ALTOONA, Pa. -- Penn State's running game was abysmal this past season, but there is immediate help on the way in star running back Nick Singleton, the national high school Gatorade Player of the Year in 2021.
The question I've received the most about the Nittany Lions next season has centered around if No. 1 quarterback recruit Drew Allar will get a chance to play much as a true freshman for the Nittany Lions.
But the second-biggest question -- and really the more pressing one all things considered -- is how much of an impact Singleton will make in his true freshman season. Because the Lions were so bad running the ball in 2021, and given Singleton's hype, it certainly makes sense that many fans believe he should be able to step right in and be a huge factor right off the bat.
Will that be the case?
My default answer with true freshman quarterbacks is that, no, I rarely see them making a giant splash right away simply because the college game is so much different, faster and more challenging than high school.
Generally, the same can be said for running backs. Even guys who put up huge numbers in high school. The reason is because most of those guys are just so much better -- bigger, faster, stronger -- than everyone else in high school that you never truly know two things:
1. How legit are those numbers?
2. And how will the young man adjust physically and mentally once in college while facing outstanding defensive players?
It is, without a doubt, easier for a true freshman running back to become a star than a true freshman quarterback.
We saw that with Saquon Barkley, obviously, at Penn State in 2015. Here's the story I like to tell about Barkley that year.
Penn State had Akeel Lynch returning in 2015, and it was widely assumed he would be the primary tailback after rushing for 678 yards (4.6 ypc) with four TDs in 2014. But it was oddly peculiar how James Franklin never really praised Lynch or fully committed to him leading up to the 2015 season. Why did the coach not just go ahead and confirm what everyone believed -- that Lynch was going to be the starter and that was that?
Well, because Saquon Barkley, that's why.
There's no way anyone could have predicted Barkley would explode onto the scene the way he did as a true freshman that year. And that was certainly true after one game, as Barkley carried only once for 1 yard in Penn State's stunning 27-10 loss to Temple (the infamous 10-sack game on Christian Hackenberg).
But the next week, Barkley carried 12 times for 115 yards in a win over Buffalo, and did his first famous Saquon leap in that game. Suddenly, it became clear why Franklin never committed to Lynch before the season.
Barkley went on to rush for 1,076 yards and seven TDs as a true freshman, as his legend was born.
Before I get to two more recent freshman running back comparisons, here's one more note on the 2014-15 time frame. The worst rushing attack in Penn State history (since 1950 when stats are available) was 2014. The second-worst rushing season? Yeah, that would be the 2021 campaign. So it is kind of ironic that a potentially transcendent running back is coming in the year after the bottom fell out.
Franklin never committed to Lynch because he knew Barkley was special. This past season, Keyvone Lee led Penn State in rushing with 530 yards. With Noah Cain transferring to LSU, Lee would figure to be the primary tailback entering next season, but it's worth wondering if Franklin will fully commit to him with Singleton now on the team.
If Singleton, an early enrollee, impresses enough between now and fall camp, it wouldn't be at all surprising to see Franklin play coy with who will be the main guy going into the season.
The one thing everyone should keep in mind on that, though, is the early schedule. The Lions will open up with a Big Ten game on the road at Purdue. Lee has played in a bunch of big games for Penn State in two years, and it would stand to reason that Franklin may feel a little more comfortable giving him the ball in that situation over a guy making his college debut.
Then there's a trip to Auburn in week three. Again, will Franklin really want to rely heavily on a true freshman in that environment that early?
The guess here is no. For as good as Singleton might be eventually, I just see Penn State leaning on Lee early on as the top tailback and easing Singleton in more and more as the weeks go on. That is, as long as Lee can stay healthy, and if he is at least somewhat effective.
Hey, given how terrible Penn State's offensive line was at run blocking this past season, there is no guarantee that group will be much better next season. That also could be a huge factor into how much Franklin decides to play Singleton early -- merely trying to save him from getting hammered and perhaps losing some confidence if the line isn't all that strong.
Now, we did see two Big Ten powerhouse programs turn to true freshmen running backs this past season. Ohio State did that with TreVeyon Henderson, and Wisconsin did it with Braelon Allen.
Henderson's story was sort of like Barkley in 2015. He only had two carries in his college debut, then emerged as the starter not long after and had 277 yards in week three against Tulsa. He finished with 1,248 yards.
Allen had only 12 carries in Wisconsin's first two games, then had seven straight 100-yard games, culminating with a 228-yard effort at Nebraska. He finished the season with 1,268 yards.
So, if Ohio State and Wisconsin can turn to true freshmen running backs, it's certainly feasible that Penn State might do the same with the national high school player of the year in Singleton.
Yes, that absolutely is possible.
But the big difference between the three schools is and almost always has been the offensive line. The Buckeyes had a strong line, and Wisconsin always has an excellent line, so in theory, it's much easier to try a true freshman when you know he's going to have running lanes.
Franklin will have no such guarantee with his offensive line in 2022. You'd think the line couldn't possibly be as bad at run blocking as it was this past season, though, and if it does improve, then sure, Singleton could get to play a lot early.
It's all going to be very interesting to see how everything plays out this fall.
