Carter's Classroom: How Steelers could live with Rudolph's limitations

Like it or not, Mason Rudolph has the inside-track position to be the Steelers' starting quarterback next year with how the team's roster is currently built. Kevin Colbert's plan to bring four quarterbacks to training camp next season to duel it out for depth chart spots all but spells out his opportunity to not have a big name quarterback join the roster before then.

If the Steelers were to trade for an Aaron Rodgers, a Russell Wilson or a Derek Carr, there wouldn't be a need for a fourth arm. Each of those names and any passer in the same conversation as them would be a presumed starter and the team would have the same quarterback hierarchy as it did last season, just with another name replacing Ben Roethlisberger with Rudolph and Dwayne Haskins behind him.

But what has Colbert and Mike Tomlin so convinced that the team would be best suited with Rudolph going up against Haskins, a rookie and journeyman-level free agent quarterback in camp? 

Most likely, that's a signal of the team's intended direction to build with a focus to making the defense an elite group and developing an actual threat of a run game with an improved offensive line in front of Najee Harris.

Such a commitment would leave little room for signing a big name at quarterback in free agency to take up salary cap space, trading up to ensure the team got one of the top quarterbacks in this draft class, or making a big trade that would cost salary cap space and draft picks.

So the team will ultimately be looking for whoever quarterbacks the Steelers in 2022 to be much more of a game manager than Roethlisberger was for most of his career. That may sound like a plan that won't produce a lot of wins, but look at how the Steelers pulled off a 9-7-1 record with the league's worst rushing defense and one of the NFL's worst offensive lines, and it makes sense.

Roethlisberger only eclipsed 300 passing yards twice in 2021, both in losses, and only threw three touchdowns twice, also both in losses. Those two statistics haven't occurred in the same year for Roethlisberger since 2010, and that was a season when he missed the first four games due to suspensions.

In 2021, the Steelers' formula to winning was simply controlling the ball on offense and winning game with defense. Eight of the team's nine wins came when the defense both limited an opponent to 20 or fewer points and either tied or won the turnover battle. While the team lost every game (0-3) Roethlisberger either threw three touchdowns or over 300 yards, it was 7-1 when Roethlisberger simply didn't throw an interception. 

That's a stark contrast from the offensively powered Steelers teams of the mid-2010s when Roethlisberger was at his statistical best. It was also a necessity with Roethlisberger's limited arm strength and mobility and the limitations forced on the rest of the offense because of a bad offensive line.

Colbert and the Steelers' 2022 plan most likely fills in the holes on defense to improve them to being much better against the run and making them a top five or better unit in points and yards again like they were in 2019 and 2020. Add in a concentrated focus to fix the offensive line, and the strengths that helped the Steelers scrape together nine wins in 2021 could help them power their way to the same amount of wins or more in 2022.

But that's where quarterback comes into play, because it would still require someone who wouldn't make the key mistakes that would bury the Steelers. But that quarterback would also have to be able to take the easy throws when made available to him, and at least be competent so that when teams sold out on the run or had a breakdown on defense, that the Steelers could take advantage.

This is what Rudolph couldn't consistently do in his only start of 2021 when the Steelers played the Lions. But it's important to look at why those mistakes happen. His lone interception came on an overthrow for Kalen Ballage in the flat, something that's easily explained away as a misfire or miscommunication between the players about how deep Ballage's route was supposed to go.

But what of his other mistakes? What would be most troubling is if Rudolph wasn't reading defenses by his fourth NFL season and looked completely lost. That's not really the case when you watch his tape, but he does look unsure of his reads. 

Take a look back at his misfire to RayRay McCloud on a third-and-goal when the Lions double-teamed Pat Freiermuth and left McCloud wide open. McCloud initially sat on his route as that was his read, but when Rudolph hesitated to throw the ball, McCloud worked his way to the end zone as he was uncovered. Rudolph threw the ball to where McCloud tried to initially sit, and the miscommunication between the two led to a missed opportunity that could've won the Steelers the game:

So why was Rudolph so out of sync with his receivers?

It's important to remember that Rudolph only learned the day before the game that he was going to start, as Roethlisberger was a Saturday addition to the Steelers' COVID list. The second team quarterback gets in work during the week, but doesn't get nearly as much time as the first team quarterback to work on the timing patterns drawn into the weekly game plan.

That's important context to Rudolph's most recent start, even if former Steelers like Ryan Clark think that Rudolph starting next season would be a death knell to the franchise:

Sure, Rudolph is a big step down from Roethlisberger's best days at quarterback. But none of those best days were in 2021. Rudolph may only have one game with over 300 passing yards, in a loss to the Browns in week 17 of the 2020 season, and has never thrown three touchdown passes in a game, but those are also things the Steelers might only need a couple times in 2022 with the way they build the roster.

