It was a tale of two vastly different seasons for Evan Rodrigues in 2021-22.
The Penguins' early-season injuries necessitated a larger role for Rodrigues in which he spent quite a bit of time centering the second line. Roughly a quarter of the way through the season, Rodrigues was averaging more ice time than any forward on the Penguins not named Sidney Crosby or Jake Guentzel.
Rodrigues took the opportunity and ran with it. The utility guy who couldn't make a name for himself with the Sabres was suddenly flourishing in a somewhat significant role on a playoff team.
Flourishing might even be underselling it. Rodrigues had never reached double-digits in goals in a season before. He was over halfway there by the conclusion of his 13th game this past season.
The goal-scoring was obviously welcomed, but it felt as if something bigger was going on -- and the energy of it all was impossible to miss every time he skated the puck end-to-end or blasted a one-timer to the back of the net.
There was a growing sense that Rodrigues had officially broken out and become a player who not only deserved to be a lineup mainstay, but a player who could legitimately be relied on as a complement to the other skaters at the top of the lineup. It was a huge development and, right or wrong, his performance at least sparked discussions about whether or not Bryan Rust, who was set to become a free agent at season's end, had become expendable.
How silly those discussions turned out to be.
Overall, Rodrigues had a pretty good season. If you'd been told last September that he would go on to produce career-highs in goals (19), assists (24) and points (43) while suiting up for all 82 games, you would've been ecstatic. Throw in the 58.6% expected goals share and 57.3% shot attempts share the Penguins posted with him on the ice at five-on-five and it's all gravy.
Oh, and his cap hit was a flat $1 million. Extreme value.
Yet, by the end of the season, many were left with a sour taste in their mouths from Rodrigues' performance.
From the start of the season to Jan. 7, Rodrigues scored 1.57 goals per hour and recorded 3.13 points per hour. Those marks had him third and fourth, respectively, among Penguins skaters during that time.
The goals and points weren't just the result of an individual or on-ice shooting percentage bender, either. Rodrigues attempted 18.8 shots per hour while generating 1.42 expected goals per hour. For reference on the latter figure, Guentzel finished the entire season having generated 1.53 expected goals per hour, the best mark of his career by a significant margin.
Here are his stellar on-ice metrics at five-on-five from that timeframe:
• Goals for percentage: 64.3%
• Expected goals for percentage: 64.2%
• Shot attempts for percentage: 62.3%
Those are high-end results regardless of role and context, and the 454 minute sample size was large enough to write off any ideas that the results were nothing more than luck. Certainly not sustainable to that degree forever, but this wasn't a situation of a player being wrongly rewarded.
The confidence oozed from Rodrigues as he commanded the puck and drove play in all three zones with an overwhelmingly positive impact on nearly every game.
For all the offense Rodrigues added, the Penguins were downright staunch defensively when he was on the ice. He doesn't take sole credit, but the Penguins' ability to keep the puck out of the net and limit chances against with Rodrigues was significantly influenced by his conscientious in-zone play and composure to skate pucks out of the zone with possession.
And just as rapidly as he ascended to being a force, he fell off a cliff.
From Jan. 8 through the end of the season, the Penguins were outscored 26-21 (44.7%) with Rodrigues on the ice at five-on-five. They did control 54.1% of the expected goals, which is respectable, but the average goaltending he received combined with his individual scoring droughts wasn't enough for the Penguins to keep their heads above water in actual goals.
Rodrigues' goal-scoring rate dropped by over an entire goal to a lousy 0.33 goals per hour. The frequency of his shots and attempts remained roughly the same, but the quality of those shots dropped significantly to 0.87 expected goals per hour.
By the conclusion of the season Rodrigues had scored five fewer goals than expected, according to Evolving Hockey. He possesses a powerful, crisp shot, but he would maddeningly fire directly into the goalie's crest or manage to get inexplicably robbed.
Part of the drop can be explained by his reduced power play time, but it had more to do with the fact that he stopped attacking the slot and high-danger areas of the ice as frequently, instead opting for many more shots from the perimeter and above the circles.
Prior to the calendar flipping, Rodrigues wanted the puck on his stick as much as possible. As his confidence diminished, he began deferring to teammates and throwing pucks away rather than dictating terms as he did when he was buzzing.
Fatigue had to be a factor to some extent as well. Outside of a 74-game season in 2018-19, Rodrigues never appeared in more than 48 games in a season. He played a total of just 80 games the two seasons prior to this past season. After such heavy usage at the beginning of the season, it's fair to wonder if he was simply worn down.
That said, it's worth noting that Rodrigues had a very strong postseason:
• 7 games
• 3 goals
• 2.92 expected goals
• 5 points
• 45 shot attempts
• 70.2% on-ice expected goals share at five-on-five
Which version of Rodrigues will show up next season?
The answer most likely lies somewhere in the middle, as it tends to do when dealing with polar opposite ends of the spectrum.
It doesn't seem outlandish for Rodrigues to be a 15-goal player with 20-goal upside. Give or take a few goals depending on power play usage, where his one-timer from the left circle is one of his greatest assets.
The great thing about a player like Rodrigues is that even when he's not playing well, he's not killing the team with his ice time. No doubt, he needs to fill the net more frequently than he did in the second half of this past season, but in between those spurts he's still a responsible player, can play up the middle or on the right flank and also kills penalties.
There's serious value in having a player like that with the capability to be a nice source of depth offense.
Evolving Hockey's contract projections have Rodrigues receiving a multi-year deal just north of $3 million per season. If Rodrigues does find a middle ground, he'd be worth every bit and then a little more. If second half Rodrigues shows up, paying several million dollars for a bottom-six play-driving specialist will be a tough pill to swallow.
