To QB or not QB? That is the question.
All apologies to William Shakespeare, it's a massive question facing the Steelers right now as they continue to sift through the draft process.
With Ben Roethlisberger's retirement at the end of the 2021 season, the Steelers head into 2022 with a hole at sport's most important position.
First, they expressed faith that the duo of Mason Rudolph and Dwayne Haskins would be fine if they had to line up and play with that twosome.
Then, when free agency began a little more than a week ago, they added Mitch Trubisky to the equation, giving them three quarterbacks on the roster with NFL starting experience.
But as college pro days have been scratched off the schedule, Mike Tomlin and Kevin Colbert have been seen all over the country taking in the workouts of every top quarterback prospect, despite the fact some of those have led to the Steelers' braintrust skipping regular stops at places such as Ohio State and Penn State.
When you don't have a known commodity at the quarterback position, you have to do your due diligence.
The question, however, that must be asked is if the Steelers should be in the market to select a quarterback with the 20th pick in the draft.
History shows it's a dicey proposition.
While the Steelers acquired Roethlisberger with the 11th pick in the 2004 draft, history shows that in the drafts from 2001 to 2020 -- a span of 20 seasons -- selecting a quarterback outside of the top 10 picks is a risky move.
For every Aaron Rodgers, taken 24th in the 2005 NFL Draft after Alex Smith went first overall, there are dozens of quarterbacks who have failed when taken outside the top 10.
But there also are mistakes made in classes that aren't considered all that strong, as well.
In 2014, for example, there wasn't a clear consensus on which quarterback should be taken first. And none were considered a slam dunk prospect.
So, the Jaguars jumped in first, taking Blake Bortles third overall -- a move that surprised many. Then, the Browns took the next quarterback off the board at 22, grabbing Johnny Manziel. Neither of those two picks proved to be prudent.
But the next three quarterbacks selected were Teddy Bridgewater at 32 by the Vikings, Derek Carr with the fourth pick of the second round by the Raiders and Jimmy Garoppolo with the 30th selection of the second round by the Patriots.
None are superstars at the position, but all have had some level of success in the NFL as starters.
The very next season, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota went first and second overall to the Buccaneers and Titans, respectively. Winston has been OK, though the Bucs gave up on him three years ago and he has settled in with the Saints, while Mariota is now on his third NFL team.
This year's draft class lacks that star power at the top, but that doesn't mean that one, two or more won't be longtime starters in the NFL the way Bridgewater, Carr and Garoppolo have.
They're good, average-type NFL starters. But getting a star at the position outside the top-10 picks is highly unlikely.
"If you're going to take a, quote-unquote, flier on a quarterback at the bottom of the first round, I sure as heck would like to have a big payoff at least as a possibility," said NFL.com draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah.
And according to Jeremiah, there's only one player in this draft who fits that mold -- Liberty's Malik Willis.
"He's that guy. When you look at the quarterbacks in this draft, he's the one with all that upside," Jeremiah said. "I think you could look at some of the other guys and say, okay, they've got a chance to be starters, but I don't know that anybody is saying they've got a chance to be high-end starters. I think Malik Willis, while there's obviously plenty of risk and that's why he could be there at the end of the first round, there's also the potential of a big payoff. That would be the one that I could kind of target if he was there. Outside of that, I don't know that I'd be super fired up to avoid filling several other needs you could fill at that spot."
But that hasn't stopped the Steelers' brass from showing up to watch Willis, Pitt's Kenny Pickett, Matt Corral of Mississippi or Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder work out in the past week. They also figure to have a nice contingent on hard to track North Carolina's Sam Howell at his pro day on Monday.
That doesn't mean the Steelers don't like Trubisky's potential upside. After all, he was the second selection of the 2017 draft, ahead of Patrick Mahomes, who went 10th overall to the Chiefs, and Deshaun Watson, who went 12th to the Texans.
In fact, this year's draft class might be more like that one than any other in recent history. There were mixed reviews on all three of those players.
Trubisky had talent but had been just a one-year starter at North Carolina. Mahomes had talent, but had a losing record in college at Texas Tech. And the "Air Raid" quarterbacks -- the offense in which Mahomes played in school -- hadn't had a lot of success in the NFL. Watson, meanwhile, was seen as a raw passer, despite having led Clemson to a national championship.
But all three had teams trade up to get them. Kansas City and Houston had been playoff teams and had to make big moves to go up and get Mahomes and Watson, while the Bears slid up one spot to acquire Trubisky, moving from 3 to 2.
The point being, if you identify a quarterback you think can be a franchise quarterback, moving up to get him isn't a stretch. That's why the Steelers are doing their homework on this draft. They want to be certain there's not a Mahomes or even a Carr hiding in this class.
The thought seems to be -- outside of Willis -- there isn't a player teams feel that way about in this draft. That is perhaps why we've seen so much quarterback movement in trades and free agency already this offseason.
"If you have a quarterback that you think is a really good player and you think is a solid starter, you would take a solid starting quarterback over maybe an exceptional player at another position. You'd do that," Jeremiah said. "To me, when you look at some of the gap in this year between some of the top position players and the quarterbacks, it's going to be a little bit more difficult. That's why I say it's going to be kind of a -- see who's going to blink and do it first. There is going to be a sizable gap between the quarterback decision they have to make there versus their highest available player. I'd be very surprised if the position player wasn't carrying a much higher grade.
"That's the tricky part about this draft."
