Stumpf: Transformative year begins in Bradenton

BRADENTON, Fla. -- When Ben Cherington took the job as Pirates general manager in November of 2019, it was a given that the roster he inherited would be greatly overhauled.

Now, as his third spring training as GM is getting underway, there are just seven players from that original 40 man roster still with the team. In order of their Pirates debut, they are: Kevin Newman, Cole Tucker, Bryan Reynolds, Chris Stratton, Mitch Keller, JT Brubaker and Sam Howard.

That number could dwindle further this spring. In fact, there could be quite a bit of roster turnover this spring.

Not just because Reynolds is a potential trade chip (the Pirates are doing due diligence by listening to offers, not actively shopping him, but that won’t stop the rumor machine). And not just players who were claimed off waivers and are teetering on the edge of being rostered or not, like Greg Allen and Eric Hanhold.

I’m talking about what happens to Newman, Tucker and Michael Chavis if they get outplayed by Oneil Cruz, Rodolfo Castro and Diego Castillo? If Mitch Keller and Bryse Wilson don’t stand out in rotation battles compared to Miguel Yajure, Roansy Contreras and Max Kranick? If Jared Oliva or Anthony Alford can’t compete with the three prospect outfielders who had their contracts selected this winter (Travis Swaggerty, Canaan Smith-Njigba and Jack Suwinski).

With the exception of Alford, all of those players above could be optioned to the minors. (Including Wilson, who qualifies for a fourth option year, per a league source). That’s not to suggest all of them will bust or would get waived if they don’t spend the entire year on the major-league roster. Some have even had intriguing offseasons, with Keller in particular ramping up the velocity to triple digits in bullpen sessions with what looks to be a much freer, whippier movement.

But this is the make or break year for a lot of players on this roster. That wave of prospects will start taking up a lot more roster space starting in 2023. 

Spring training is the start of another transformative year from the Pirates roster, as it starts to move away from these awkward transitional seasons between what Cherington inherited and the mostly homegrown group that is being built. The difference is 2021 was marked by veteran players nearing the end of their team control who could be flipped for prospects. In 2022, it’s determining if these young players could be part of that future core or not.

It starts Tuesday with the first full-team workout at LECOM Park.

• I understand that the Pirates made a trio of signings – José Quintana, Yoshi Tsutsugo and Roberto Pérez – shortly before the lockout went into effect, and that many of their more notable free agent signings a year ago (Tyler Anderson, Todd Frazier, Trevor Cahill) came after camp had already opened. The same thing happened in 2020 when Jarrod Dyson signed after position players had started to report.

Still, it’s odd to see them mostly standing pat so far post lockout, with the only moves being claiming lefty Aaron Fletcher off waivers and adding to the minor-league catcher pool with Taylor Davis. 

There’s a clear need for pitching, something that Cherington said shortly before the lockout began and confirmed to me via team source after. The designated hitter is going to be in effect, and if Tsutsugo is playing first, there isn’t a clear-cut option there. 

Like I said, Cherington is patient with the free agent market, but with a drastically shorter spring training window, one has to wonder how deep into camp the Pirates can go before signing someone, even to a non-roster invite deal.

• In the same vein, I’ll keep this thought short and sweet since DK nailed it in his latest baseball column: It’s time to start spending more. If the Rays can make an offer for a Freddie Freeman, or even sign a Charlie Morton like they did a couple years ago, so can the Pirates. 

This roster is going to consist of a lot of pre-arbitration eligible players for the years to come. They can afford a large contract or two.

Sign a free agent to a multi-year deal to help welcome the core of minor-leaguers coming up. Take on a dead contract from the Padres for a year to net another prospect, Francisco Liriano-trade style. Or maybe extend Reynolds. Speaking of which…

• Are we all tired of the Reynolds trade talk yet? 

Could it happen? Sure.

Will it happen? Not so sure.

Should we buy anything into him reportedly turning down two contracts ahead of the 2021 season, when his negotiating power was at an all-time low? Even less sure.

Unlike the Andrew McCutchen trade that brought Reynolds to Pittsburgh, where McCutchen wasn’t his All-Star form for two-straight seasons and was entering the final year of his contract, Reynolds is under team control for four more seasons. Of course, more team control does increase his trade value, meaning the Pirates could get a haul of prospects.

And who knows, maybe one of those prospects may even turn out to be a Bryan Reynolds.

I don’t want to give a false impression here: The 2022 Pirates aren’t going to be competitive. The soonest they could be is 2023, assuming that the future core of Quinn Priester, Nick Gonzales, Liover Peguero, Matt Fraizer and company continue to develop in Altoona this year and hit the ground running in the majors. If they aren’t competing by 2024, something has gone wrong with what they’re building.

