Before re-signing Danton Heinen on Wednesday, the Penguins' forward depth was ... not ideal.
The top-six was -- and is -- strong, but the bottom-six sorely lacked offensive upside outside of Kasperi Kapanen, and relying on him to be the main producer of that group would be risky business.
In the event of an injury to Jason Zucker or Bryan Rust, or even both, the options to slide up the lineup and fill those roles were not very enticing. If Brock McGinn is playing on your second line, you're gonna have a bad time.
Heinen's return doesn't entirely address the Penguins' depth that is full of question marks, but don't underestimate the effect his presence will have on balancing their lines while providing the option to be a bit more creative with combinations.
Even though he spent parts of last season on the second line, Heinen's minutes per game averaged out lower than any regular Penguins skater. He figures to see quite a bit more utilization next season, and the Penguins will be better off for it.
In a perfect world, Heinen's minutes would teeter between a second and third line rate to squeeze the most value out of him (as if they aren't already doing so by paying him a paltry $1 million salary), but that doesn't mean he isn't suited for a permanent spot on the second line if circumstances dictate it.
Last season Heinen was one of the Penguins' most effective players at 5-on-5. Individually, he tied with Jake Guentzel for the team-lead in expected goals per hour with 1.07, tied for third in goals per hour with 1.03, and led the team with an expected shooting percentage of 9.1% on unblocked shot attempts, signaling that the quality of his shots were much higher than average.
As a team, the Penguins scored 54.3% of the on-ice goals and controlled 58.9% of the expected goals when he was on the ice at 5-on-5. The rate at which they scored with him out there (3.13 goals per hour) trailed only Rickard Rakell (4.09), Jake Guentzel (3.29) and Sidney Crosby (3.23).
With Heinen providing necessary scoring depth, let's take a look at what my lineup would look like if I were Mike Sullivan.
The Penguins are currently over the salary cap by $1,480,175, and that doesn't include Radim Zohorna, Drake Caggiula or P.O Joseph. Assuming there are no other personnel changes moving forward (I'm not ruling them out), they can become compliant by sending Drew O'Connor and Ty Smith to the AHL to start the season. Their cap hits combine for $1,613,333 and won't count against the salary cap at all if they are in the minors. The Penguins won't have to worry about losing them to another team as they are both waiver-exempt.
We'll move forward with this exercise under the assumption that the following players will be on the NHL roster for the start of the season, ranked by cap hit:
CENTERS
Crosby
Evgeni Malkin
Jeff Carter
Teddy Blueger
LEFT WINGERS
Guentzel
Zucker
McGinn
Heinen
Poehling* (natural center)
RIGHT WINGERS
Rust
Rakell
Kapanen
Josh Archibald
MY LINEUP
Guentzel-Crosby-Rakell
Heinen-Malkin-Rust
Zucker-Carter-Kapanen
Poehling-Blueger-McGinn
I might as well buy a billboard advertisement along the parkway at this point with how much I've clamored for it, but Rakell should get an extended look next to Crosby next season. They were extremely dominant in a brief stint together last season and scored goals at will, generating plenty of additional chances as well to suggest they weren't simply benefitting from poor goaltending.
Rakell isn't anywhere close to the top handful of wingers Crosby has played with, but he does possess a rare combination of skill and physicality that hasn't really existed in any of Crosby's previous wingers. I see Rakell as a phenomenal complement to Crosby and Guentzel, and believe he could help the top line score at a greater clip than it would with Rust in that spot.
No, that's not a dig at Rust. He's done well there for several seasons. The three of them made a very good line. However, the idea that they are inseparable is ridiculous. Of 34 lines to play at least 300 minutes together last season, Guentzel-Crosby-Rust ranked 23rd with a 55.9% on-ice goals share at 5-on-5 and 28th with a 49.6% expected goals share. That doesn't come close to the best line in the league. I'll spare you the numbers, but the results were very similar during the 2020-21 season.
