The Steelers didn't eliminate their need for a franchise quarterback by signing Mitch Trubisky in free agency, even if they did find their projected starter for the 2022 season. But just like I said with the potential of looking at Lewis Cine at safety in the first round is still reasonable after signing Terrell Edmunds, the same rule applies if the Steelers have a chance to select Malik Willis in the first round of the NFL Draft Thursday.
Willis projects as the top quarterback of the class because of his raw abilities that jump out on tape. He's got a cannon of an arm, which maybe the most powerful of the class, and has the athleticism to pick up speed quickly and make defenders miss. Pro Football Focus charted him for forcing 146 missed tackles during his two years at Liberty, which demonstrates how he doesn't just have straight-line speed, but the necessary athleticism to use that speed to create plays with his feet when the ball is in his hands. 89 of those 146 missed tackles came in the 2021 season, which PFF acknowledged was more than anyone, including running backs and wide receivers, college football.
He's also not just a runner, as he makes sure to combine his arm talent with his athleticism on the field to give defenses headaches when they don't contain him and a receiver breaks loose in the secondary. If you want to get an essence of what plenty of Willis' highlights look like, watch this 30-yard pass when he took on the free defender on an overload blitz, made him miss by stepping up in the pocket, then gathered himself to roll to his right. Once he broke the pocket, his eyes were still downfield and he let off pass that hit his receiver in stride going down the sidelines for a big gain:
That's the version of Willis that excites scouts, coaches and execs around the NFL. If that play could be channeled into consistency, Willis would make a passing offense very dangerous if defenses had to worry about a quarterback with that kind of athleticism, arm strength and accuracy.
But that last part, the accuracy, has been one of Willis' biggest struggles. After transferring from Auburn to Liberty in 2020, his tape as a junior starter showed erratic passes being a serious problem that was an expected factor when watching him. Although his accuracy issues weren't solved in 2021, he did take a significant step forward by improving his composure and footwork in his drop, setup and throwing mechanics.
That progress helped him complete 207 for 339 passes for 2,857 yards, 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 2021.
One element that Willis has always had was his cannon of an arm that he seems excited to show off when he thinks he has a deep safety beat. He was never afraid to let the ball fly, but his junior 2020 season made it look like he needed receivers to be college-open with larger passing windows when he wanted to make a long throw. He could always get the ball there, but putting it in the right spot was a real challenge.
That challenge looked like less of a burden in 2021, as he seemed to not just put the ball in catchable windows for receivers, but hit them in stride as well. Watch this deep ball from Willis when he knew he had his receiver behind the deep safety. You can see the ball doesn't hang too much for the safety to adjust and hit the receiver in the hands 49 yards downfield:
That's an example of real deep ball talent.
Willis is also the best at hitting those types of passes in this class. PFF charts what they call "bit time throws," which they define as "a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window." Willis' career percentage on big time throws was 10.7 percent, first of his class, and his 2021 big time throw percentage was 11 percent, which PFF acknowledges as the third-highest such rate they've charted for a quarterback in a single season--ever.
But there's also plenty of drawbacks with Willis. That accuracy still isn't nearly as consistent as it needs to be a starter in the NFL. Several of his intermediate passes can be off the mark enough that they weren't crushing plays all the time at Liberty, but would be preyed upon for turnover opportunities in the NFL.
And that doesn't begin to address his struggles to properly look off defenders while reading defenses. Make no mistake, Willis can, and does, read defenses. He's a student of the game and knows offensive concepts and how they can clash with defensive schemes. But there were far too many times Willis would get caught staring down receivers instead of keeping his eyes on where defenders were, or rotating through his progressions to keep lurking defensive backs from locking onto his true targets.
This would become evident when he faced more power five programs like Ole Miss. Against Mississippi, Willis threw three interceptions and no touchdowns. The worst of those three came when he was trying to get his team back in the game and fell right into a trap. Watch this fake receiver screen that turned into a wheel route down the sideline behind a deep crossing pattern. Notice where Willis' eyes are throughout the play and how he never checked the back safety, who was all over the designed wheel route down the sideline and would intercept the pass:
On plenty of Willis' biggest throws, you see him staring down his man, telegraphing his throw. That will quickly be a problem in the NFL if it's not improved. Even on that last play when he didn't stare at one particular receiver, he needed to at least check the back safety and could've tried to hit the crossing option over the middle.
Make no mistake, Willis can add that to his game. But it's something that he will have to develop in the NFL and a good reason why he should probably sit for a year wherever he's drafted and work on improving his mechanics and practices. Watch this deep pass he put up against Old Dominion, and you can see him, albeit briefly, hold the safety in the middle of the field with his eyes before launching a deep ball to a receiver who hit the seam in a zone defense with a vertical go route:
That's nothing masterful, but it's at least his attempt at doing the very thing he needs to add to his game.
All these factors make Willis a project, but one who's ceiling is high enough that he would be worthy of a first round pick, including the Steelers' at 20th overall. But he's arguably the top quarterback in this class, and could easily be taken by a team who's desperate for a quarterback like the Panthers, the Falcons, the Seahawks or the Saints. He would be worth trading up for, but only for a modest payout of maybe two day-three picks along with the exchange of first round picks, as the talent available in the top 20 players the Steelers could naturally have by staying home. If the Steelers can land Willis, he'll sit behind Trubisky and learn for a year, but he would be their projected future and their first real attempt at an heir to Ben Roethlisberger's role as franchise quarterback.
