North Shore Tavern Mound Visit: Bad swings can bring Cruz's best results

After months of waiting, Oneil Cruz is going to make his return to PNC Park Monday.

The promotion for a top prospect is an exciting moment for any team, but when it comes in the middle of a clear youth movement, it makes it all the more impactful.

"Now's the time we think he can help us," Derek Shelton said Sunday after confirming Cruz was being promoted. "We've talked about a lot of things developmentally. There are still some things we are going to work on, but we think now's the time he's going to help us."

That development journey for Cruz is far from over – like you would expect for any 23-year-old player – but when it was consistently cited as the only reason why Cruz was still in the minors for so long this season when the Pirates were calling up many other prospects, those specific areas of targeted growth get highlighted more. And for a top position player prospect, making sure he swings at the right pitches was one of those areas.

“Consistent focus in the at-bats and good swing decisions all the time are gonna be critical for somebody like that because when he swings at the right pitches, [he does damage],” director of coaching and player development John Baker said earlier this month.

Baker acknowledged right after that Cruz can do some damage when he swings at the wrong pitch, too.

Consider this home run he hit earlier this month for Class AAA Indianapolis:

That was a breaking ball that was sinking fast, with Cruz getting a hold of it at about shin level and ripping it to right.

If you think you’ve seen that swing before, you might be thinking about this homer he hit this spring on a ball at ankle height:

Or maybe you’re thinking about his first major-league home run from his cup of coffee last October:

It isn’t normal for any hitter to keep getting a hold of these pitches at the shins and ankles, let alone one who stands 6’7”. That takes some incredible body control to leverage himself to launch pitches at that depth.

It’s a skill that is going to draw comparisons to other great hitters in this game.

“Just from a physical standpoint, his presence, and the contact that he makes I would say is Giancarlo Stanton back in Miami,” hitting coach Andy Haines said during spring training. “It's just a very similar, impressive physical presence along with the loud, hard contact, I'd say that's the one player at that age that's similar.”

Excusing the fact that Stanton bats right-handed, he’s a good comp for Cruz. He’s a big time power hitter who stands at 6’6”. In fairness, there are only a handful of players who could even potentially be a comp for Cruz. Since the advent of uniform pitch tracking in 2008, there have been only 19 non-pitchers to hit in the majors who were listed at 6'6" or taller.

But here’s the thing with comparing Cruz to Stanton: On pitches that are significantly lower than the strike zone – what Baseball Savant would consider a “chase” or “waste” pitch – Stanton has hit only one major-league home run. Cruz already has one major-league home run in those areas, not counting his spring training shot, his homer in the minors earlier this month or any other ball he’s gotten a hold of that was pitched there.

Being as tall as he is, Cruz is always going to need to be conscious of low pitches. Not every pitcher is going to be able to effectively pound the top part of the zone against him because of his height, but everyone will have some sort of sink or spin to try to get him out there. He’s prone to offer at pitches out of the zone, but to his credit, he’s really cut down on those chases:

The same source that provided that data also pointed out that Cruz’s swinging strike rate on low pitches has decreased steadily, going from 32% in 2019 to 20% in 2021 and 17% this year. Compared to 2019, his last full minor-league season, to now, he’s cut his chases low by a third and his whiffs nearly in half. 

It results in, as of Saturday, a .136 batting average on those pitches below the zone. By itself, that’s not good, but it does look a little better with some context. While not an exact science, I took those 18 tall hitters and looked at their results on low pitches during their careers when there was pitch tracking (2008 and beyond). Nobody does well on those pitches, but Cruz fares better than most:

BASEBALL SAVANT

I’ll reemphasize that’s for all pitches below the strike zone, not just chase or waste pitches. We are comparing minor-league results to major-league but many of the best tall hitters like Stanton and Aaron Judge can get beat low frequently. Cruz loses less frequently there. Not to the point that he should be looking to hit a nine iron every at-bat, but hey, it’s a club he has in his bag.

Now Cruz doesn’t have a flattering ground ball rate (70%) on low pitches, and his 86 mph average exit velocity there is really propped up by just a few hard hit balls, but what’s more important is that he is chasing less frequently there and when he does, the results tend to be more palatable than when other tall hitters make the same mistake. If the Pirates are looking for him to make good swing decisions, he’s been doing that.

And if he makes a bad swing decision, well, he can still wind up on a highlight reel.