Here's another timing pattern Rudolph missed on when Diontae Johnson executed a solid curl pattern to get open 15-yards downfield. The pass sails on Rudolph and Johnson was unable to bring it down, leading to a missed third down opportunity:

Throws like that on curl patterns have a very limited window of when the ball can be released. The initial break by the receiver back towards the line of scrimmage usually backs off a cornerback, but if the ball comes in even a second late, it can lead to a breakup or an interception.

The timing of the throw was there, but Rudolph's placement on how far Johnson would run was off. That's why the quarterback position is so intricate, because everything from the timing of routes to the placement of the pass based on the depth of a route play factors into the line between success and failure.

Here's another example of Rudolph making the right read on a run-pass-option for the Steelers and throwing it to Freiermuth. But Rudolph was too worried about a linebacker who had taken themselves out of the play, and threw the ball far too late before Freiermuth's window was closed, resulting in an incomplete pass:

These mistakes aren't about his arm not being strong enough, like Devlin Hodges, or about being too lost in the game plan to make proper reads. They're about timing, chemistry and built experience.

Rudolph has shown that when one of his primary reads is schemed open, even if it's a tighter passing window, that he can hit those throws in rhythm. Watch how he processes this smash passing concept against the Lions' cover 2 defense. The point of the smash concept is to have one receiver run a short hitch to draw up the cornerback to the line of scrimmage while another receiver runs a deeper corner route ten yards behind the hitch.

Here, the hitch was Johnson and the corner was McCloud, and it gave Rudolph just enough of a window for him to hit McCloud on the sideline for a first down after Rudolph read the field and made the proper throw:

Those are the reads and throws that Rudolph needs to make routine in his game.

Roethlisberger became the best version of himself when he was able to see the whole field and dissect defenses when they made a mistake regardless of where his primary read was. All the Steelers will be asking Rudolph, or whomever starts next season, is to just take the primary read, and maybe an occasional secondary read, when they're available.

Those mid-2010 Steelers teams where Roethlisberger was throwing multiple games with six touchdowns or throwing over 500 passing yards were necessary with how those rosters were built and why he commanded the highest salary cap hit every year for a decade.

But Rudolph won't be even close to that with his cap hit of roughly $4 million, and neither would be any rookie they draft or journeyman quarterback they sign. That's what will allow for the team to sign free agents to better fit the mold the team needs and focus their drafts on building the roster.

And if you're wondering about mobility for Rudolph in Matt Canada's offense, remember the Steelers aren't necessarily committed to finding the next Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen. They just want someone who can take the rushing yards available when a defense's gap integrity breaks or throw on the run when available.

When Rudolph broke his 17-yard scramble against the Chiefs in the regular season, I thought from the live angle that he just bounced off a defender who didn't wrap and lucked into those yards. But look closely from the end zone angle and you can actually see Rudolph did feel the rush coming and preemptively ducked Chiefs edge rusher Mike Danna to escape the rush and create the space to run:

Rudolph's no escape artist, but that's the kind of bare-minimum athleticism the Steelers would need from their 2022 quarterback.

Make no mistake, the Steelers' passing offense will be mediocre at best next season if the team doesn't commit to getting a higher caliber of quarterback than Rudolph, Haskins, a rookie quarterback or a journeyman free agent like Tyrod Taylor, Marcus Mariota or Mitchell Trubisky.

But that might be something Tomlin and Colbert are okay living with for next season, especially if they can make serious progress on the offensive line and make the Steelers' defense an elite unit again. But again, living with Rudolph or a similar quarterback would be temporary.

Doing so would set up Colbert's successor at general manager with an opportunity for the Steelers to commit to trading up for a quarterback in a class that projects to have passers of a higher pedigree like Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud. 

Allowing the team to focus on building the rest of the roster so that the next franchise quarterback eases into their position without needing to carry the team might be the optimal move for the franchise. It was what the Steelers did in the early 2000s before drafting Roethlisberger in 2004, as he worked with a strong offensive line, running game, and a great defense in his first couple seasons that led to an AFC Championship appearance and a Super Bowl win.

In the meantime, the Steelers don't need to look far for other team models that have succeeded with mediocre passing attacks. Just look at how Jimmy Garoppolo never had a game with three passing touchdowns in the 49ers' run to the NFC Championship where they fell just three points short to the eventual Super Bowl champion Rams.

Garoppolo did have four games when he threw for over 300 yards, but the 49ers were 2-2 in those games. When you look at the games when Garoppolo simply avoided throwing an interception, the 49ers were 7-0.

Less may be more, if the Steelers make the right moves around the roster.