Reynolds is under team control through the 2025 season. Even if he doesn’t sign long-term, he can’t leave until the team has entered that competitive window. He could be the key player to those competitive teams.

Trading him makes that 2023 window even less likely. And at that point, what do you do with Ke’Bryan Hayes next offseason? He’ll have four years of team control remaining at that point too.

There’s a difference towards building with the future in mind and getting caught in a death spiral of always being two years away.

JOSH LAVALEE / PIRATES

Ke'Bryan Hayes at LECOM Park.

• I keep referencing that future core. Priester, Gonzales and Peguero are all getting their second invite to major-league spring training before they reach Class AA. That mostly has to do with the unusual circumstances these last two springs between the COVID-19 protocols and the lockout shortening spring, but they’re getting major-league experience they wouldn’t normally have.

Can’t help but wonder how big an impact that will have as they continue their journey to reaching the majors.

• The Jacob Stallings trade came down to Cherington deciding to flip him when his value was at an all-time high. Part of that was because he just won a Gold Glove. The other part is because this year’s catcher’s market is so thin.

They did sign Pérez, a two-time Gold Glover who could match Stallings’ production if he stays healthy. That’s far from guaranteed. He’s been sidelined with shoulder injuries each of the last two seasons and went on the 60-day injured list for a ring finger fracture last year. 

Another lengthy IL stint could be disastrous for the Pirates, who don’t have another catcher on the 40 man roster. Michael Pérez had -0.9 WAR as a backup last year. Davis is a journeyman minor-league catcher, as is Jamie Ritchie, who turns 29 next month and has yet to reach the majors.

Davis won’t be ready for the majors until next season, meaning Carter Bins is the only prospect who could potentially be called up later this season. Bins struggled in his jump to Class AA, but that shouldn’t detract from his strong first half in his first full season of pro ball.

“Obviously it’s a big adjustment [going up to Class AA],” Bins said at Pirate City recently. “The big thing I noticed was the bullpen arms were a lot better, guys throwing 95 or 98 mph out of the ‘pen. In High-A, only one or two guys out of the ‘pen were throwing that hard. Seemed like every arm was elite going up to Class AA.”

Outside of a trade, there isn’t any way to supplement this catcher group. A lot is riding on Roberto Pérez staying healthy and Bins improving in case he is needed in the majors.

• Cruz is going to be the main character this spring training, no matter what he does.

If he struggles, it’s a story. Maybe it means he needs more time in the minors.

If he crushes the ball, can you really keep this kid in the minors for the start of the season? Especially since the new collective bargaining agreement could reward the Pirates with draft picks if he finishes in the top three in rookie of the year voting or punish them by giving him a full year of service time anyway if he finishes in the top two.

Last year the Pirates had three rookies make the opening day team: David Bednar, Wil Crowe and Luis Oviedo. Oviedo was a Rule 5 pick so he had to either make the team or be returned, and Crowe was up to fill roster space in the short-term before being sent back down. But Bednar earned his spot with a stellar spring, and while he had some big-league service time with the Padres, the Pirates did right by the player and gave him the opportunity he earned.

They need to do the same with Cruz. If he earns the job out of spring, give it to him.

• Right now, I have Bednar and Stratton penciled into the bullpen and an expectation that Blake Cederlind will be ready at some point this season once he has fully recovered from the Tommy John surgery he had almost exactly a year ago. 

After that, your guess is as good as mine. It may be foolish to even try to project a bullpen right now.

So here’s a foolish endeavor: On opening day, Bednar is the closer and Stratton is a set-up man. Two spots go to either free agents (maybe Richard Rodríguez) or a Class AAA reliever making the jump to the show (Yerry De Los Santos, Hunter Stratton, Cam Alldred, Blake Weiman etc.). Anthony Banda, Sam Howard, Duane Underwood Jr. and Nick Mears round out the bullpen.

• I may as well do this for the rest of the team. My way-too-early prediction for the opening day rotation: Keller, Quintana, Wilson, Zach Thompson and the opening day starter, Brubaker.

If rosters are expanded in April, I’ll also predict that the Pirates use a six-man rotation since they immediately play 16 straight games without an off-day starting April 9. That sixth man will be Yajure, who could be permanently installed in the rotation come May.

• And the way-too-early prediction for the opening day lineup: DH Ben Gamel, 3B Hayes, CF Reynolds, 1B Tsutsugo, 2B Chavis, SS Cruz, LF Alford, C Roberto Pérez, RF Allen.

I’ll admit, I don’t feel extremely confident in the accuracy of that lineup, both in order and half of the players in it. It will be an interesting spring.