ALTOONA, Pa. -- Pitt has a good home in the ACC. For now. The Panthers undoubtedly are hoping to stay right where they are, too, since their current home offers a lot of security in football and basketball.
The problem is, Pitt does not control its own destiny. You know how players and coaches always like to say that sort of thing when it comes to winning or losing? Well, in the case of the ACC -- and therefore Pitt -- the future depends heavily on two other schools and what they ultimately decide to do in the conference reshuffling bonanza.
Make no mistake, Pitt is not in an enviable position when it comes to the game of musical chairs taking place in college athletics. When the music stops playing, lots of big-name programs could be fighting over a small number of seats, with the winners remaining a big part of major college football, and the losers being relegated to second-class citizens.
Now, this is not to say that Pitt is doomed, either. There are several positive scenarios that could take place which would keep Pitt athletics viable at the highest levels.
With USC and UCLA joining the Big Ten last week, we have entered the self-preservation era of college athletics, where teams across the country will be jockeying for position to make sure they still have a seat at the big boy table.
Following is an attempt to lay it all on the line regarding Pitt's future, with some good news, some not-so-good news and several potential scenarios.
THE GOOD NEWS
Pitt has a great tradition, is still a solid brand and is coming off an excellent season in football. There is a whole lot for Pitt fans to be proud of and to look forward to from a competition standpoint, especially in football.
Just to be clear, so that everyone understands up front, none of what you're going to read next should be considered as taking some kind of shot at Pitt -- especially coming from a Penn State writer -- or belittling the program in any way.
There are realities in college athletics, plain and simple.
THE BAD NEWS
Pitt does not deliver a big TV market. Period. Or a rabid fan base that shows up to sell out stadiums everywhere it goes.
Pitt's appeal, then, when it comes to joining a new conference is limited.
If any of that offends a Pitt fan reading this, hey, I'm sorry, I just don't know what to tell you. Again, we have to be realistic when we're having this discussion.
Having said that, let's look at scenarios.
BIG TEN
The Big Ten doesn't want Pitt. The Panthers would not add anything to the league from a TV market standpoint, in large part because it already has Penn State that can deliver the Pittsburgh market.
Personally, I would love to see Pitt in the Big Ten. I'm a lifelong Syracuse basketball fan and also would love to see the Cuse in the Big Ten.
But that's just not gonna happen, folks. The league chose Rutgers and Maryland, for goodness sake, over Pitt and Syracuse during the last expansion.
So, the odds of the Big Ten offering Pitt a lottery ticket lifeline are infinitesimal.
People keep saying the Big Ten might expand to 20 teams. Maybe that will happen. But the bottom line is that adding ANY other school would have to make financial sense for the rest of the schools currently in the league.
Let's guess the Big Ten's new TV deal is worth, say, an astounding $1.3 billion a year now that USC and UCLA will be in the mix. Divided by 16 teams, that comes to $81,250,000 annually for each school in TV money alone. If the Big Ten were to add any other school, it would have to be a big enough TV market that could increase the overall deal by at least $81,250,000 annually, otherwise any addition would actually mean less money for current members.
The Pittsburgh TV market ain't gonna do that.
Very few programs are in a market that will do that. So, I wouldn't be surprised if the Big Ten stands pat at 16 teams, unless ...
NOTRE DAME
The biggest fish in the pond in this entire discussion, for college football as a whole and also when it comes to Pitt's future.
If the Fighting Irish decide to finally give up their independence and join the ACC in football, it would save the conference. And saving the conference would mean giving Pitt a great home for the foreseeable future.
Because if Notre Dame joins the ACC, then you'd have to think Clemson also would stay in the ACC.
This is absolutely the best-case scenario for Pitt.
But ... I just can't see it.
First of all, I don't think Notre Dame even wants to give up its independence. And secondly, if the Fighting Irish did that, the Big Ten would be a better fit than the ACC.
