The Penguins have five selections in the NHL Draft, July 7-8 in Montreal: First round (21st overall), fourth round (118th overall), fifth round (150th overall), sixth round (182nd overall), and seventh round (214th overall).
What can the past tell us about the odds of those picks panning out for the Penguins?
In 2018, TSN's Scott Cullen conducted a study analyzing all players drafted between 1990 and 2014 and assigned each player a ranking based on the following criteria:
10 - Generational talent
9 - Elite player
8 - First-line forward, top-pair D
7 - Top-six forward, top-four D
6 - Top-nine forward, top-six D
5 - NHL regular, 350+ NHL games
4 - 200+ NHL games
3 - 50-200 NHL games
2 - under 50 NHL games
1 - 10 or fewer NHL games
Using Cullen's data, we can estimate the average impact of a player based on their draft position. We'll take a look at the odds for each selection the Penguins have in the upcoming draft, and take a look at some players throughout history who were selected at that position.
ROUND 1: 21st OVERALL
In Cullen's study, the 21st overall pick had an average rating of 4.72. That puts No. 21 overall picks just on the cusp of being a career NHL regular on average.
Historically, 72% of players drafted at No. 21 between 1990 and 2014 have gone on to play at least 100 games in the NHL. Most of those players (52% of all 21st overall picks) have been fourth-line forwards/third-pairing defensemen or worse. Exactly one in five players picked at No. 21 have gone on to be top-six forwards, top-four defensemen, or No. 1 goaltenders.
Two of the best players to come out of the 21st overall pick throughout history have been Saku Koivu and Tuukka Rask. In the Penguins' case, the best pick No. 21 in franchise history has been Colby Armstrong in 2001. Competition was slim, as the Penguins have only selected 21st overall four times in their history -- 1968, 1970, 2001 and 2019, with the most recent No. 21 pick by the Penguins being Sam Poulin.
ROUND 4: 118th OVERALL
Players drafted between picks No. 114 and 124 had an average rating of 1.8 in Cullen's study, making the average player drafted at this position more of a minor-league player who plays fewer than 50 NHL games in their career. 17.2% of players drafted at this position went on to play more than 100 NHL games.
There are still occasional gems found in this range, with 4.4% of players selected here going on to be top-six forwards, top-four defensemen, or No. 1 goaltenders.
The most notable Penguins to be drafted in this range have been Ryan Malone (115 overall, 1999) and Paul Bissonnette, (121 overall, 2003), suggesting that this is the prime area of the draft for the Penguins to find players with personality.
Around the league, two of the top players to be drafted No. 118 overall have been the Rangers' Vezina-winning goaltender Igor Shesterkin (2014) and Lightning forward Ross Colton (2016).
ROUND 5: 150th OVERALL
Players drafted between picks No. 136 and 150 had an average rating of 1.64 in Cullen's study, making the average player selected here someone who plays between 10 and 50 NHL games in their career. Among this group, 13% of players played more than 100 NHL games.
There's a slight drop off in players who turn out to be top-six forwards, top-four defensemen, or No. 1 goaltenders among this group, with just 2.5% of players picked in this range making that kind of impact.
The most successful player the Penguins have drafted in this range was Jake Muzzin (141 overall, 2007), though Muzzin was never signed by the Penguins and signed with the Kings in free agency. Notable picks who actually played for the Penguins include Paul Stanton (149 overall, 1985) and Dominik Simon (137 overall, 2015).
Notable picks at No. 150 overall around the league include forward Alex Kerfoot (2012) and former forward Mikhail Grabovski (2004).
ROUND 6: 182nd OVERALL
Players drafted between picks No. 171-186 had an average rating of 1.71 in Cullen's study, making the average player selected here someone who plays between 10 and 50 NHL games in their career, though with slightly better results than those of players drafted where the Penguins pick in the previous round. Of players picked in this range, 14.3% played over 100 NHL games.
The amount of players who actually turn into top-six forwards, top-four defensemen, or No. 1 goaltenders decreases though, with only 2% of players picked here going on to have that kind of success.
The two most notable Penguins players picked in this range are Dustin Jeffrey (171 overall, 2007) and Josh Archibald (174 overall, 2011). A notable 182nd overall pick around the league is former defenseman Bruno Gervais.
ROUND 7: 214th OVERALL
Players drafted between picks No. 202-217 had an average rating of 1.66, making the average player selected here someone who plays between 10 and 50 NHL games in their career, showing that there isn't much difference historically when it comes to players picked in the fifth round through the seventh round. The NHL saw 11.8% of players picked in this range go on to play 100 NHL games, with 3.8% of all selections here becoming top-six forwards, top-four defensemen, or No. 1 goaltenders
The Penguins have found some success with picks this late in the draft, including Tom Kostopoulos (204 overall, 1999), Andrew Ference (208 overall, 1997) and Scott Wilson (209 overall, 2011). The Penguins found a late-round gem in this range fairly recently, with Valtteri Puustinen (203 overall, 2019) turning into one of their top forward prospects.
Notable former 214th overall picks around the league have included goaltender Cristobal Huet (2001), forward Kyle Brodziak (2003) and forward Troy Brouwer (2004).
