Work for the amateur draft takes months of field work, scouting and preparation. Now comes the last part: Getting in the room and figuring out who the Pirates will pick fourth overall when the first round happens on July 16 in Los Angeles.
That first in-person meeting to go through the board and narrow down who the pick will be will probably start Thursday, according to Ben Cherington.
“The board is ranked virtually through the course of the spring, and it goes live where we get in the room and we'll have a lot of work to do to fine-tune it,” Cherington said on the field at PNC Park Saturday. “But we've got a decent idea of who's at the top of the board. It’s probably [fewer] than 10 names, but it's certainly more than four.”
Unlike last year, where the Pirates had the first overall pick and were able to grab catcher Henry Davis and a handful of prep players on over-slot deals, they’re at the mercy of what the three teams picking ahead of them will do. The Orioles, Diamondbacks and Rangers will pick ahead of the Pirates, meaning we probably aren’t going to get much clarity of what their draft strategy is going to be until they are actually on the clock.
Cherington said he feels this is a strong high school class, and while multiple reports have said the Pirates are looking at collegiate hitters, he says they aren’t targeting one specific type of player.
And while Cherington did not discuss it, this is a position-player heavy class. Baseball America does not have a pitcher in their top 10 draft prospects, and MLB Pipeline as only one at No. 10 (right-hander Brock Porter). The old adage is to grow the pitching and buy the hitting, but it’s hard to see anyone in the top five or so picks drafting a pitcher. The Pirates will pick again at No. 36 as a competitive balance pick and No. 41 in the second round, so they will have a couple more cracks to get pitching. Don’t forget, Anthony Solometo and Bubba Chandler were taken in the second and third rounds last year, and they were two of the highest-rated prospects in that class. It’s not a necessity to take a pitcher in the first-round.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at a handful of players the Pirates have been linked to in the draft, and a couple who could also fit the bill of the type of player they could pick.
3B Cam Collier, Chipola Junior College, Fla.
I don’t believe there has been a mock draft released by a major publication that doesn’t have the Pirates selecting Brooks Lee or Collier. Collier has actually been the trendier pick as we near draft day, for what it’s worth.
I’ve heard from multiple people that the best comp for Collier is Ke’Bryan Hayes. His dad, Lou Collier, played parts of eight major-league seasons, so he has the pedigree. He has one of the best arms of any position player in this class and projects as a good fielder. He has good hit tools, and perhaps most importantly when you are seriously considering drafting a 17-year-old kid, a really good head on his shoulders. Whether it’s Davis, Nick Gonzales, Quinn Priester or any of their recent first-round picks, the Pirates put a ton of stock in work ethic and maturity with their first picks. It’s a lot of responsibility and pressure, and they want to make sure the player is up for the challenge. Collier would appear so.
Collier also participated in the Cape Cod League, where he held his own despite being one of the youngest players there. The Pirates’ 2020 draft class consisted mostly of Cape Cod League standouts, so that could be another point in his favor.
Collier is ranked 8th overall by Baseball America, but I wouldn’t anticipate much of a discount for signing him despite what would be perceived by many as a minor reach. Maybe a couple bucks under-slot to throw at someone in rounds 3-11.
There’s always a risk drafting prep players because they’re years away and haven’t faced the same level of competition as their collegiate counterparts, but Collier seems like a safer bet than most.
SS Brooks Lee, California Polytechnic State University
I imagine there were a few eyerolls from readers seeing the Pirates connected to another shortstop given their middle infield depth in the farm system. Don’t fixate on that. Lee could move if necessary, and what truly matters is his bat.
Had his dad not coached at Cal Poly, Lee probably would have gone pro in 2019, when Baseball America ranked him as the No. 38 draft prospect. Now, he’s the No. 2 prospect according to that publication, with them raving about his bat, giving a rare 70 grade for his hit tool (based on the 20-80 scouting scale). He has the potential to be a switch-hitting, top-half of the order hitter, and given his track record at Cal Poly and him clobbering Cape Cod League pitching in 2021, he just might be the best hitter in the draft.
And while the Pirates aren’t openly saying they are looking specifically at college hitters, their last two first-round picks, Gonzales and Davis, fit that bill. Lee could make it a hat trick.