CLEMSON
What if Notre Dame does not join the ACC? Well, then my belief is that Clemson has to get out of the league to protect its own future, and join the SEC. (Yes, the Big Ten could conceivably be an option, too, but the SEC is a more natural fit.)
If the Tigers want to remain an elite college football program, they cannot sit by and watch Big Ten and SEC teams making $80 million or more a year in TV money, while they're stuck in the $40 million range through the ACC's deal.
It wouldn't take long before Clemson would fall way behind in the spending arms race, and those folks down there know it.
Now, what about the ACC's grant of rights deal that guarantees each school's TV money through 2036 would go to the conference, even if the school leaves for another league? Look, this is a legal issue that could keep Clemson in the ACC. But if the school truly wants to, it could either buy out its TV contract for some crazy amount of money or look for some legal loophole.
Clemson has to figure that there is so much money that could be made by joining the SEC that it has to be strongly considering any scenario that would help it leave the ACC.
GIVE 'EM MORE
As we discussed in our podcast on all of this below, one way the ACC could entice Notre Dame and/or Clemson would be to give them a bigger share of the pie with regards to TV money and other revenue.
It might be a slap in the face to some other ACC schools, but hey, if it keeps the conference alive and well, then you gotta do what you gotta do.
NO CLEMSON OR ND
This would be really, really bad for the ACC. But not necessarily a death blow.
The conference could still exist (more on how in the next segment), but you'd truly have to wonder if the league would be able to remain part of the highest level of college football.
An ACC without Clemson or Notre Dame might be relegated to second-class citizenship by fans, media and, most importantly, TV networks. So while teams might still call the ACC home, their chances of competing in the spending arms race would be done.
ACC MERGER
This is a very likely scenario, because I believe the only way the ACC survives as a major player in college football is to make a big splash by adding a bunch of other big-name programs.
The Big 12 is interested in Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado, per a CBS Sports report Tuesday. That would leave the likes of Oregon and Washington as potential ACC targets.
Again, keeping Clemson would be key in all of this. Keeping Florida State and, maybe to a lesser extent Miami, also would be important.
But if the ACC wants to survive and thrive in a sport dominated by the Big Ten and SEC, it would need to have as many big-name programs as it can find.
From Pitt's perspective, staying in an ACC that has Clemson, Florida State, Oregon, Washington, North Carolina, Virginia and others would keep the Panthers in the discussion when it comes to major-college football programs.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO
If the ACC can't get Notre Dame, loses Clemson and then also fails to attract Oregon and Washington, well, that could be all she wrote. Because the remaining members of the ACC would be in full-fledged panic mode with regards to self preservation, and thereby would be desperate to do anything and everything they could to survive.
Again, this is not a knock on the fine folks at Pitt, the school's football tradition or the fan base. But the bottom line in this scenario is that Pitt may not really be all that attractive to any major conference if all that's left is the Big Ten, SEC and some massive Big 12.
In this scenario, Pitt may have to join forces with a whole bunch of other programs -- think Syracuse, Boise State, Cincinnati, Wake Forest, Oregon State, Washington State, etc. -- and form a conference that would be considered second tier in every way, especially financially.
Instead of sitting at the grownup table for the holiday meal, all of those schools would be relegated to the kids' table, to be blunt.
MY EXPECTATION
I really hope the ACC finds a way to continue to exist, regardless of what Notre Dame and Clemson do.
My hunch is that Notre Dame will join the Big Ten at some point -- it still could take five years or more for all we know -- because that has always seemed like a natural destination when push comes to shove.
I also think Clemson will join the SEC at some point. Again, a more natural fit. But ... if the ACC gives Clemson a sweetheart deal, it could be enough to keep the Tigers.
If Pitt can remain in whatever is left of the ACC -- one that expands in order to fight for its survival -- then that still could be a good home for the long haul. Not as good of a home as it is now, because the ACC certainly would be diminished by losing Clemson and not adding Notre Dame, but enough of a home to keep the Panthers competing in major college football.
If you have any other scenarios or hopes, post them in the comments. And check out our podcast discussion on all of this below.
