COLUMBUS, Ohio — The NFL Draft was an obsession for Dane Brugler long before it became his chosen occupation.
The 1999 draft triggered his interest in how franchises scout prospects and decide which ones to select. While there’s always pressure to get high first-round picks correct, Brugler acknowledges that sometimes teams are at the mercy of the draft class.
“If the Browns had come back to the NFL in 1998 instead of 1999, Peyton Manning would have been their quarterback,” he said.
Brugler, 35, one of football’s most respected draft analysts, was a high school senior in 2004 when the Steelers landed Ben Roethlisberger with the No. 11 overall pick. Brugler was captivated with the whole Eli Manning saga and whether the Giants would trade for him.
Years later, what’s truly remarkable about the 2004 draft is that the first three quarterbacks selected, Manning, Philip Rivers and Roethlisberger, all enjoyed long and prosperous careers.
How many times in NFL Draft history has each of the top three QBs played in at least 200 games? Once. In 2004.
How many times in NFL Draft history has each of the top three QBs been named to multiple Pro Bowls? Once. In 2004.
How many times in NFL Draft history have at least two of the top three QBs led their teams to Super Bowl titles? Once. In 2004.
There have been other outstanding quarterback classes over the years, but somewhere among the top three selections at least one has not played to expectation. Into every draft, a Ryan Leaf must fall.
The Steelers could not have picked a better year to go 6-10 than in 2003 as it earned them the right to draft Roethlisberger. He was the third quarterback chosen, and the one sure-fire Hall-of-Famer.
“That’s very rare, especially to have three of those guys that early in the top-11 picks, and they all work out,” said Brugler, a draft analyst for The Athletic. “There’s the 1983 class with John Elway, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino (with several other quarterbacks sprinkled between them), but besides that, there’s almost nothing like the 2004 class. It’s a fascinating group.”
Over the past 40 years, few pro sports markets have had a knack for being bad in the right draft cycles quite like Pittsburgh. In a remarkable three-year window (2003-2005), the Steelers and Penguins used their top picks to select four future Hall-of-Famers in Marc-Andre Fleury, Roethlisberger, Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby. The Steelers also landed Hall-of-Fame safety Troy Polamalu with the No. 16 choice in 2003 coming off a playoff season. Those five athletes helped combine to win five world titles.
And we haven’t even mentioned Mario Lemieux, who was selected No. 1 overall in 1984 and evolved into one of hockey’s five greatest players.
“The key is timing,” said TNT hockey analyst Ed Olczyk, a former Penguins player and coach. “Timing is often everything (in the draft) and having a plan and staying with it. Pittsburgh has been pretty good at that.”
As the Steelers bid farewell to Roethlisberger and the Penguins enjoy the final years of Crosby and Malkin, the city’s two marquee organizations will soon be searching for the kind of generational talent that has made Pittsburgh one of North America’s biggest winners since the early 1990s.
No matter the quality of the scouting departments and the ability of men like Bill Nunn to stock the 70s Steelers with later-round gems, you often need a top prospect to deliver silverware to the trophy cases. And sometimes draft classes offer a JaMarcus Russell or Nail Yakupov at the top of the boards instead of a Manning brother or Lemieux.
Mike Tomlin understands the task confronting the Steelers as they look for Roethlisberger’s replacement.
“It's a tough challenge, man, it kind of makes you uneasy,” Tomlin said. “But I've learned to run to those challenges. I've learned to appreciate those challenges. The uncertainty surrounding them is inspiring to me in terms of producing work.”
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MIKE FABUS / STEELERS
Ben Roethlisberger stands between Bill Cowher and Art Rooney II after his 2004 draft selection.
The Steelers went two decades between franchise quarterbacks Terry Bradshaw and Roethlisberger. The Colts went one year between Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck.
Talk about being lousy at the right moment. Indianapolis drafted Luck with the first overall pick in 2012 after the Colts slipped to 2-14 when Manning sat out the entire 2011 campaign recovering from neck surgery. An organization that had reached the playoffs nine consecutive seasons with Manning, making two Super Bowl appearances and winning one, was right back in playoffs in 2012.
