CLEARWATER, Fla. – With a 5-1 loss to the Phillies at DayCare Ballpark on Tuesday afternoon, the Pirates have concluded their abbreviated spring training.
Next up, their 136th regular season opener on Thursday.
Before the league’s championship season commences, let’s look at some reasons to be optimistic, and pessimistic, about the upcoming 162 game campaign.
REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
1. LET’S REINTRODUCE YOU TO
MITCH KELLER, KE’BRYAN HAYES
From 2018-2021, the Pirates’ top prospects were Keller those first two years and Hayes the latter two, but with the exception of Hayes’ first month in the majors in 2020, neither has lived up to the hype thus far.
Both are in a good position to change that in 2022.
Keller overhauled his throwing mechanics and arm action this winter, resulting in his fastball consistently hitting the upper-90s. He also has a new slurve, giving him three breaking pitches that can get hitters out and play better because of that extra velocity.
“Guys are so geared up for upper-90s that it makes it a little harder to sit back on a curveball or take your time on a curveball or recognize it,” Keller explained. “So it makes it a lot tougher for them and gives me more leeway here and there.”
For Hayes, a wrist injury bothered him more than he let on during the regular season, though he feels better now and has had it cleared by doctors. He revealed to me earlier this spring that he adopted a new two-handed follow-through for his swing to try to take some pressure off that left wrist and try to prevent it from happening again. Even not at 100% and playing only 96 games, Hayes was still worth 2.6 WAR last season, and an extra win over the league average player when taking playing time into account.
Derek Shelton said Tuesday that Hayes had a really good workout that day, all signs are pointing to him being good to go for opening day.
If both play to their potential, the Pirates could have another All-Star or award winner on their hand. Speaking of which…
2. BRYAN REYNOLDS
IS STILL HERE, RIGHT?
It’s been an eventful spring for Reynolds, who is going to an arbitration case this month.
That’s the most pressing issue around him currently, but perhaps just as concerning is how often his name popped up in trade rumors. While the Pirates continue to do due diligence by listening, they didn’t have any serious interest in trading him.
With three years of control after 2022 remaining, Reynolds gives the Pirates a bonafide all-star this year and someone they can continue to build around for the future. That arbitration case could get messy, but Ben Cherington is confident that it won’t affect their relationship.
3. ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN
You know why they play 162, right? Because anything can happen.
And don’t tell this team that you’re counting them out.
“With us being so young, a lot of people are going to take us lightly,” Hayes told me. “But even in spring, you could see what those young guys could do. We’re looking forward to it. I think we’re going to surprise a lot of people.”
REASONS FOR PESSIMISM
1. SOME OF THIS TEAM'S BEST
AREN'T ON THE OPENING DAY TEAM
After emphasizing revamping their farm system the last two years, it’s understandable that a good chunk of the Pirates’ next potential playoff team’s core is still in the middle or lower levels of the system. Still, some of the team’s top prospects are going to start in Class AAA rather than the majors, most notably Oneil Cruz.
Cherington and Shelton have cited “development opportunities” and doing what they believe is best for the player for why Cruz will start in Class AAA while many other top prospects across the league make opening day teams. The only development opportunity they have publicly cited is defense, both to improve at shortstop and be more versatile in the field.
Diego Castillo did make the opening day team after homering six times and rising to every challenge presented, including taking reps in the outfield, but he and potentially Miguel Yajure will be the only top 30 prospects to make the trip west to St. Louis. Cruz, Roansy Contreras, Travis Swaggerty, Canaan Smith-Njigba, Jack Suwinski, Rodolfo Castro and Tucupita Marcano will all reach the majors at some point this season, which could be one of the best groups of in-season promotions in the league. But for the start of the season, it doesn’t feel like the Pirates are fielding their best possible team out of the gate.
2. IS THERE ENOUGH PITCHING?
Keller’s offseason workouts blew up social media and that improved stuff translated terrifically into games this spring. Having him pitch up to his potential would be a huge boost to the rotation.
After him, there are a lot of question marks? José Quintana, Heath Hembree and Zach Thompson were their only notable additions this winter, the first two of whom both made trips to the waiver wire last season. JT Brubaker was solid for the first half of last year but tailed off quickly. He made adjustments to his prep work and is experimenting with how he uses his fastballs, but until he plays a full 162, that question will remain. Bryse Wilson is only 24 and lost weight this winter, resulting in better body movement and more ticks on his fastball, but his ERA last year – and in his major-league career – was in the mid-5s.
That’s not to mention the bullpen, who don’t have many holdovers from the first-half of last year, outside of David Bednar and Chris Stratton. Roles and roster construction should be fluid, but that can only go so far.
3. WHAT IS THE PATH?
Let’s look at some best case scenarios. Reynolds isn’t traded and is once again an All-Star, if not fringe-MVP candidate. Hayes stays healthy, takes a step as a hitter and wins a Gold Glove. Cruz gets promoted early on in the season and plays at a Rookie of the Year level. Keller shows he is for real, Bednar emerges as a legitimate closer and Roberto Pérez stays healthy, basically providing the same level of production Jacob Stallings did last year. Even throw in a couple wild cards, like Cole Tucker, Brubaker or a prospect establishing themselves as everyday players.
I’m still not sure that would be enough to elevate a team that lost 101 games last year to competitiveness.
I did end the last section with a “never say never,” and I wouldn’t go as far to drop a Mike Tomlin style “never say never, but never,” but the deck is stacked against them. This could, and really needs to be, a different story for 2023, or at least 2024.
I see this group improving, (don’t underestimate the value of being able to turn a Cruz or Contreras when a roster spot needs filled rather than having to scour the waiver wire), but only to the mid-to-upper 60s in terms of wins, maybe 70 if they catch a few more of those breaks I mentioned earlier this section.
MORE NEWS
• The Pirates made several roster announcements shortly after Tuesday's game.
Right-handed pitcher Jerad Eickhoff, infielder/outfielder Hunter Owen, outfielder Bligh Madris and catchers Taylor Davis, Michael Pérez and Jamie Ritchie were all reassigned to the minors.
The Pirates will be bringing in an external catching option to back up Roberto Pérez.
• Additionally, Sam Howard (back), Max Kranick (forearm), Anthony Alford (hand) and Luis Oviedo (ankle) were all placed on the 10-day injured list.
Also going to the injured list soon is Greg Allen, though it is not yet known if his hamstring injury will require a 10 or 60 day stint.
With Allen's injury and the other demotions, the Pirates have 26 active players as camp concludes, meaning another move can be expected to fill the 28th spot of the expanded roster.
• In positive injury news, Ke'Bryan Hayes (ankle) had a good practice, according to Shelton, and he is expected to be in the opening day lineup.
