikeouts are self-inflicted.
And when you look at the Pirates' swing percentages at pitches in the zone, the guys you would want to swing the bat the most, like Oneil Cruz, are instead watching too many strikes. For reference, FanGraphs' data indicates that league swings at 69% of pitches in the zone. Only four Pirates reach that threshold:
COURTESY OF FANGRAPHS
On July 14, the Pirates watched 41 called strikes go by against the Marlins. That played a major role in an extra-inning road loss, and ultimately cost them a series win. After the game, Derek Shelton said that if his team did watch that many strikes, they need to be more aggressive moving forward. They have to be.
This offense is going to look different soon. It needs to, not just in terms of personnel, but also approach.