Luck guided the Colts to three straight postseason berths before injuries shortened his career and led to his premature retirement at age 29. In hindsight, Indianapolis should have drafted someone else and given Manning at least a chance to play again before releasing him — he won another Super Bowl with the Broncos in 2015 — but Colts management couldn’t have predicted Luck’s misfortunes. He was a four-time Pro Bowler in his six years.
“It’s hard to think of another team that went from one good quarterback to another that quickly when the second quarterback was a rookie,” Brugler said.
It’s highly unlikely the draft gods will expedite the Steelers' transition from Roethlisberger. Not when they’re selecting No. 20 overall in a class bereft of great prospects. Maybe they can swing a deal for an established quarterback. Chances are they enter next season with either Mason Rudolph or Dwayne Haskins under center.
The more intriguing question is whether they use a high draft pick on a quarterback in the spring or wait until 2023 when Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud and Alabama’s Bryce Young become available? If the Steelers drop below .500 next season they could enhance their chances of landing one of them.
“Teams are looking at this kind of stuff all the time,” Brugler said. “They are thinking, 'If we punt on the QB position for another year who is coming out?’ A lot of GMs don’t have the job security to feel confident enough to punt on a first-round QB and maybe take one the next year.”
That’s not expected to be an issue for Kevin Colbert, who’s likely to retire after the draft. Might he take a shot at Pitt’s Kenny Pickett or North Carolina’s Sam Howell on his way out the door?
“In this draft, there isn’t going to be a player who’s a top-15 quarterback at some point in their career in my opinion,” Brugler said. “Where last year, (with) the first five quarterbacks you could convince yourself of that pretty easily. Of course, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Could someone fall in love with these guys? Sure. There’s talent at the position, but it’s very different than last year. There’s not a ton of optimism when you watch these guys and when you talk to people around the league.”
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GETTY
Mario Lemieux led the Penguins to two Stanley Cups as a player.
Tanking is all the rage in pro sports. Rebuilding franchises eager to collect first-round picks are willing to part with proven veterans in a race to the bottom of the standings.
The Browns gutted their roster in 2016 and 2017, handing cornerback Joe Haden to the Steelers for nothing. The Philadelphia 76ers even gave their loser’s mentality a name, “The Process.”
“Where the Sixers changed everything was the concept of the multi-year tank,” ESPN basketball analyst Brian Windhorst said. “There are teams that are bad for several years in a row and get high picks, but the Sixers were the first team to basically announce, ‘We’re going to suck for multiple years in order to get multiple high picks.’”
The word “tanking” wasn’t part of the sports lexicon in 1983 when then-Penguins general manager Eddie Johnston did everything in his power to finish last and earn the right to draft Lemieux. He traded Norris Trophy-winning defenseman Randy Carlyle to Winnipeg at midseason and received no assets to help the 1983-84 club. When goaltending prospect Roberto Romano had the temerity to win a few games, he was sent to the minors in favor of Vincent Tremblay, who surrendered 24 goals in four starts, all defeats.
Pittsburgh lost its final six games and finished with a 16-58-6 record — just three points lower than the Devils, who publicly accused the Penguins’ management of throwing games.
“E.J. denies to this day that he did what he did,” said former Penguins vice president of communications Tom McMillan, who covered the club for the Post-Gazette. “I remember (Sports Illustrated reporter) E.M. Swift writing, ‘they traded Randy Carlyle for a first-round pick and a player to be named later . . . much later.’ The player was Moe Mantha and he didn’t play for the Penguins until the next season.”
Johnston’s gamble and Lemieux’s brilliance saved the organization. Lemieux led the Penguins to their first two Stanley Cups in 1991-92. As an owner, he's engraved his name on the Cup three more times.
“If Pittsburgh hadn't gotten Mario Lemieux that year, I think the franchise would have folded," former coach Lou Angotti told the Post-Gazette in 2004.
For better or worse, the Penguins gave the sports world a blueprint for how to build a contender through internal sabotage. Sometimes it works, as in the case of the Cleveland Cavaliers tanking for LeBron James, and sometimes it fails spectacularly, as in the case of the Sabres.
