NEW YORK -- There was overwhelming melancholy radiating from each of Tristan Jarry, Jake Guentzel, Sidney Crosby and Mike Sullivan following the Penguins' 4-3 overtime loss to the Rangers in Game 7 of the first-round of the Stanley Cup playoffs at Madison Square Garden Sunday night.
Not necessarily because they lost, or even the heartbreaking fashion in which they lost.
But because they knew they deserved a better fate after dominating in possession, territorial play, shot quality -- you name it -- in every game of the series aside from Game 3 ... which they ended up winning anyway.
And that's with Crosby essentially missing a game and a half of the series.
Rickard Rakell played one full game and some change.
Louis Domingue started five games in goal for crying out loud.
That would be a death sentence in most cases, but the Penguins still controlled play, especially at 5-on-5, at nearly unprecedented levels:
JFreshHockey
The Penguins controlled 63% of the expected goals at 5-on-5 this series, per JFreshHockey and the data of TopDownHockey. Not only is that figure the highest of any team to lose a playoff series during the stats era (since 2007-08), it surpassed the Penguins' previous-best playoff series mark of 62.2% in 2016 against the Lightning.
Yet, the Penguins are headed home empty-handed and the Rangers are moving on to face the Hurricanes in the second-round. How could that possibly be?
Well, the obvious is the below .900 goaltending they received. Even considering that, it still feels as if the Penguins let one, or three, slip away.
The goaltending played a part in it, but their failure to maintain leads in each of their three consecutive losses was the biggest factor en route to getting bounced.
Here are the Penguins' win probabilities at various points in Game 5, 6 and 7, via Evolving Hockey:
Game 5 - 90.1% with 5:43 remaining in the second period.
Game 6 - 91% with 15:51 remaining in the second period.
Game 7 - 87.2% with 5:50 remaining in regulation.
Disastrous to let any of those games fall through the cracks, let alone all three.
"Good teams are out there competing," Sullivan sternly told reporters when asked about the Penguins' issues with putting games away. "It's hockey."
In each of those games, the Penguins controlled play for large stretches. In each of those games, they also had minor mistakes that might not matter over a larger sample, but proved fatal in a micro sample, especially in a winner-take-all Game 7:
Just as the Penguins had started to create their best pressure on either side in the first eight minutes of the game, John Marino failed to settle the puck along the wall, springing Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider for a 2-on-1. Tough bounces happen, but he's got to recognize and respect Zibanejad and his momentum in that instance. He's got to stop the puck from hopping over his stick, too. Pin your legs to the boards if necessary, but the puck can't get by you there.
Then there's Marcus Pettersson, who typically thrives denying the opposition's rushes, going full-alligator and sliding across the ice in an attempt to take the cross-ice pass away. Going full-alligator is always a bad idea. It's an especially bad idea when you try and do it against one of the better rush threats in the entire league. That might work against bottom-six competition. Certainly not against Zibanejad.
That was the first goal of the game, though.
How about after the Penguins took a 2-1 lead in the second period and gave their go-ahead goal right back to the Rangers:
That's another unlucky bounce, and by my count, the fourth Rangers goal during the series that banked in off of Mike Matheson and into the Penguins' net. That's also some pretty loose coverage on the weak-side of the ice, allowing K'Andre Miller enough time and space to fire the puck toward traffic at the net.
Notice Jason Zucker motioning, upon the Rangers entering the zone, for either Jeff Carter or Danton Heinen to shift over and take the weak-side of the ice? But ultimately, Carter got caught a bit flat-footed in no man's land, and both Zucker and Heinen converged to the strong-side of the ice.
It's a quick and simple breakdown that probably won't be the end of the world most nights. Game 7s aren't most nights.
Taylor Haase has us covered on what happened with Pettersson and his helmet getting ripped off before the Rangers' goal to tie the game at 3 in the third period.
Let's take a look at what happened as a result of Pettersson leaving the ice:
As soon as Pettersson went off, it broke down the entirety of the Penguins' coverage.
From Teddy Blueger being forced to occupy space at the net-front while Pettersson raced to the bench, to Kris Letang defaulting to the net-front and not marking anyone upon getting there due to the chaotic nature of his shift-start, it was a mess. That's how Zibanejad slipped into a soft spot in the circle to Jarry's left and blistered the puck to the back of the net.
Again, typically not something that would be a back-breaker. In Game 7, it means throwing away the second-round.
To top off the blown lead, there's Brock McGinn, doing whatever this is during the opening minutes of overtime, forcing him to take a penalty:
Gain the blue line with possession? Check.
Use your body to separate the puck from pressure? Check.
Get off the wall and toward the middle of the ice? Check.
Stickhandle near the blue line like you're Patrick Kane with no safety valve behind you? Check.
I don't know what possessed McGinn to get away from his straight-ahead game that has worked to minimal effect, anyway, but it put the Penguins on the penalty-kill that ended up losing them the game, and their season:
Between giving Artemi Panarin that much ice to work with, and Kreider rag-dolling Letang right in Jarry's grill, it was all the Rangers needed to complete their third-straight comeback and advance to the second-round.
Just from these clips, it might not seem as if the Penguins played all that well. The truth is, outside of these clips, there were maybe a handful or two of other moments throughout the entire game that were overt issues. It just so happened that the Rangers were incredibly opportunistic.
Sometimes, it's just a perfect storm. Like Sullivan said, it's hockey.
He talks so much about managing the momentum swings of the game, but the Penguins' failure to do so in Games 5-7 sealed their fate of failing to win a playoff round for the fourth consecutive season.
