North Shore Tavern Mound Visit: Prospects on top-100 trajectories

After further evaluations by trusted prospect evaluators, things are continuing to look bright for the Pirates’ farm system.

Last month, Baseball America named six Pirates in their top 100 list: Oneil Cruz, Henry Davis, Roansy Contreras, Nick Gonzales, Liover Peguero and Quinn Priester. FanGraphs gave all six of those players at least a 50 future value (FV), meaning they will be on their top prospects list when it is released (they do not limit themselves to 100 and instead rank everyone who gets at least that grade). It’s a safe bet to assume that MLB Pipeline’s top 100 list will feature most, if not all, of those six players too.

Looking at how they were acquired, three of those six players were the Pirates’ most recent first-round draft picks, while the other three came via trade and had their stock go up. It’s that latter group that ultimately determines the worth of a farm system.

The Pirates have a good collection of high-level talent (no team has more prospects on Baseball America’s top 100) and depth (FanGraphs listed 61 prospects worth keeping your eye on in their farm system breakdown). FanGraphs’ article last week made sure to point out that the depth gives them more opportunities of finding a breakout candidate who can make an impact.

“Odds are that at least one of the sub-50 FV guys takes a major step forward over the next six months and there’s no shortage of guys with the underlying athleticism or tools to do so,” Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs wrote.

Who could be someone who takes that next step to either 50 FV or crack a top 100 list in 2023?

OF Matt Fraizer

Why he could make it: I profiled Fraizer earlier this offseason in my in-depth piece on how the Pirates are approaching player development. It was an easy choice because his career was in jeopardy after a shaky introduction in 2019, but he spent 2020 retooling his swing, focusing on a way in order to get his contact point out in front more.

“I was always told you have to get the ball deep,” he told me at the end of last season. 

That change sparked one of the biggest 180s we’ve seen a Pirates prospect make in quite some time. He was named the organization’s minor-league player of the year after hitting .306 with a .959 OPS and 23 home runs. 

Getting the contact point out in front more does lead to more pulled balls, but he also has the strength to go with pitches to center or left. Most of his power is going to go to right, but he doesn’t have to sell out for power there.

Fraizer has a good hit tool and 20-homer pop. Mix in some above average speed and he could flirt with a 20-20 season this year for Class AA Altoona. You can find other players with louder tools, but Fraizer has found a way to translate his skillset into games and shown that’s more than enough for him to be a power threat.

He is, in this reporter’s opinion, the Pirates’ best outfield prospect. 

Why he might not: Fraizer has two strikes working against him. The first is his age. Not to say 24 is old, but it is old for someone who is trying to crack a top 100 list for the first time. He will start the year in Altoona and could very well end in Indianapolis. Class AAA just doesn’t have a lot of new top prospects. If anyone is to look past that, I would suspect it would be FanGraphs. All he would need is to take one more step from 45+ FV to 50 to get that special recognition. 

The second is Fraizer has been a pro for three years after three years in college, and he only has one good season at both levels. This deserves a bit of an asterisk because a broken hamate cut his junior season short and hampered him in his introduction to pro ball, and the COVID-19 shutdown cost him another year. But there’s no way around it: He doesn’t have a good pedigree. Do you need one to be a good big leaguer? Absolutely not, but it is something that is taken into consideration when compared to other minor-leaguers. 

RHP Jared Jones

Why he could make it: Jones was the only draft pick the Pirates signed over slot value in 2020, and his appeal is obvious. He was hitting 99 mph in his age 19 season in Class Low-A Bradenton last year, and he’s shooting to crack triple digits in 2022.

“Ever since I hit high school and I hit 99, I've wanted 100,” Jones said in Bradenton in December. “Here I am two years later and I'm still at 99, so I really want that 100."

He also has a pair of breaking offerings that get 2,600-2,700 RPM of spin. The curveball was a quarantine project and is a bit more raw, but it does have a distinct, different shape than the slider, which can be a challenge for young pitchers.

Here is a slider from August:

And a curve, which has more downwards action:

One National League analyst told me that they could see Jones being the Pirates’ future top of the rotation pitcher, not Priester. That wasn’t a dig on Priester, but praising Jones, who has some of the best pure stuff in the system. 

Why he might not: Like many high school draft picks, Jones has some control problems that will need to be ironed out. It’s not necessarily a walk problem – his 11.3 BB% rate is high but not unmanageable in Class Low-A – but there were some misses in the zone, he had trouble consistently locating the fastball to his hand side and some intended chase pitches will fall too far away to fool hitters. Pure stuff can mask those issues in A-ball, but he’ll need to continue to develop as he rises through the system.

OF Rodolfo Nolasco

Why he could make it: When I told that analyst my idea for this week’s Mound Visit, the player they suggested was Nolasco. It’s not the first time I heard someone be really high on this 20-year-old outfielder, especially if you get your hands on his trackman data.

At age 19 last year, Nolasco posted an impressive 88 mph average exit velocity, which was already in line with the major-league average. A lot of those batted balls were in the air or line drives, leading to an impressive .961 OPS in 42 games in the Florida Complex League last season. 

That offensive output comes from two main sources. One is his bat speed, which the analyst made sure to highlight as being a big plus for him. The other is his frame. He’s officially listed at 6’1”, 175 lbs., but he’s clearly tacked on some muscle since that listing.

It’s been a while since the Pirates produced an impact player from their Dominican academy, and they have signed several high-profile prospects the last two years to try to jumpstart the process. Nolasco could potentially be the next player the Pirates signed out of the Dominican to become an impact player in the majors.

Why he might not: Just how much stock can you put into complex league stats and data? There simply isn’t a substitute for full-season baseball, so while Nolasco feasted against complex-level pitching, he was older and more physically developed than most of the pitchers he faced.

There were a couple notable red flags in that data, too, including a 24% swinging strike rate on non-fastballs and a tendency to chase. Neither is a dealbreaker, especially for a player making his first jump to stateside ball, but it’s going to be a tough journey through the minors if he doesn’t cut down on those whiffs on junk. 

Nolasco is the definition of boom or bust, and playing a full season of A ball will be a good indicator to see which way he will trend. 

Other players who could be top 100 down the road: Last year’s draft class has several members who could crack a top 100 list, most notably Bubba Chandler, Lonnie White Jr. and Anthony Solometo. Of that trio, I’d say Solometo has the best (albeit not necessarily great) chance of reaching top 100 status next season because I’ve been told he’s grown into some more velocity since being drafted. Keep an eye on them for 2024 lists.

Michael Burrows is probably in Fraizer’s boat. It’s a lot tougher to crack a top 100 after reaching the upper levels of the minors, but he was consistently sitting mid-90s last year with a high spin curve and greatly improved changeup. He arguably was Greensboro’s best pitcher last year. He’s someone who has greatly benefited from Josh Hopper and John Baker leading player development. 

Endy Rodriguez was seventh on both FanGraphs' and Baseball America’s lists of the Pirates’ top 10 prospects where the other six were all top 100, so he’s not too far off as is. The defending Southeast League MVP has good feel at the plate and a solid collection of tools overall. He’ll move off catcher more next year because Henry Davis will be in Greensboro too and be used in more of a utility role.