COLUMBUS, Ohio -- With a lone game remaining before the Penguins' regular season concludes, a troubling number of question marks continue to stack with little time to find the answers.
The Penguins have won only four of their 12 contests in April. During that time, they're barely keeping their heads above the breakeven point in goals, expected goals and shot attempts at five-on-five. Throw special teams into the mix and they're below water in all three categories. No matter how you cut it, they look much closer to a team primed for another first-round exit in the postseason than one that could make any sort of meaningful run.
That isn't to say they can't advance a round for the first time since the 2018 postseason. Even at the age of 34, it remains tough to bet against Sidney Crosby. Kris Letang has aged as gracefully as any modern-day defenseman and continues to perform at a high level. Jake Guentzel blossomed into one of the very best offensive wingers in the game. Then there's Evgeni Malkin scoring at a 38-goal pace in a half-season of work fresh off knee surgery.
The star-power, though not as dominant as a decade ago, is prevalent. If they all find the top of their game simultaneously while getting adequate goaltending from Casey DeSmith -- which he's provided in four games since Tristan Jarry suffered a broken foot -- there won't be a whole lot to ask of the depth pieces, but they'll still need to find tangible ways to contribute. That's been a colossal struggle through the latter stages of the season.
For any team to go the distance, they have to capture lightning in a bottle. Get in and anything can happen. But right now, the Penguins are scrambling to even so much as find a bottle while the rest of the Eastern Conference is raising theirs to the storm above.
Several issues have hampered the Penguins down the stretch, most notably their diminishing effectiveness at limiting the opposition's attack. That largely stems from wasted possessions at the other end of the ice and poorly executed breakouts that keep them hemmed in their zone.
The Penguins' transition is most dangerous when they are cutting in and out of lanes and using speed differentials, along with quick, precise passing to ultimately draw the defense out of position or catch them napping. Lately, it has felt like nearly every skater's priority has been to get the puck off their stick as quick as possible to let someone else do the work:
Jason Zucker made a strong play to hang onto the puck while using his body to separate it from the defender upon entering the offensive-zone, but without sufficient puck support, he promptly flung the puck to a vacant corner in hopes of a linemate hunting it down. That didn't happen.
Even when Penguins skaters are hanging onto pucks to gain the offensive blue line instead of playing chip-and-chase (which opponents are starting to sit on), they're frequently relinquishing possession in favor of 50/50 pucks that are more like 20/80 pucks due to their unwillingness to battle for them on a consistent basis.
The Penguins managed to regain possession only for Malkin to blindly ice the puck when he should have been looking to make a play. They cannot continue deferring at every roadblock. That holds especially true for Malkin.
I fully understand that Mike Sullivan's system is grueling over 82 games, but sequences like the one above reek of playing reactionary hockey. He constantly preaches the importance of managing the puck, yet that seems to be more of something that comes in spurts rather than the standard they set earlier in the season:
It's not just that John Marino turned the puck over in his zone, it's that he had ample time to make a clean play to a wide-open outlet for an easy exit, but rushed a flimsy, off the mark pass. The ensuing attempt from the Oilers was of the low-danger variety, but the sequence further displays the team-wide trend of getting the puck off their stick as quick as possible to let someone else worry about it.
How did trepidation sneak into a team that played with such force and conviction four months ago?
Here, Marino made a nice play under pressure and actually hit his outlet, Brock McGinn, who fluttered the puck barely far enough to get out of the zone instead of skating or making an area pass to the middle of the ice where he had multiple teammates. Why? Well, the powerful force of 5' 8" Kailer Yamamoto was lining him up:
There's plenty to harp on for the puck ending up in the back of the net, but it all ties back to McGinn's failed exit. In what world is chipping the puck directly to the opposition in the neutral-zone an effective strategy? He was so concerned with getting hit that he didn't recognize Connor McDavid peeling off of him and the small opening of ice in front of him. Even if you want to argue there's no room to skate, he's got to be able to get the puck to his backhand and put a pass in space for a streaking linemate. Neither forechecker in his vicinity had their stick in the passing lane.
