It's not a question of if Jeff Petry will help the Penguins' attack, but how much Petry will help the Penguins' attack.
Petry, turning 35 in December, struggled mightily at the beginning of last season on a poor Canadiens team and racked up only six points in his first 38 games. After several seasons as an elite point-producer among defensemen, it wasn't all that much of a stretch to assume his game simply crashed and burned with his environment.
Then came Martin St. Louis, who took over as the Canadiens' head coach on Feb. 9 and sparked a major change in organizational philosophy and tactics.
Petry benefitted immensely, and by the end of the season looked just as strong as he did the several seasons prior, picking up 21 points in 30 games with St. Louis behind the bench.
In fact, Petry's performance down the stretch last season actually outshined the performance of Kris Letang during the same timeframe.
Here's how they compared from Feb. 9 through the end of the regular season during 5-on-5 play:
Petry
498 minutes
Goals per hour: 0.6
Expected goals per hour: 0.24
Primary assists per hour: 0.72
Points per hour: 1.92
On-ice goals share: 53.7%
On-ice expected goals share: 52.7%
Letang
665 minutes
Goals per hour: 0.27
Expected goals per hour: 0.24
Primary assists per hour: 0.81
Points per hour: 1.53
On-ice goals share: 52.7%
On-ice expected goals share: 50.3%
Looking forward to next season, I'd be surprised to see Petry end up as the Penguins' most productive blue liner, but it's clear he can augment their offense much more than the likes of John Marino, who had all the tools to have a positive impact on the offensive side of the puck, but never captured it all to put it together.
The Penguins are betting on Petry's proven offensive track record rather than hoping Marino finally becomes what he's clearly capable of.
Even though he sat behind Shea Weber on the right side of the Canadiens' defense up until last season, Petry was utilized as a top pairing defenseman for the majority of his time in Montreal, never averaging fewer than 22 minutes per game in any season. The Penguins will be able to rely on that during any Letang absence, but more importantly they should be able to slightly decrease his workload as long as Letang stays healthy.
Here's a glimpse at Petry's impacts over the past three seasons, courtesy of JFresh Hockey. You can read an explainer on the player card here.
JFresh Hockey
Despite coming back down to Earth since his 2019-20 season that had him in the conversation for the Norris Trophy as the NHL's best defenseman, Petry remains one of the league's best scorers from the back end, and is comfortably in the top quarter of league blue liners in regard to positively impacting his team's ability to generate quality offensive looks.
Defensively, Petry's impacts have incrementally dropped each of the past two seasons, but as it stands, he still grades out roughly league-average when it comes to helping his team limit chances against. The drop is part of a natural progression that comes along with age, but one of the things that will help Petry's defensive impacts remain about where they are now, is his ability to defend the blue line.
Petry isn't the most staunch rush defender, but his smooth skating and reach allow him to time up puck carriers right before they enter the zone and force them to dump the puck, or force a less than ideal pass.
However, you'll notice Petry's special teams impacts aren't anything to write home about. Part of the reason for his eighth percentile power play impact is that he loves to shoot the puck. With his team on the advantage, Petry shoots roughly nine percent more frequently than average. His shot and finishing are one of his biggest strengths, but with extra time and space, teams are better served working the puck around and looking to get in tight instead of settling for low-conversion shots from the point. The Canadiens also centered their power plays around feeding Weber endless one-timers and, eventually, feeding Petry in the middle of the ice at the point for him to blast away into shin pads.
The following clip occurred during overtime, but it's a great display of Petry's puck skills and instincts that ultimately lead to his very strong offensive results:
With Justin Faulk crossing over toward the middle, Petry crossed over to the outside upon crossing the blue line with the puck and skated toward the ice Faulk had just occupied. With Faulk still pivoting to face the play, Petry got the puck out to his side and crossed back over toward the middle while scanning for his teammates. After backing Faulk down a bit more, Petry loaded the puck in his hop pocket -- indicating a shot or pass -- and froze Faulk before quickly deking to his backhand and slipping a cross-ice feed to Cole Caufield for an easy tap-in.
Really not picking on Marino here, but he never showcased the ability to be a threat to that extent with the puck on his stick, or even such swift playmaking ability.
Over the past two seasons, Evgeni Malkin played with Marino more than any other defender. The Penguins still scored and generated chances at an above-average clip even though Marino effectively served as a wet blanket in the offensive zone. The effect it will have on Malkin to have a defender other than Letang who can make plays and get him the puck -- on top of being a shooting threat -- will be massive.
Petry, for the most part, plays with conviction and decisiveness, something that sorely lacked from Marino's game since the end of his rookie campaign:
Going into my film study of Petry, I knew that he liked to activate in the offensive zone. What I didn't know was that he's not only extremely comfortable doing so, but he's got a sixth sense for picking his spots to jump up.
In the clip above, I was surprised to see Petry continue gliding into the zone and below the circles ... only for the puck to end up on his stick a moment later. Those instincts can't be taught.
Perhaps more noteworthy than his willingness to activate is Petry's ability to improve his body positioning and condition of the puck when along the wall. In an instant, Petry went from facing the corner with the puck in front of him, to coming out of the corner at an attack angle with the puck in a loaded position. He identified the open pocket of ice in front of him, took it, then blistered a shot upstairs as a screen flashed through the goalie's sightline.
Since the beginning of the 2020-21 season, Petry attempts over four more shots than Marino every hour at 5-on-5. Add in Petry's high-end finishing and the offensive upgrade is immense before considering anything else.
But as we discussed above, Petry also has some playmaking upside:
Petry is great at positioning himself to keep the play out in front. He doesn't jeopardize his vision or the direction of his toe caps unless absolutely necessary. Above, he drifted toward the boards in an attempt to hold the offensive zone with his heels pointed toward the boards instead of completely turning his body and putting his back to the middle of the ice.
Because of this, he was immediately positioned to make a play after keeping the puck in the zone. He didn't panic or rush under pressure, then identified an open teammate in the middle of the ice and completed a pass.
Working the puck to the middle of the ice and not skating to compromised positions in the corner was something the Penguins had very little of outside of Letang and Mike Matheson last season.
Ron Hextall said improving the transition game was a focus for the front office this offseason. Petry will contribute in that department by making great first passes from his own zone. He's not afraid to use his feet to break the puck out, either, and is surprisingly shifty for a player of his size, let alone a defenseman:
Petry certainly isn't a burner, but he still has a pretty quick first step that helps him pounce on loose pucks, just like he did above. Once his legs get moving, his vision and scanning take over. He won't benefit from many primary assists like he did there, but the takeaway is how he gets the puck up ice.
In the final clip, Petry yet again displays the smarts to keep open ice in front of him and not compromise his body position, this time doing so to buy time to survey his options and eventually complete an exit pass:
Regarding physicality, Petry doesn't take the body as often as you'd expect from a 6-foot-3, 209-pound defender, but he uses his stick as a tool at the net-front and in the corners to tie up attackers and keep the puck out of harm's way.
Petry's best days are behind him. That doesn't mean he won't be an extremely impactful option for the Penguins, and I suspect the offensive component of his game will pay massive dividends.
There's still the possibility Marcus Pettersson is traded before next season begins, but for now, I see him as the ideal partner for Petry. He is arguably the best defensive defenseman the Penguins employ, and would serve as a great complement for Petry to leverage his best skills.
