COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Rather than overreacting to a six-game series in which Tristan Jarry surrendered 21 goals during the 2021 postseason, Ron Hextall expressed his confidence in the netminder and rolled into the following campaign with Jarry as the Penguins' number one guy in goal.
That isn't to suggest Hextall didn't snoop around alternative options -- he most certainly did -- but with the Penguins up against the salary cap, it simply made more sense to stick with the cost-controlled option that likely had a higher ceiling than anyone on the market.
Jarry's eventual selection to the All-Star Game solidified Hextall's decision.
The Penguins have given Jarry quite the workload this season as only four goaltenders across the NHL have spent more time between the pipes. The inconsistent play of Casey DeSmith hasn't given them much of a choice.
Though the Penguins are comfortably sitting third in the Metropolitan Division, their .524 points percentage (10-9-2) since Feb. 17th is the lowest of any NHL team currently holding a playoff position.
Part of that can be attributed to the brutal schedule the Penguins have endured, but at least some of it can be chalked up to a drop in performance from Jarry.
In his first 27 starts of the season, Jarry surrendered three or more goals in a game six times. In 26 starts since, he has surrendered three or more goals in a game 14 times.
And no, it's not entirely on the Penguins' defense in front of him, even if they haven't been nearly as staunch as they were during the earlier stages of the season.
Through Jarry's first 27 starts, the Penguins were giving up 2.55 expected goals against per hour in all situations, good for third-best in the NHL. That figure sits at 2.86 in his following 26 starts, putting them ninth in the NHL over that span.
Accounting for the uptick in chances against, Jarry has still given up six more goals than expected of him since his 28th start of the season on Jan. 13, per Evolving Hockey. That's quite a difference from the 13.4 goals Jarry saved based on the quality of chances he faced prior to that point.
Here's a look at his cumulative goals saved above expected (GSAx) on the season, where you'll notice an overall downward trend since he peaked at nearly 15 goals saved above expected in his 33rd appearance:
Aside from a few recent games, Jarry's play hasn't necessarily been sinking the Penguins, he just hasn't been able to mask the Penguins' secondary scoring issues by standing on his head like he did for stretches at the end of 2021.
There's no denying that the Penguins wouldn't be where they are in the standings without Jarry's excellent play earlier in the campaign.
There's also no denying that the Penguins will need him to be considerably sharper if they hope to make some noise in the playoffs.
Is Jarry's hefty workload catching up with him? Here are his total games played by season since his first year in the WHL:
- 2011-12 (WHL): 14
- 2012-13 (WHL): 28
- 2013-14 (WHL): 84
- 2014-15 (WHL): 60
- 2015-16 (AHL): 36
- 2016-17 (NHL/AHL): 46
- 2017-18 (NHL/AHL): 45
- 2018-19 (NHL/AHL): 49
- 2019-20 (NHL): 34
- 2020-21 (NHL): 45
- 2021-22 (NHL): 55
Jarry saw the ice a ton in 2013-14 as he backstopped the Edmonton Oil Kings to a championship, but at the professional level he never appeared in 50 or more games before this season.
I think it's fair to suggest his heavy usage this season has been a factor in his unspectacular play of late. That said, there's reason to believe it's a bit more complicated.
The Penguins' system is predicated on being aggressive and taking risks to exhaust the opposition with their forecheck and to extend possession in the offensive zone.
When they're clicking, there's not a lot teams can do to overcome wave after wave of relentless, calculated pressure.
When they're off, pinches and angles that aren't executed with the utmost precision leave them susceptible to rush attacks the other way. Unfortunately for the Penguins, stopping the rush has been one of Jarry's biggest weaknesses.
Earlier this season I wrote about Jarry's poor performances in the shootout (which have since improved). His tendency to sink into his crease too quickly allowed oncoming shooters to pick him apart.
Even though he has cleaned that blemish in the shootout, it isn't a rarity to see the bad habit creep in during regular game action:
Against the Lightning, the Penguins got backed into their own zone and quickly coughed up the puck as Pierre-Edouard Bellemare corralled a slick pass and raced toward the goal. The play unfolded in a snap of a finger, and Jarry almost seemed caught off guard by how quickly it happened. Instead of remaining at the top of his crease to cut down Bellemare's shooting angle, Jarry sunk just enough for Bellemare to open him up with a quick move before sliding the puck five-hole.
Of 57 NHL netminders that have played at least 1,000 minutes this season, Jarry ranks 31st with a save percentage of .817 on high-danger attempts against, per Natural Stat Trick. Jarry has fared very well against low-danger and medium-danger attempts, but there's some room for improvement on the ones that matter most.
One of the best ways to find the back of the net is to get the goalie moving side-to-side in their crease with cross-ice passes. At times this season, Jarry has immensely struggled when forced to move horizontally while facing rush attacks:
In the Penguins' most recent game against the Avalanche, Mike Matheson was swarmed at the offensive blue line and failed to get the puck through pressure, sparking a counter-attack the other way. Having lost his stick in the process, Matheson was essentially rendered useless trying to defend the ensuing two-on-one. Logan O'Connor smartly passed cross-ice, right around Matheson, to Darren Helm who was streaking up the slot.
Helm beat Jarry with relative ease because Jarry couldn't get squared up to him. Generally, goalies want to keep the puck in line with their belly button. Here, Jarry's initial push across put his feet at a crooked angle into open ice instead of head-on with Helm. On bang-bang plays, he won't be afforded the luxury of making a second push to properly set his feet.
His lateral footwork needs to be crispier. So does his anticipation on odd-man breaks:
Don't get me wrong, that's a gorgeous feed from Nino Niederreiter, but Jarry had enough time to move across and square up Jesper Fast on his feet rather than dropping his knee to try and get a more forceful lateral push. Before the puck even ended up on Fast's stick, Jarry had already given away the upper-half of the net. Not to mention he was floundering in the heart of his crease when he should have been out on top of it. Most NHL skaters aren't missing with that much twine to shoot at.
None of this is to paint doom and gloom for Jarry or the Penguins, but it is something to be aware of. Jarry even so much as performing above league-average has been colossal for this club. They don't need him to be Igor Shesterkin, but they will need him to recapture some of his early-season swagger to provide a level of stability that allows for their high-risk, high-reward style of play.