Rakell didn't click with Malkin, and while they very well could develop some chemistry, Rust has proven to thrive alongside Malkin. In 124 minutes together at 5-on-5 last season, the Penguins scored 57.2% of the goals and generated 62.7% of the expected goals. That's not small sample variance, either. Don't forget Malkin had one of his best seasons ever in 2019-20 when he centered Rust and Guentzel in Crosby's absence.
I've got Heinen penciled in on the second line because he, too, played well with Malkin last season despite enduring poor percentage luck. The duo rocked a 60.7% expected goals share during 242 minutes of 5-on-5 play together. Their 52.5% share of goals was anything but inspiring on the surface, but that will happen when you receive sub-.900 goaltending.
This is where things start to get interesting. If Zucker can stay healthy (I know, I know) and maintain his rediscovered play-driving prowess from last season, he should be very effective -- albeit grossly overpaid -- on the third line. He also has the potential to chip in goals at a higher rate than we've seen over the past two seasons, but for now the Penguins should just hope he continues to help them control play.
Carter centering the third line is a significant concern heading into next season. His speed and skating deteriorated in a big way during the latter stages of last season, which caused the Penguins to hemorrhage chances against while failing to create many of their own. He really needs to transition to the wing at this stage of his career, but the Penguins don't have much of a choice but to roll with him there. The optimist says a reduced workload will pay dividends for Carter. The pessimist says another year on Carter's legs are only going to make things worse.
Kapanen might be the Penguins' biggest wild card. They gambled on him reaching his potential with a two-year contract at a $3.2 million cap hit. The tools are there, but he has to figure out how to capture it all and put it together. I have serious doubts he'll do so, at least enough to justify his contract, but there were some encouraging signs at the end of last season that improvement was on the horizon.
The biggest sign was the development of his defensive game. After multiple seasons of providing replacement-level value in his own zone, Kapanen's defensive impacts were actually above-average last season. He also had a strong first-round playoff series against the Rangers. Sullivan called it some of his best hockey all season, although he ultimately failed to find the back of the net.
Kapanen's actual value can quickly usurp his cap hit if he manages to produce on a level in line with his 2020-21 season while carrying over his newfound defensive play. He'll be the focal point of his line's transition game. The opportunity will be there to make it happen.
Blueger has carved out his role as a superb defensive center on the fourth line. He is what he is at this point. His offense is limited, and that's OK. He definitely misses Zach Aston-Reese, but there's nothing of substance here to discuss.
At a $2.75 million cap hit, McGinn is a lock to be in the lineup. It's a good thing it will likely be on the fourth line, as I'm not convinced a player like O'Connor or Zohorna couldn't produce better overall impacts at a fraction of the cost. He doesn't sink his team when he's on the ice, but his middling defensive impact is entirely washed away by the degree to which he drags down the Penguins' ability to generate chances. Last season the Penguins' penalty-kill fared better without him on the ice than with him. He should be fine alongside Blueger, just don't expect anything special.
For the final spot I went with Poehling over Archibald. The latter had no business being signed considering the readily available options already in-house. He does not produce, he does not help generate offense, and his teams tend to get rocked in their own zone during his ice-time. He runs around and hits. Quite frankly I view him as a smaller version of Sam Lafferty. There's just nothing there that the Penguins need.
Poehling is a natural center, but told our Taylor Haase he is comfortable on the wing. One of the main things holding his game back to this point is a tendency to get swarmed with the puck on his stick. He could benefit from the shift as he would be able to focus on leveraging his shot and not have to carry as much of a burden in the defensive zone or on transition duties. I wouldn't say I'm bullish on Poehling, although there is some intrigue to what he could provide in a limited capacity.
This group is far better off right now than they were to start the day Wednesday. It's not a perfect group by any means, but Heinen selflessly returning on another bargain-bin deal has afforded Sullivan some room to breathe when it comes to putting his lines together.