From there, the change of possession allowed McDavid to regroup and build speed with a ton of ice to work with. It ended the same way it typically does.
The lack of cohesion and structure among the players has been uninspiring. I have a tough time believing they're capable of flipping some switch for game one. They're not good enough to do that. You'd imagine a higher gear would have been established by this stage of the campaign.
Sullivan hasn't exactly been on his A-game down the stretch, either. Quite frankly, his lineup combos and in-game management have been extremely suspect. Both are nearly as concerning as the players' on-ice performance.
The elephant in the room is Jeff Carter. Despite the team's worst share of on-ice goals (43.4%) and expected goals (49.1%) at five-on-five this season, Sullivan remains adamant that Carter be a big part of the club's game plan. It's bewildering to watch Carter hop over the boards for a free skate game after game, yet his role and deployment doesn't change.
Sullivan is way smarter than me and has access to information I don't. That doesn't make him infallible, and I simply see no evidence -- by video or data -- that even remotely suggests Carter is capable of centering a line that won't spend a majority of its time chasing the puck around defensively.
Carter's success on faceoffs this season (56.7%) is obviously highly valued. He could continue to take draws while playing the right wing. I think he has the capability to make a much better impact with less skating and defensive responsibility. The idea of Teddy Blueger or Evan Rodrigues centering the third line sounds far more enticing than letting Carter sink everything he touches in that role.
Additionally, Sullivan has been utilizing Carter as his extra attacker with the goalie pulled in late-game situations. Sure, he can get to the front of the net and bang home some garbage. He did it on the power play against the Oilers on Tuesday night. But when Rickard Rakell, who has the size to do the same thing, along with the raw offensive skill to make slick passes and wire the puck, is collecting dust on the bench, it doesn't add up.
My initial thought was that the decision was made to get Rakell out there when the big guns couldn't be, but Sunday against the Flyers, Sullivan followed up the first six-man empty net unit with a line of Zucker-Blueger-McGinn. Rakell nowhere to be found.
The decision to remove Rakell from the top line was also a curious one. That line only scored nine goals in 90 minutes together at five-on-five. Due to come back to Earth, absolutely. But the quality of chances they were creating justified a longer look regardless of the goals. Meanwhile, Rakell has shown little chemistry with Malkin at five-on-five after 100 minutes together.
Bryan Rust is mired in a slump but has proven to gel and produce alongside Malkin. Their results together this season have been strong. Malkin needs the boost Rust provides at five-on-five. Ideally that would be Rakell, but that hasn't come to fruition and they're out of time to continue hoping for something to work when options that have worked are readily available.
Speaking of underutilizing what has worked, what does Danton Heinen have to do to see the ice more at full-strength? For a team that has struggled to put the puck in the net at five-on-five, you'd think the skater with the second-most five-on-five goals on the team (15) would be out there a bit more. He rarely sniffs the ice with the Penguins down late in games.
It's not as if he's only scoring and hurting the team everywhere else. His on-ice expected goals share of 59.2% at five-on-five tops all Penguins skaters. Even though McGinn skated on Malkin's left flank Tuesday, Heinen should be the one to take that spot whether or not Zucker ends up missing time with an injury.
Sullivan's recent usage of Kasperi Kapanen also makes little sense. Kapanen had been playing so poorly that he earned a healthy-scratch on Sunday, but then found himself not only back in the lineup Tuesday, but right back to the second power play unit ... and out on the ice with the net empty. He nearly scored on his own goal from the other end of the ice:
What has Kapanen done to deserve those opportunities that Heinen hasn't? The inconsistencies in Sullivan's decisions and process have been highly questionable. And I think the world of him as a coach. There aren't a handful that I'd pick over him. But the Penguins are not good enough to overcome a coach that isn't doing everything to optimize his team's lineup and deployment.
Sullivan frequently says that the coaching staff puts lineups together based on what they believe gives them the best chance to win. Lately, that certainly hasn't seemed like the case.
