ALTOONA, Pa. -- After back-to-back hugely disappointing seasons, what are the chances that Penn State can bounce back in 2022 and enjoy a really strong comeback campaign?
The easy answer is ... not great.
The longer, more complicated answer is ... maybe. But a whole lot of things will need to change in a big way for the Nittany Lions.
All discussions about what to expect in the 2022 season must include these three major components, in this order:
1. The offensive line
2. The schedule
3. The quarterback
Penn State went 4-5 in 2020 and 7-6 in 2021. How will the Lions finish in 2022?
Maybe it's silly to try and make a record prediction right now, before the transfer portal craziness heats up over the next few weeks. The Lions could lose some unexpected key pieces that will change a lot of the outlook in a negative way, or they could add some huge transfers who will make the team a whole lot better than anyone can predict right now.
But hey, we can still have fun trying to look ahead, making certain assumptions.
And with that said, my record prediction for Penn State next season is 7-5, the same record as this past regular season.
Here's what I'm thinking, and again, it all starts with those three huge elements listed above.
THE OFFENSIVE LINE
This clearly is the biggest problem in the entire program, and the Lions will NEVER achieve their goals until and unless they get this figured out. The running game this season was embarrassing, and it all starts up front.
I don't have the answers. I have theories. We all have theories. But none of us are getting paid to come up with the solution, and the folks who are getting paid haven't been able to solve the mess.
If fixing an offensive line were an easy thing, then all teams would be able to do it. Instead, if you're a fan of a struggling team at any level, chances are offensive line issues are a big part of the problem.
Here's one theory of mine when it comes to football fans (and media): We don't have any idea what the hell offensive linemen do, because 99 percent of football fans never played on the line, so we don't have the foggiest idea how to fix it.
That doesn't stop any of us from complaining about our team's offensive line. It's much easier to say, "The line sucks" than it is breaking down all the technical stuff on film to see what every dude is doing on every single play -- the ones that work and the ones that don't.
Who has that kind of time? Well, coaches do, and I'm sure Penn State's coaches have spent an enormous amount of time dissecting O-line film. They haven't figured it out yet, so they're gonna have to go back to the drawing board and stay there the entire damn offseason to try and figure it out.
My longstanding theory is pretty simple: Penn State plays a finesse offense with its RPO system, so the philosophy of the entire scheme leads to the linemen playing a softer, less physical style of football. That was even the case in 2017 with Joe Moorhead -- remember how Saquon Barkley was always getting hit at or near the line of scrimmage -- and looking back on it, that was the year opposing defenses came up with a better game plan on how to defend Penn State.
We are three offensive coordinators removed from Moorhead, and Mike Yurcich brought his own Big 12 kind of system with him. But James Franklin still wants certain things from his offense and, I believe, is still trying to blend the old and the new. That's one problem.
The other problem, as I see it, is that Yurcich comes from a conference where teams can have much more success in a finesse offense, and so he falls into the trap of using that style, as well, as opposed to a traditional smash-mouth kind of Big Ten style.
Hey, maybe I'm oversimplifying things. But the bottom line is that, under Franklin, more often than not Penn State hasn't had the kind of toughness and kick-your-a** kind of mentality on the O-line that it takes to be a consistently successful running team in the Big Ten.
I'm not going to dive into personnel much here, in large part because I'm not certain the personnel will matter until the mindset of the program changes to just get tougher and meaner on the line.
Can Penn State do that next year? If it can, then the team will be able to run the ball and take pressure off the passing game, which could lead to more than seven wins.
THE SCHEDULE
Yikes! Here's what the Lions will be up against to start next season, and it just might be the most challenging early schedule in program history.
Sept. 3: at Purdue
Sept. 10: vs. Ohio
Sept. 17: at Auburn
Sept. 24: vs. Central Michigan
Oct. 1: vs. Ohio State
Oct. 8: at Michigan
Purdue, which went 9-4, will have QB Aidan O'Connell back next year. The trips to Auburn and Michigan surely will be tough. And Franklin is 1-7 against Ohio State, despite playing the Buckeyes close most years.
It's easy to predict at least three losses from that six-game stretch. The schedule gets much easier after those six games:
Oct. 15: vs. Illinois
Oct. 29: vs. Michigan State
Nov. 5: at Indiana
Nov. 12: vs. Maryland
Nov. 19: vs. Minnesota
Nov. 26: at Rutgers
That second-half slate doesn't look overly daunting, but then again, Penn State lost to Illinois this past season, for goodness sake. Given that, I'm not sure we can ever go into many Big Ten games just assuming the Lions will win. Oh, and when Minnesota comes to Beaver Stadium late in the season, it will have Kirk Ciarrocca as offensive coordinator, and you know he would love to beat his former team.
THE QUARTERBACK
There is some good news with Sean Clifford returning for a 17th season ... errr, sixth season.
Given that extremely difficult early season schedule, it will help having an experienced quarterback who won't be rattled. Clifford has played a bunch of big games in his career and has played well, at times, so the Lions should at least be competitive in those contests.
I just believe Penn State would have been better off going out and finding a better quarterback in the transfer portal. I just wrote extensively about Clifford being an average college quarterback yesterday following the Outback Bowl loss, so I'm not going to repeat all of it here.
This part is worth repeating: Franklin wants a veteran whom he can trust to mentor prized recruit Drew Allar next season, and the coach surely believes Clifford's leadership and work ethic will set a good example for the young quarterback. If Penn State were to bring in a transfer, you just never know what you're going to get from a leadership standpoint, and even if the guy is better than Clifford, he might not be as good of a mentor for Allar.
The major problem I have is that Clifford seems to be guaranteed a starting job for a fourth consecutive year, despite being remarkably average for most of his career. As I've said before, there is NO WAY a program such as Alabama or Georgia or Ohio State or Clemson or Oklahoma would ever just stick with a starting quarterback who has gone 11-10 over two seasons.
Does Penn State really want to compete with those kinds of programs? Then why on earth would it just stay with a marginal quarterback no questions asked?
Is there any reason to believe Clifford will not be the starter next year? No, I just don't think so, not at the start of the season anyway.
Clifford's experience and the tough early schedule will give him a major leg up over Allar and Christian Veilleux. Even if Franklin comes out publicly and says there will be a quarterback competition, don't believe him.
Maybe Allar really will come in and be awesome from the get-go, but that still won't mean Franklin will be willing to bench a three-year starter in favor a true freshman. If Clifford struggles the first few games, I can see Franklin turning to Veilleux or Allar, but again, not for the start of the season.
Now, could Clifford possibly turn in a Kenny Pickett type of final season and lead Penn State to tremendous year? My answer is no, not on his own. But if the Lions can get their offensive line issues fixed and establish a strong running game, then it would take pressure off Clifford and allow him to not have to feel like he has to do everything.
Clifford will not have Jahan Dotson back as his No. 1 receiver, and that will be a big loss for the offense. If Parker Washington can emerge as the next Dotson, then maybe the offense can find a way to produce.
But you know what, that's a whole lot of ifs on the offensive side, what with the line and Clifford improving and the receiver questions. I'm not at all confident all of those things will happen.
I'm not getting into the defense much here, but there there will be concerns having to replace a bunch of NFL-caliber players such as Jaquan Brisker, Arnold Ebiketie and Brandon Smith. Penn State also lost outstanding defensive coordinator Brent Pry, and while Manny Diaz looks like a great hire, he will have to prove it on the field.
So, there you go. I'm going with 7-5, and unless something major happens, I'll stick with that record throughout the offseason.