The only concern, according to Baseball America, is his health, citing back and hamstring injuries, starting back in his high school days. If he stays on the field, he’s arguably the best college player in this draft. His 1.125 OPS and 15 home runs in 58 games this season will back that up.
SS Cole Young, North Allegheny HS, Pa.
How about a sleeper? I’ve heard during this whole high school season that Young is better than most draft boards would suggest. That’s impressive, considering Young is ranked 14th overall by Baseball America.
Young is a pure hitter, one of the best in this class. The other tools are somewhere between fine to above average, but if you like him, you like the left-handed swing and his ability to hit the ball to all fields. He’ll turn 19 soon, and at 5-11, 179 lbs., he definitely still has some growing to do. When he does, it shouldn’t force him off of shortstop.
Young provides an interesting opportunity depending on what his bonus demands would be. The No. 4 overall pick carries a slot bonus of $7,002,100. Based on where he is on prospect charts and mock drafts, he’d probably earn a payday of somewhere between $4-5 million. If he would be willing to take that same bonus with the Pirates, that could free up a couple million for later picks.
The Pirates will pick at 36th and 44th overall. There will definitely be highly rated prep pitchers still available then. If the Pirates could pick up a couple of them with that money saved, they could have another wave of highly-rated pitchers right behind Solometo and Chandler. That’s tempting, but it’s only an option if the Pirates feel Young is a good enough player to be selected so high. After all, if this rebuild goes well, they won’t pick this high again anytime soon. This might be the last time they have their choice of top five prospects.
OTHER PLAYERS THAT FIT THE MOLD
C Kevin Parada, Georgia Tech
There’s a really obvious reason why the Pirates wouldn’t want to draft Parada. He’s a catcher, and the Pirates selected Davis first overall last year. His hit and power tools are probably good enough to move over to first base, but probably not elite enough to warrant being taken so early as a first baseman.
Still, can you argue with a .361/.453/.709 slash line, especially at just age 20? It may be a lazy comp, but from a pure skills standpoint, Parada’s best contemporary is probably Davis.
Had the Pirates not drafted Davis, Parada would make a ton of sense, but the organization already feels they have their catcher of the future.
OF Druw Jones, Wesleyan HS, Norcross, Ga.
Arguably the top high school outfield prospect entering the draft since Byron Buxton, Jones will probably be off the board by the time the Pirates pick. With that said, Marcelo Mayer was considered the best player available in last year’s draft, and he fell to the Red Sox at No. 4. Jones is probably the better, more exciting prospect, though, so don’t get your hopes up.
Jones is the total package. He’s the son of former Braves All-Star and Gold Glover Andruw Jones, has five tools and his .570 with 13 homers, 32 stolen bases and a 1.702 OPS in his senior season. He’ll immediately be regarded as one of the top prospects in the game as soon as he is drafted.
OF Elijah Green, IMG Academy, Bradenton, Fla.
At this time last year, Green was considered neck-and-neck with Jones as the top prospect for this draft. Of the two, Jones’ stock rose more, and while there isn’t as much buzz around Greene, he’s still regarded as a top five prospect in this class
The son of former Steeler Eric Green, Elijah might have the most raw power of everyone in this class, but his overall hit tool is more raw than many of the other top hitters this year. He might be a boom-or-bust type player, but the ceiling is ridiculously high. He could go off the board before the Pirates get to their pick.
SS Jackson Holliday, Stillwater HS, Okla.
The son of former All-Star Matt Holliday (are you noticing a theme in this year’s class), the 18-year-old Holliday is still growing into his body, so he’s more of a projectable player. He’s one of the top players in this class, and should be one of the first players taken off the board.
A left-handed hitting shortstop with the potential to have five good tools is definitely appealing. However, Lee is very similar skill set wise while also being a safer bet because he’s a college player, not to mention closer to major-league ready than a prep shortstop.
SS Termarr Johnson, Mays HS, Atlanta
There’s not much to say about Johnson that wasn’t said in the above section with Holliday. The big differences are that Johnson didn’t have an All-Star for a dad, and he trades some speed for a better hitting grade. He’ll probably need to play second or third base in the future, but that’s not a dealbreaker with his hitting profile. But again, Lee seems like a safer bet if you want to go this route.