There’s also times when losing, intentionally or otherwise, doesn’t pay off because the reward isn’t worth the hardship. Some top picks don’t evolve into franchise-altering players like Fleury, Malkin and Crosby. The Rangers’ recent rebuild has them contending for the playoffs, but their No. 2 overall pick in 2019 (Kaapo Kakko) and their No.1 overall pick in 2020 (Alexis Lafreniere) aren’t difference makers.
Meanwhile, the 2004 Capitals won the draft lottery and the chance to select Alex Ovechkin and the Penguins ended up with the NHL’s best-ever consolation prize in Malkin.
"Think about that," McMillan said. "The second pick after Lemieux was Kirk Muller, who was a nice player but not a superstar. Same with Bobby Ryan who was taken after Crosby. But after Ovechkin, the Pens get Geno. Unbelievable."
AHL commissioner Scott Howson, who served as an executive for the Blue Jackets and Oilers, marvels at the good fortune that's smiled on cities such as Pittsburgh.
"From Mario to (Jaromir) Jagr to Fleury to Malkin to Crosby. That’s almost unfair," Howson said. "The Penguins and the Oilers have had a lot of luck with franchise players. And there’s other teams that haven’t had one of those type of players. You're absolutely correct in saying you've got to be bad at the right time.”
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GETTY
Marc-Andre Fleury and Sidney Crosby ride in a Stanley Cup parade through the streets of Pittsburgh.
Imagine how the Browns must be feeling these days. A year after beating the Steelers for their first postseason win since 1994, they failed to reach the playoffs let alone fulfill their Super Bowl aspirations.
No NFL club in recent memory has put more effort into bottoming out than the Browns. While their roster is much improved, serious questions surround Baker Mayfield’s future in Cleveland. His injuries and inconsistent play have jeopardized his hold on franchise-savior status.
In a quarterback-driven league, Nick Chubb’s powerful legs can only take the Browns so far. What’s worse is they might see another Ohio-bred superstar and his collection of talented receivers dominate their division again. First, Roethlisberger. Now, Joe Burrow.
“Burrow was unquestionably the top player in the (2020) draft,” Brugler said. “I don’t know how you could have watched him that year at LSU and say, ‘I don’t think that’s going to work in the NFL.’”
The Bengals didn’t need to tear down their roster over multiple years to earn the right to select him No. 1. They just went 2-14 in the right draft cycle.
For the Browns, the answer was not as clear cut two years earlier as neither Mayfield nor Sam Darnold was leading his college team to an undefeated season and a national title. Meanwhile, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson weren’t seen worthy of the first overall pick.
“I remember when the Browns met with (Allen) and people lost their minds,” Brugler said of the quarterback selected at No. 7 overall by the Bills. “It was like no way they would consider him. It’s complete revisionary history.”
There’s little question Myles Garrett, the No. 1 overall pick in 2017, has played to expectation, but the rival Steelers have gotten better value with T.J. Watt, who they chose No. 30 in the same draft.
“He better win that Defensive Player of the Year,” Cam Heyward said of Watt, who tied the NFL single-season sack record this season. “I know there’s a lot of great players out there and I know T.J. is deserving of the Defensive Player of the Year.”
Watt sacked Mayfield four times on Jan. 3, the night Pittsburgh fans saluted Roethlisberger for a final time at Heinz Field.
Much has changed since the Steelers drafted Big Ben in 2004. After years of struggling to incorporate college spread quarterbacks into the pro game, NFL offensive coordinators have unlocked their potentials.
The league is teeming with young stud quarterbacks, who feature the kind of mobility that Tomlin said he desires. Burrow. Jackson. Allen. Justin Herbert. Patrick Mahomes. Maybe even Trevor Lawrence. That’s just in the AFC. Now, it’s the Steelers who are tasked with finding the next one.
“Uneasy,” as Tomlin put it, is a good word for the feeling that grips Pittsburgh's fan base heading into the offseason. It might take a few years of losing to place the Steelers in position to draft another franchise quarterback, but they shouldn’t need to hit rock bottom like the Pirates or replace Colbert with the 86-year-old Johnston to complete the mission.
It’s all about being in the right place on the draft board at the right time. The Steelers and Penguins have the championship banners to prove they are up to the challenge.
