Pat Narduzzi's Panthers haven't finished it quite yet, but they've put themselves in a position to plant their flag in the ACC. Pitt hasn't had a season with nine or more wins since its 10-3 finish under Dave Wannstedt in 2009.
Sitting at eight wins, Pitt has a chance Saturday to not only surpass the eight-win bar that's been met three times under Narduzzi's tenure in 2015, 2016 and 2019, but also clinch the ACC Coastal division. Doing so would be the second time (2018) Pitt has done that since it joined the ACC in 2013.
It would also put Pitt in the best position to win the ACC Championship Game in its nine years with the conference. The Panthers haven't won a conference championship since it won the Big East in 2004 with Tyler Palko at quarterback.
But before any of that can happen, Kenny Pickett must lead Pitt to beat Virginia at Heinz Field Saturday.
• What: No. 18 Pitt (8-2, 5-1 ACC) vs. Virginia (6-4, 4-2 ACC)
• When: 3:32 p.m. Eastern
• Where: Heinz Field
• TV: ESPN 2
• Radio: 93.7 The Fan
• Satellite: Sirius 158, XM 193, SXM App Channel955
• Boxscore: Sidearm Sports
• Media notes: Pitt | Virginia
Top storylines
Pickett vs. Armstrong: Pitt's last step to clinching the ACC Coastal comes against one of the biggest names in the conference in Virginia's Brennan Armstrong. He's the only ACC quarterback with more passing yards than Pickett,
"We didn't score as many points," Narduzzi said of last week. "But that's why we're a team. We can't always just outscore guys, we have to beat them on defense too. I told our guys if they wanted to win, they have to shut them down. We were able to do that last week."
Armstrong is the ACC's leading passer with 3,557 passing yards, the only quarterback in the conference with more yards than Pickett's 3,517. Both are in the nation's top five quarterbacks in passing yards with Armstrong at third and Pickett at fifth, and even though they won't line up against each other on a given play, Pickett respects the challenge of knowing a quarterback of Armstrong's caliber leads the opposing offense.
"Have to be on point Saturday," Pickett said Wednesday. "There's a guy across from you that wants to beat you as bad as you want to beat them. It's great competition and we continue to do that on Saturday. The stakes are a bit different but that just makes us excited."
Armstrong didn't play for Virginia last week against Notre Dame as he recovered from an injury, but he's been day-to-day this week and Narduzzi said in his Monday press conference that Pitt was preparing for him to play.
If the Panthers want to show that Pitt football is for real moving forward, it has to plant its flag on this season. It's almost there, but one of the last steps in that process is Pickett outdueling Armstrong if he plays. And if Armstrong can't play, it's up to Pitt to put this game away.
Senior day: Pitt's 27 seniors and 13 super seniors have helped pave the way for the success the Panthers have achieved this season. It's not all about the seniors as sophomores like Jordan Addison and Calijah Kancey have been huge playmakers and juniors like SirVocea Dennis and Habakkuk Baldonado have emerged as stars, but the seniors have been leaders all year.
Pitt's leadership council, known as "The Eagles" to the team, is full of several seniors who've set the tone for their teammates all season long. Even early on after Pitt's disappointing loss to Western Michigan, they were the group, led by Pickett, that called a meeting for the team to come together and tighten up.
The Panthers did just that, winning four in a row, all by ten or more points, including its first three ACC games. After Pitt's loss to Miami, the Panthers have won two straight with a chance to have an even longer streak on its way to its first ACC Championship.
But beyond the impact of Saturday being a chance to punch Pitt's ticket to the ACC Championship Game, it's also the last home game at Heinz Field for at least 13 seniors, and potentially for other seniors who can choose to return next year because of the COVID-19 eligibility waiver offered to anyone who played last season.
Last year, Pitt allowed its seniors to choose if they wanted to experience Senior Day at Heinz Field regardless of their decision if they were to return to the program or go into the NFL Draft. Narduzzi explained in his Thursday press conference that the same opportunity would be afforded to seniors this season.
"Anybody that wants to be a senior Saturday, they'll be a senior," Narduzzi said. "Kids have to make decisions. But they don't want to not participate, think they're not going to leave and then not get their senior day and can't get that back after the fact. It's their decision for what they want to do. But with all those conversations, but take your time and make your decision like Kenny did. It's a business decision for everyone."
Players like Carter Warren, who's a senior but could gain one more year of eligibility, will have a tough decision. Pickett would've been a draft pick last season, but at best, a fourth round pick. Now, he's the top quarterback for Mel Kiper Jr.'s NFL Draft big board, and a consensus pick for the top rounds this year.
For Pickett, it's his last game at Heinz Field as a Panther. That on its own carries weight as he's wrecked scoring and passing records for the program. That alone makes this a must-watch game for all Pitt fans as a last chance to see Pickett light up a scoreboard for their alma mater on the North Shore.
Players to watch
Habakkuk Baldonado: I compared Baldonado to Patrick Jones of last season because of their exact measurements, but he's followed through with his brand of aggressive play.
Jones led the Panthers with nine sacks last season and posted 8.5 sacks in his junior 2019 season. Baldonado already has eight sacks on the season with two games to go. That included 1.5 sacks in Pitt's overtime win over North Carolina last week, when Baldonado led the Panthers' charge to record five sacks on Sam Howell.
If Pitt wants to disrupt Armstrong, it has to have a dominant pass rush that moves him from his launch spot and keeps him running to by time. Armstrong doesn't have the running prowess of Howell, so applying pressure to him could yield even better results this week. Look for Baldonado and Kancey to have a huge impact on the game.
