Kovacevic: There’s a path to the playoffs, but it's dim without a W here

MINNEAPOLIS -- On the 15th of January at 3:35 p.m., midway through day that's midway through that month, the NFL's 'single-elimination tournament,' as Mike Tomlin often calls it, will formally open.

Either that, or we're actually already midway through it.

I mean, my goodness:

ESPN

Look, dispense with the Jets, Texans and Jaguars, and it's a 13-team free-for-all for seven spots. 

And within that, just for fun, consider that the Patriots at the very top of that field and the Dolphins at the very bottom are separated by three whole games. And that the Dolphins are among the NFL's hottest teams with five straight wins. And that the Dolphins beat the Patriots head-to-head. And that they meet again in the regular-season.

Are the Patriots, winners of seven in a row, the class of the conference again?

Well, that'd be slightly easier to swallow if Bill Belichick had allowed Mac Jones to attempt more than three passes the other night in Orchard Park. The winds were whipping and all that, but come on.

Could the Titans, Ravens or Chiefs be the class?

Well, the first two are being buried by injuries and should fall before long, and Kansas City ... maybe. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce aren't back to peak form, but the defense is more than compensating for that of late.

Chargers, Bengals or Bills?

Eh.

The only team up there with a tie?

Only this much is certain from the Pittsburgh perspective: It'll all at least feel like single-elimination from here on out.

"We keep saying every week, 'It’s a must win.' " Ben Roethlisberger observed a couple days ago on the South Side. "When you get to the playoffs, it’s must-wins. Because of the hole that we dug ourselves into—and even though we’re not really in a hole because of the way the AFC is — we’re still behind some teams and have to do some work. We can’t let up. Every game’s a must-win. Every game’s a playoff-type, playoff-caliber game. That’s the approach we have to take moving forward the rest of the way."

That begins -- no, resumes -- here tonight when the Steelers (6-5-1) and Vikings (5-7) kick off, 8:20 p.m. Eastern time, inside US Bank Stadium.

And for that matter, it might end here tonight.

Here's the full schedule for a close look at the current circumstance:

Yep. The Vikings are the weakest team on the remaining schedule. The Browns are .500 and all the rest, flawed or not, have better records than the Steelers. And a loss that drops them back to .500 themselves, being blunt, makes the rest a pipe dream. They'll need to take three of four to achieve the nine-win mark that still might not be enough for a wild card, which means they'd also have to beat Mahomes at Arrowhead.

This has to be a W. It just has to.

• That said, good luck prognosticating absolutely anything about this matchup of the only team to tie the Lions against the only team to lose to the Lions. There's not a surprise to be had.

• A banged-up Dalvin Cook, and no Adam Thielen, are just part of what should have the Vikings being dogs here. But there's more: Two offensive linemen are missing, three out of place. Two defensive linemen are missing.

So, why are the visitors three-point dogs instead?

See just above.

• The dumbest prognostication anyone can make regarding the Steelers in 2021 is that they'll control either side of the trenches. But between John Leglue's encouraging debut at left guard and Montravius Adams' often excellent debut at nose tackle this past Sunday, then factoring all of the aforementioned Minnesota absences ... it's at least conceivable. As far as I'll go.

• Speaking of Leglue, wow, please read this extensive piece by our Tom Reed:

• The Vikings have no one who can keep T.J. Watt from Kirk Cousins. Right tackle Brian O'Neill, formerly of Pitt, was rewarded with a five-year, $92.5 million extension a couple months ago, but he can't do it, either. 

What's more, because of the tattered state of the rest of Minnesota's line, it's fair to expect T.J. to do more stunting to the inside than usual. Path of least resistance 'n' at.

• Are serious football people still seriously considering anyone other than T.J. for NFL Defensive Player of the Year?

If so, feel free to drop the adjective. This isn't close.

• I'm not prepared to escalate this to an MVP debate yet, but here's something slightly compelling on that front: The Steelers' 37 sacks are most in the NFL, putting them in position to lead the league five straight years.

Team stat or nah?

• Najee Harris stat pack guaranteed to bring a smile, even though it's not related to the ground game: He's made 57 catches for 387 yards, a 6.8 average, and those have resulted in two touchdowns, 18 first downs and -- wait for it -- 27 missed tackles following a reception. The latter figure is nine more than any player at any position in the NFL.

Have I mentioned that he also picks up blitzes and does the dishes?

• Let's see those hands of everyone who'd hoped to sign Joe Haden for a couple more years.

Injuries are cruel, but they're more prevalent in 32-year-olds.

• Between Haden, Stephon Tuitt and Tyson Alualu, in addition to missing three very good players, that's $17.6 million in idle cap space.

• Ben would become a far more productive passer if more of his targets went to Najee, to Diontae Johnson and to Pat Freiermuth ... and if all Chase Claypool did was run straight-line decoy routes to tug at least one corner from the scene.

• Bold prediction: Cam Sutton pick.

• Pathetically easy prediction: One target, no catches for the artist formerly known as James Washington.

• Over-the-top prediction: 50-plus all-purpose yards of Benny Snell Football.

• If anyone's going to unleash hell in December, they can feel free to start up here. Minus-1 yesterday in the Twin Cities, though it's expected to rise up to a balmy 25 today amid some snow flurries. Not that it matters with the Vikings' mammoth home covered by an even more mammoth roof.

• Know what I think of the Steelers' quarterback situation for 2022?

I don't. As in, I don't think about it. At all.

This season, this final month, offers more than enough intrigue to keep me captivated. Try to process everything we could be witnessing over this span.

• No matter what happens tonight, it could never bring out the misery described in the previous Steelers-Vikings game I covered, all the way over in London in 2013. What a time that was.

• Try to picture how much Ben wants this game. 

Now try harder.

Now multiply that by all five of these remaining games.

• Thanks for reading, as always! See everyone in this same cyberspace tomorrow!