Erick Hallett II: The secondary will be tested early and often in this game. Damarri Mathis, Marquise Williams, M.J. Devonshire and Brandon Hill will all have their work cut out for them. But Hallett, the team's free safety, could be the key to this game.
He's had his ups and downs this season with a bad game against Western Michigan but also heroic showings like his game with an interception and two pass breakups against Clemson. But he's trended upwards in Pitt's most recent games.
Look for how Hallett tries to keep the top on Pitt's defense against Virginia. Armstrong will take plenty of deep shots in this game, but if Hallett can stay ready to either break those up or limit those plays from being touchdowns to allow Pitt to play bend-but-don't-break defense, it could go a long way to victory.
Jared Wayne: Normally I would go for one of the top players in a position group here, but Wayne has a real chance to put pressure on Virginia as Pitt's second-best receiver behind Addison.
Virginia's defense has done a ton of adjusting this season each week, and can be expected to try and double-team and limit Addison with its secondary. But it can't take away all of Pitt's athletic weapons for Pickett, and that's where Wayne comes in to play.
Addison leads the country with eleven touchdown receptions on his way to being a semifinalist for the Biletnikoff Award. But the Canadian-born Wayne at 6-foot-3, 210 lbs. has come on strong. He's caught 37 passes for 566 yards and four touchdowns, all of which has come in the last five games while he's currently on a three-game streak with a touchdown.
He's also thrown a touchdown for Pitt against Tennessee, and has evolved into a legitimate receiving threat for Pickett. His most recent touchdown came in a 32-yard catch on a post pattern down the middle of the field I broke down in my latest analysis piece on Pickett.
If he gets on the board for Pitt, it could stress Virginia's defense that will try to take away Addison.
Behind enemy lines
Pass rush problems: Howell's offensive line gave up five sacks last week for North Carolina, putting the Tar Heels as the most-sacked team in the ACC with 39 allowed. But now, Pitt plays the second-most-sacked team in the ACC against Virginia, a team that's allowed 33 sacks.
That's where Baldonado and Kancey can play huge roles in this game. If Armstrong is hit early and often, he won't be able to get into rhythm and it could make life a lot easier for the Panthers' secondary.
Meanwhile, Virginia is also the worst pass rush team in the ACC with a conference-low 12 sacks on the season, while Pitt leads the conference with 36 sacks and is tied with Oklahoma State for having the second-most sacks in the country.
It's the perfect mix for Pitt's offense and defense to potentially give Pickett all the time in the world to show why he's a real candidate for the Heisman Trophy and bring all the pressure down on Armstrong to never give him the chance to match Pickett's production.
But don't think Narduzzi is looking at those numbers and underestimating anything the Cavaliers' defense might bring.
"Defensively they have a lot of different coverages and different fronts," Narduzzi said of Virginia. "They use three-down or four-down (linemen), they'll use exotic blitzes and things we haven't seen before. Special teams, they've got more fake punts than anyone. They've got a lot of different stuff to prepare for but our kids have handled it great."
But the challenge of using different defensive looks isn't something that shakes Narduzzi, as it's something Pitt's faced all season.
"All year they've done different stuff against us," Narduzzi said of opposing defenses. "Our offense is different from the spread offense of today. Against most offenses we know exactly what formations we'll see each game."
Pickett expressed a similar point this week.
"We've seen a lot of different defenses this year," Pickett said. "We prepare for one thing but then we see another. We've prepared for what they've shown, but we're going to be prepared to do what we've done all season and change on the fly. They've got a great team. It's going to be war Saturday at Heinz."
Look to see if Pickett gets all the time to process Virginia's defense and if he's able to up Pitt's average of 43.5 points per game and Virginia's 30.5 points allowed per game at the same time.
All the alignments: Make no mistake, Virginia's offense isn't simply about Armstrong's strong arm. The Cavaliers line up different players all over the offense with various formations and irregular numbers on players who are among the team's leading receivers.
While Dontayvion Wicks is the leading Cavalier receiver with 1,003 yards with number three on his jersey, Virginia's next-leading pass catcher wears number 98 in Keytaon Thompson. Thompson's designation on Virginia's roster is "FBP," which stands for "football player."
Virginia thrives off using all its players in various ways, and that's another aspect Narduzzi has worked on this week to prepare his defense.
"They've got 30 different personnel groupings," Narduzzi said of Virginia. "They've got receivers with 98 and tight ends with 99. Half the battle is finding out who's on the field on offense. Our guys have to know who plays what position. These aren't receiver and tight end numbers. It's a lot, but we've handled it well this week."
Look for Pitt's communication on Virginia's pre-snap motion to be vital between Hallett, Hill, Dennis, and the key off-ball defenders for the Panthers.
Prediction: Pitt 45-31
A few weeks ago after the loss to Miami, I had Pitt losing this game. But the way the defense played against North Carolina changed my outlook on the direction that group is headed for the season's climax. I still see Armstrong putting up some big plays in this game, but Pitt's defensive front presents too many challenges that will disrupt the Cavaliers' offensive rhythm.
On the other hand, the Cavaliers do not have the pass rush to get to Pickett and cause problems like the Tar Heels did last week. Now that Gabe Houy is back at right tackle, look for Pitt's pass protection to be better than last week and for Pickett to have plenty of opportunities to dissect Virginia's defense.
It will be close, but by mid-fourth quarter I see Pitt's defense snagging two huge turnovers that give the Panthers' offense the chance to build an insurmountable lead that locks up the ACC Coastal.
